Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Bergens Tidende and VG, 27 August–1 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.2% 21.4–25.2% 20.9–25.8% 20.4–26.2% 19.6–27.2%
Høyre 25.0% 20.1% 18.4–22.0% 17.9–22.6% 17.5–23.0% 16.7–24.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.6% 11.2–14.2% 10.8–14.7% 10.5–15.1% 9.8–15.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.5% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.5% 9.5–13.9% 8.9–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 10.4% 9.1–11.9% 8.7–12.3% 8.4–12.7% 7.9–13.4%
Venstre 4.4% 5.6% 4.6–6.7% 4.4–7.1% 4.2–7.4% 3.8–8.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.6–6.7% 3.3–7.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.0% 3.3–6.2% 3.0–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–44 40–46 39–47 36–51
Høyre 45 36 33–39 32–40 31–41 29–43
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–26 19–27 18–27 17–29
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 18–23 17–24 16–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 18 15–20 15–21 14–22 12–23
Venstre 8 10 8–11 7–12 7–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 6–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.7% 99.4%  
38 0.8% 98.7%  
39 3% 98%  
40 8% 95%  
41 12% 87%  
42 35% 75% Median
43 14% 40%  
44 18% 27%  
45 3% 9%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 0.4% 1.4% Last Result
50 0.2% 1.0%  
51 0.7% 0.8%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.6%  
30 1.2% 99.1%  
31 1.5% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 4% 93%  
34 4% 89%  
35 16% 85%  
36 37% 69% Median
37 8% 33%  
38 11% 24%  
39 5% 13%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.7%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.2%  
19 4% 95% Last Result
20 17% 91%  
21 14% 74%  
22 12% 60% Median
23 22% 49%  
24 7% 27%  
25 9% 20%  
26 5% 11%  
27 3% 6%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.9% 99.8%  
16 2% 98.9%  
17 6% 96%  
18 16% 90%  
19 16% 74%  
20 11% 58% Median
21 29% 47%  
22 6% 19%  
23 5% 13%  
24 4% 7%  
25 1.4% 3%  
26 0.7% 1.1%  
27 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100% Last Result
12 0.5% 99.7%  
13 1.3% 99.2%  
14 3% 98%  
15 6% 95%  
16 12% 89%  
17 19% 77%  
18 23% 59% Median
19 20% 36%  
20 9% 16%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 1.0%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.4% 100%  
3 0.1% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.5%  
5 0% 98.5%  
6 0.5% 98.5%  
7 5% 98%  
8 15% 93% Last Result
9 25% 78%  
10 34% 53% Median
11 10% 19%  
12 7% 9%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.8%  
3 0.5% 92%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 2% 91%  
7 17% 90%  
8 21% 73%  
9 30% 52% Median
10 13% 22%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100% Last Result
2 16% 99.6%  
3 0% 84%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0.1% 84%  
6 3% 84%  
7 29% 81%  
8 25% 52% Median
9 15% 27%  
10 9% 12%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 7% 99.4%  
2 12% 92%  
3 51% 79% Median
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 5% 28%  
7 15% 23%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 99.9% 93–103 91–104 89–105 87–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 99.3% 90–99 88–101 87–102 83–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 93 98% 87–96 86–98 85–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 94% 86–95 84–97 83–98 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 89% 84–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 28% 77–87 77–88 76–89 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 78 6% 73–83 71–85 70–85 67–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 77 2% 73–81 71–83 69–84 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 76 0.4% 71–81 69–81 67–82 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 70 0% 65–74 63–76 62–77 60–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 68 0% 65–73 63–74 62–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 61–69 60–71 58–72 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 58–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 57–63 56–64 55–66 52–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 52–59 51–61 50–62 47–65
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 49 0% 46–55 44–56 42–57 40–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 36 0% 32–40 30–41 29–43 28–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 1.1% 99.0%  
89 1.1% 98%  
90 1.3% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 3% 93%  
93 5% 90%  
94 6% 85%  
95 8% 79%  
96 6% 72%  
97 8% 66%  
98 7% 57%  
99 16% 50% Median
100 11% 35%  
101 7% 23%  
102 3% 16%  
103 8% 13%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 1.0% 2%  
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.5%  
85 0.2% 99.3% Majority
86 0.6% 99.0%  
87 1.2% 98%  
88 3% 97% Last Result
89 3% 94%  
90 4% 92%  
91 4% 87%  
92 10% 84%  
93 14% 74%  
94 6% 60% Median
95 19% 54%  
96 6% 35%  
97 7% 29%  
98 8% 22%  
99 4% 14%  
100 4% 10%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.7% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.0%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.3% 99.4%  
84 0.9% 99.1%  
85 1.0% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 5% 95%  
88 11% 90%  
89 9% 79%  
90 6% 69%  
91 3% 63% Median
92 7% 60%  
93 25% 52%  
94 4% 27%  
95 5% 22%  
96 8% 18%  
97 4% 10%  
98 3% 6%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.5% 1.4%  
101 0.4% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.9% 99.5%  
82 1.1% 98.7%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 8% 91%  
87 5% 83%  
88 4% 78%  
89 11% 74%  
90 9% 63%  
91 5% 54% Median
92 19% 49%  
93 6% 30%  
94 6% 23%  
95 9% 17%  
96 2% 8%  
97 2% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 0.7% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.2%  
101 0.5% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 1.0% 99.5% Last Result
81 0.7% 98.6%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 5% 94%  
85 5% 89% Majority
86 7% 85%  
87 5% 78%  
88 8% 73%  
89 7% 65%  
90 19% 58% Median
91 6% 39%  
92 8% 33%  
93 8% 24%  
94 6% 16%  
95 3% 11%  
96 5% 7%  
97 1.4% 3%  
98 0.5% 1.4%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.4% 99.0%  
76 1.3% 98%  
77 7% 96%  
78 5% 90%  
79 4% 84% Last Result
80 4% 80%  
81 9% 76%  
82 13% 67% Median
83 18% 54%  
84 8% 36%  
85 9% 28% Majority
86 4% 20%  
87 8% 16%  
88 4% 8%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.7% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 1.0% 98.9%  
70 0.8% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 5% 85%  
75 8% 80%  
76 10% 72%  
77 10% 62%  
78 7% 53% Median
79 19% 46%  
80 6% 26%  
81 5% 20%  
82 3% 15%  
83 5% 12%  
84 2% 7%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.8% 1.4%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.7% 99.3%  
69 2% 98.6%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 2% 96%  
72 3% 94%  
73 8% 91%  
74 8% 83%  
75 4% 74%  
76 14% 70% Median
77 18% 57% Last Result
78 8% 39%  
79 14% 31%  
80 4% 17%  
81 4% 13%  
82 2% 8%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.2%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 95%  
71 5% 91%  
72 6% 86%  
73 10% 81%  
74 8% 71%  
75 7% 63%  
76 25% 56%  
77 7% 31% Median
78 2% 24%  
79 4% 22%  
80 6% 18%  
81 8% 12%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.5% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.7%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 0.8% 99.1%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 94%  
65 3% 92%  
66 10% 89%  
67 5% 79%  
68 9% 74%  
69 14% 65% Median
70 16% 51%  
71 7% 35%  
72 8% 28%  
73 4% 19%  
74 6% 15%  
75 3% 9%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 3% 98.6%  
63 1.2% 96%  
64 3% 95%  
65 6% 92%  
66 10% 86%  
67 8% 76% Median
68 22% 68%  
69 10% 45%  
70 7% 35%  
71 9% 28%  
72 7% 19%  
73 3% 11%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.9% 3% Last Result
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.7%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 1.0% 99.4%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 1.0% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 5% 90%  
63 11% 85%  
64 7% 74%  
65 7% 66%  
66 13% 59% Median
67 20% 46%  
68 7% 26%  
69 9% 19%  
70 4% 9%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.2% 3%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.5%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 7% 97%  
61 4% 90%  
62 9% 86%  
63 11% 76%  
64 8% 65% Median
65 21% 58%  
66 9% 36%  
67 7% 27%  
68 7% 20% Last Result
69 6% 13%  
70 3% 6%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.4%  
54 0.7% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 9% 93%  
58 8% 85%  
59 12% 76%  
60 20% 64% Last Result, Median
61 14% 44%  
62 10% 30%  
63 11% 20%  
64 4% 9%  
65 1.5% 4%  
66 1.3% 3%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 1.2% 99.0%  
50 2% 98%  
51 2% 96%  
52 4% 94%  
53 5% 89%  
54 12% 84%  
55 8% 72%  
56 13% 63% Median
57 21% 51%  
58 8% 30%  
59 12% 21%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.6%  
41 0.9% 98.9%  
42 1.0% 98%  
43 0.4% 97%  
44 3% 97%  
45 4% 94%  
46 7% 90%  
47 6% 84%  
48 16% 78%  
49 18% 61% Median
50 11% 43%  
51 11% 32%  
52 5% 22%  
53 4% 17%  
54 2% 12%  
55 3% 10%  
56 3% 7%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 1.4% 99.5%  
29 2% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 4% 95%  
32 4% 91%  
33 7% 86%  
34 15% 79%  
35 9% 64% Last Result, Median
36 18% 55%  
37 13% 36%  
38 6% 23%  
39 6% 17%  
40 4% 11%  
41 3% 7%  
42 1.2% 4%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations