Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 27 August–2 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.2% 21.9–24.7% 21.5–25.1% 21.2–25.5% 20.5–26.2%
Høyre 25.0% 21.2% 19.9–22.6% 19.5–23.0% 19.2–23.4% 18.6–24.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.4% 11.4–13.6% 11.1–13.9% 10.8–14.2% 10.4–14.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.5% 8.6–10.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.1% 7.7–11.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Rødt 2.4% 5.1% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.1–5.6% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.0% 3.5–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–46 40–47 40–47 40–49
Høyre 45 36 36–40 36–42 35–44 34–45
Senterpartiet 19 22 19–26 18–27 18–27 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 13–17 12–18 11–18 11–19
Fremskrittspartiet 27 15 14–17 13–18 12–18 10–19
Rødt 1 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 6–9 6–9 3–9 2–10
Venstre 8 7 6–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 6 3–8 3–8 3–8 2–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 9% 99.5%  
41 16% 91%  
42 11% 75%  
43 20% 64% Median
44 22% 44%  
45 8% 22%  
46 7% 14%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.6%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 47% 96% Median
37 20% 48%  
38 7% 28%  
39 8% 21%  
40 4% 13%  
41 2% 9%  
42 3% 7%  
43 0.9% 5%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 5% 100%  
19 8% 95% Last Result
20 22% 86%  
21 14% 64%  
22 9% 50% Median
23 8% 41%  
24 16% 32%  
25 4% 16%  
26 6% 12%  
27 4% 6%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7% Last Result
12 3% 97%  
13 4% 94%  
14 13% 90%  
15 21% 77%  
16 40% 56% Median
17 8% 16%  
18 6% 8%  
19 1.2% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 2% 99.3%  
12 2% 98%  
13 3% 96%  
14 12% 92%  
15 42% 81% Median
16 22% 38%  
17 12% 17%  
18 4% 5%  
19 1.0% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.4% 100%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0.2% 98.6%  
6 11% 98%  
7 38% 88% Median
8 28% 50%  
9 15% 22%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0.1% 97%  
6 12% 97%  
7 36% 85% Median
8 33% 49%  
9 14% 16%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 0.8% 95%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 17% 94%  
7 38% 77% Median
8 31% 39% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 1.5% 99.9%  
3 21% 98%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0.2% 78%  
6 42% 77% Median
7 22% 36%  
8 12% 13% Last Result
9 1.3% 1.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 96 100% 92–99 90–101 89–101 87–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.9% 90–97 88–98 88–100 86–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 91% 85–92 83–93 83–94 80–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 90% 84–92 82–93 82–94 80–96
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 88 83% 84–91 83–92 82–93 80–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 9% 77–84 75–86 75–86 74–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 79 3% 74–83 73–84 72–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 73 0% 70–77 69–78 68–79 66–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 73 0% 69–76 68–79 67–79 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 67–75 66–77 64–78 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 59–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 65 0% 62–69 60–71 59–72 57–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 57–63 55–65 54–66 52–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 56–62 55–62 55–63 53–65
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 52 0% 50–56 49–58 48–59 47–61
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 50 0% 47–54 46–55 45–57 42–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 35 0% 31–39 30–40 29–40 26–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 1.5% 98.9%  
90 3% 97%  
91 3% 94%  
92 3% 91%  
93 5% 89%  
94 16% 84%  
95 12% 68% Median
96 20% 56%  
97 13% 36%  
98 10% 23%  
99 5% 14%  
100 3% 9%  
101 4% 6%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 1.0% 1.4%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.9% Majority
86 0.8% 99.5%  
87 0.7% 98.7%  
88 4% 98% Last Result
89 3% 94%  
90 3% 90%  
91 8% 87%  
92 8% 79%  
93 10% 71%  
94 15% 62% Median
95 20% 47%  
96 9% 27%  
97 8% 18%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 5%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.9% 1.3%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.3% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
81 0.5% 99.4%  
82 1.3% 98.9%  
83 4% 98%  
84 3% 94%  
85 3% 91% Majority
86 10% 88%  
87 15% 77%  
88 17% 63% Median
89 15% 46%  
90 13% 31%  
91 7% 18%  
92 4% 11%  
93 3% 7%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
81 0.5% 99.3%  
82 4% 98.7%  
83 3% 95%  
84 3% 92%  
85 6% 90% Majority
86 8% 84%  
87 14% 76%  
88 15% 61% Median
89 20% 46%  
90 9% 26%  
91 6% 17%  
92 5% 12%  
93 4% 7%  
94 1.4% 3%  
95 0.6% 1.4%  
96 0.6% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.8% 99.6%  
81 0.5% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 10% 93%  
85 12% 83% Majority
86 9% 71% Median
87 10% 62%  
88 15% 51%  
89 10% 36%  
90 10% 26%  
91 7% 16%  
92 5% 9%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.0%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 5% 99.1%  
76 3% 94%  
77 3% 91%  
78 5% 89%  
79 15% 83% Last Result
80 17% 69%  
81 13% 52% Median
82 18% 39%  
83 6% 20%  
84 5% 14%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.0%  
72 1.4% 98.6%  
73 6% 97%  
74 3% 92%  
75 8% 89%  
76 6% 81%  
77 13% 74% Last Result
78 8% 62% Median
79 16% 54%  
80 14% 38%  
81 6% 25%  
82 7% 18%  
83 4% 11%  
84 4% 7%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.1% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 97%  
70 3% 92%  
71 7% 89%  
72 16% 81%  
73 17% 65% Median
74 10% 49%  
75 12% 38%  
76 12% 27%  
77 7% 15%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.2%  
81 0.6% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.7%  
66 0.9% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 4% 92%  
70 5% 88%  
71 13% 83% Median
72 16% 70%  
73 13% 54%  
74 17% 41%  
75 11% 24%  
76 4% 13%  
77 3% 9%  
78 2% 7%  
79 4% 5%  
80 0.7% 1.5%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.8%  
65 1.1% 97%  
66 5% 96%  
67 7% 91%  
68 4% 84%  
69 8% 80%  
70 11% 72%  
71 12% 61% Median
72 20% 48%  
73 9% 28%  
74 5% 19%  
75 5% 14%  
76 3% 9% Last Result
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.5% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 3% 100%  
60 5% 97%  
61 3% 92%  
62 3% 89%  
63 9% 85%  
64 16% 76%  
65 20% 60% Median
66 10% 40%  
67 11% 30%  
68 4% 19% Last Result
69 5% 16%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.6% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.7%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 4% 90%  
63 8% 86%  
64 11% 78% Median
65 21% 67%  
66 15% 46%  
67 13% 31%  
68 5% 18%  
69 4% 12%  
70 1.5% 8%  
71 2% 6%  
72 3% 5%  
73 0.5% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 1.4% 99.2%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 93%  
57 7% 90%  
58 16% 83% Median
59 16% 66%  
60 20% 50%  
61 11% 30%  
62 7% 19%  
63 3% 12%  
64 2% 9%  
65 3% 7%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.6% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.9% 99.7%  
54 0.7% 98.8%  
55 5% 98%  
56 7% 93%  
57 15% 86%  
58 22% 71%  
59 19% 48% Median
60 10% 30% Last Result
61 8% 20%  
62 8% 11%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 3% 97%  
50 4% 93%  
51 25% 90% Median
52 27% 65%  
53 9% 38%  
54 11% 28%  
55 5% 17%  
56 3% 12%  
57 3% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.5% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.4% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.5%  
43 0.2% 98.7%  
44 0.5% 98.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 96%  
47 7% 91%  
48 9% 85%  
49 16% 76% Median
50 19% 60%  
51 17% 41%  
52 10% 25%  
53 4% 15%  
54 4% 11%  
55 2% 7%  
56 0.9% 5%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.2% 99.7%  
27 0.3% 99.5%  
28 1.4% 99.1%  
29 1.3% 98%  
30 3% 96%  
31 4% 94%  
32 11% 89%  
33 13% 78%  
34 14% 65%  
35 8% 51% Last Result, Median
36 11% 43%  
37 7% 32%  
38 15% 25%  
39 5% 11%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.8% 1.5%  
42 0.2% 0.6%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations