Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 25 August–3 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.9–24.8% 21.5–25.3% 21.2–25.7% 20.5–26.4%
Høyre 25.0% 20.5% 19.1–21.9% 18.7–22.3% 18.4–22.7% 17.8–23.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.0% 12.8–15.2% 12.5–15.6% 12.2–15.9% 11.7–16.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.4% 8.4–10.4% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.5–11.6%
Rødt 2.4% 5.4% 4.7–6.3% 4.5–6.5% 4.3–6.7% 4.0–7.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.6% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–45 40–45 40–46 39–48
Høyre 45 36 34–37 34–38 32–39 32–41
Senterpartiet 19 26 23–29 22–30 21–31 20–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 13–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 14–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
Rødt 1 9 7–10 7–11 6–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 6–9 6–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–7 1–7 1–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 5% 99.1%  
41 21% 94%  
42 20% 73%  
43 24% 53% Median
44 16% 29%  
45 9% 13%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.7% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 2% 97%  
34 7% 95%  
35 22% 88%  
36 46% 66% Median
37 10% 20%  
38 4% 9%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 1.1% 99.8%  
21 2% 98.7%  
22 6% 96%  
23 8% 91%  
24 6% 83%  
25 20% 76%  
26 18% 56% Median
27 14% 38%  
28 9% 24%  
29 9% 15%  
30 3% 6%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 0.4% 99.7%  
14 3% 99.3%  
15 17% 96%  
16 19% 80%  
17 27% 60% Median
18 22% 34%  
19 7% 11%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.7% Last Result
12 4% 98%  
13 5% 95%  
14 16% 90%  
15 36% 74% Median
16 21% 38%  
17 10% 16%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 2% 99.5%  
7 15% 97%  
8 32% 82%  
9 31% 50% Median
10 13% 19%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 1.3% 96%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 6% 95%  
7 52% 89% Median
8 25% 37% Last Result
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 26% 99.3%  
3 0.7% 73%  
4 0.5% 72%  
5 0.7% 72%  
6 15% 71%  
7 39% 56% Median
8 14% 17%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100%  
2 20% 90%  
3 41% 70% Median
4 0% 29%  
5 0.1% 29%  
6 18% 29%  
7 10% 11%  
8 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 98 100% 94–102 94–103 92–104 91–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 99.5% 90–97 88–98 87–98 85–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 99.7% 89–96 88–97 87–98 85–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 97% 86–93 85–94 84–95 82–97
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 89 96% 86–93 85–94 83–95 82–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 41% 81–87 79–88 79–89 77–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 78 3% 73–83 72–83 71–85 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 72 0% 68–75 68–77 67–78 65–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 68–76 67–78 66–78 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 65–72 64–73 63–75 62–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 70 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 64 0% 60–68 59–68 59–69 56–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 57–63 56–64 55–65 53–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 56–61 55–61 54–62 53–64
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 53 0% 50–55 50–56 49–57 47–60
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 46 0% 44–50 42–51 41–52 40–53
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 36 0% 33–40 32–42 30–43 28–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.7% 99.5%  
92 2% 98.8%  
93 2% 97%  
94 7% 95%  
95 8% 88%  
96 9% 80%  
97 17% 71%  
98 14% 54%  
99 10% 40%  
100 11% 30% Median
101 7% 19%  
102 7% 12%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.1% 3%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 0.5% 99.2%  
87 2% 98.7%  
88 2% 97% Last Result
89 4% 94%  
90 10% 91%  
91 15% 80%  
92 8% 65%  
93 16% 58%  
94 10% 42% Median
95 9% 31%  
96 10% 22%  
97 6% 13%  
98 4% 7%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 1.2% 99.4%  
87 2% 98%  
88 4% 96%  
89 8% 92%  
90 14% 84%  
91 10% 69%  
92 13% 59%  
93 14% 47% Median
94 9% 33%  
95 10% 24%  
96 6% 14%  
97 4% 8%  
98 2% 4%  
99 2% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.4% 99.6%  
83 0.8% 99.2%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 6% 97% Majority
86 7% 91%  
87 8% 84%  
88 21% 76%  
89 7% 55%  
90 9% 48%  
91 11% 39% Median
92 11% 27%  
93 8% 16%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 2% 99.2%  
84 1.0% 97%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 5% 93%  
87 7% 88%  
88 14% 81%  
89 22% 66% Median
90 15% 44%  
91 8% 29%  
92 8% 21%  
93 4% 13%  
94 6% 9%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 2% 99.2%  
79 3% 98% Last Result
80 4% 95%  
81 17% 90%  
82 5% 73%  
83 10% 68%  
84 18% 59% Median
85 12% 41% Majority
86 15% 29%  
87 6% 13%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.5% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.9% 99.4%  
71 2% 98.6%  
72 3% 97%  
73 5% 94%  
74 5% 90%  
75 5% 84%  
76 18% 79%  
77 11% 62% Last Result
78 13% 51%  
79 7% 37% Median
80 8% 31%  
81 7% 23%  
82 6% 16%  
83 5% 10%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 1.1% 99.8%  
66 1.2% 98.7%  
67 2% 98%  
68 6% 96%  
69 5% 89%  
70 8% 84%  
71 14% 76%  
72 22% 63%  
73 21% 41%  
74 5% 21% Median
75 6% 16%  
76 3% 10%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.3%  
66 1.5% 98.7%  
67 3% 97%  
68 5% 94%  
69 16% 90%  
70 9% 74%  
71 10% 65%  
72 12% 55% Median
73 7% 43%  
74 8% 36%  
75 12% 29%  
76 7% 17% Last Result
77 5% 10%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.6%  
63 1.5% 98.8%  
64 3% 97%  
65 6% 94%  
66 15% 88%  
67 10% 73%  
68 12% 63% Last Result
69 15% 51% Median
70 11% 36%  
71 7% 25%  
72 10% 17%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 1.1% 1.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 1.0% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 8% 94%  
66 4% 86%  
67 13% 82%  
68 7% 68%  
69 11% 61%  
70 14% 50% Median
71 17% 37%  
72 9% 20%  
73 5% 11%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 3% 98%  
60 9% 94%  
61 10% 85%  
62 9% 75%  
63 15% 66% Median
64 21% 51%  
65 10% 30%  
66 6% 20%  
67 3% 14%  
68 6% 11%  
69 3% 5%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 0.8% 99.1%  
55 1.2% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 12% 95%  
58 11% 83%  
59 13% 72%  
60 15% 59% Median
61 23% 44%  
62 10% 21%  
63 6% 11%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.3% 3%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.8% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.7%  
55 5% 97%  
56 21% 92%  
57 15% 71%  
58 22% 55% Median
59 9% 33%  
60 12% 24% Last Result
61 8% 12%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.2% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 2% 98%  
50 15% 96%  
51 10% 81%  
52 16% 71%  
53 17% 54% Median
54 21% 38%  
55 9% 17%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 5%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.6%  
42 2% 97%  
43 2% 95%  
44 11% 92%  
45 14% 81%  
46 24% 67% Median
47 9% 44%  
48 10% 35%  
49 12% 25%  
50 3% 13%  
51 6% 10%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.9% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.2%  
30 1.5% 98.7%  
31 2% 97%  
32 3% 96%  
33 6% 93%  
34 5% 87%  
35 20% 82% Last Result
36 12% 61% Median
37 11% 49%  
38 7% 38%  
39 12% 31%  
40 9% 19%  
41 4% 10%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations