Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten, 30 August–6 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.9% 22.2–25.8% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.6–27.6%
Høyre 25.0% 18.5% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.4–21.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.3% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.6–17.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.3% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.4% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
Rødt 2.4% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–47 40–47 40–49 39–52
Høyre 45 33 29–36 28–36 27–37 26–39
Senterpartiet 19 27 23–29 22–30 21–31 20–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 18–25 17–25 17–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–17 10–18 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 7–11 6–11 2–13
Rødt 1 8 7–10 6–11 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–7 2–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–6 1–7 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.3% 99.5%  
40 5% 98%  
41 9% 93%  
42 13% 84%  
43 19% 71%  
44 21% 52% Median
45 12% 31%  
46 8% 19%  
47 7% 11%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.0% 3% Last Result
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.9%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 4% 97%  
29 8% 93%  
30 10% 85%  
31 7% 75%  
32 11% 68%  
33 10% 57% Median
34 15% 47%  
35 20% 31%  
36 9% 12%  
37 1.5% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.1%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
20 1.0% 99.6%  
21 3% 98.5%  
22 3% 95%  
23 5% 92%  
24 10% 87%  
25 9% 77%  
26 15% 68%  
27 13% 53% Median
28 15% 40%  
29 16% 24%  
30 5% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 4% 98%  
18 8% 94%  
19 6% 86%  
20 8% 80%  
21 4% 72%  
22 4% 69%  
23 16% 64% Median
24 30% 48%  
25 13% 18%  
26 3% 5%  
27 1.2% 2% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 9% 97% Last Result
12 16% 87%  
13 19% 71%  
14 22% 52% Median
15 13% 30%  
16 8% 17%  
17 6% 9%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 98.9%  
4 0.1% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 2% 98.6%  
7 24% 97%  
8 26% 73% Median
9 24% 47%  
10 15% 23%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 4% 100%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 2% 96%  
7 18% 94%  
8 33% 76% Median
9 22% 43%  
10 14% 21%  
11 5% 7%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 68% 99.2% Median
3 4% 31%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0.1% 27%  
6 14% 27%  
7 10% 13%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 21% 99.5%  
2 16% 78%  
3 43% 62% Median
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 10% 19%  
7 7% 9%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 101 100% 95–106 94–107 94–108 91–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 99.9% 91–100 90–102 89–104 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 98.8% 87–97 86–99 86–100 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 98% 87–97 86–98 85–99 83–102
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 88 87% 83–93 82–94 81–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 44% 80–88 78–89 77–90 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 20% 77–86 76–88 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 74 0.5% 69–79 68–81 67–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.1% 69–78 67–79 66–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 69 0% 65–75 63–77 63–78 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 66–74 64–75 64–76 62–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 62 0% 57–66 55–68 54–69 52–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 54–63 52–65 51–66 49–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 54–61 53–63 52–63 51–66
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 55 0% 50–59 48–60 48–61 47–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 39 0% 35–44 33–46 32–47 31–49
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 33 0% 28–38 27–39 26–40 24–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 1.0% 99.3%  
93 0.6% 98%  
94 6% 98%  
95 3% 92%  
96 3% 88%  
97 6% 85%  
98 6% 79%  
99 16% 73%  
100 7% 58%  
101 10% 51% Median
102 9% 41%  
103 10% 32%  
104 6% 22%  
105 5% 15%  
106 4% 11%  
107 4% 7%  
108 1.3% 4%  
109 1.1% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.2%  
111 0.3% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.7% 99.7%  
88 1.4% 99.0% Last Result
89 3% 98%  
90 5% 95%  
91 9% 90%  
92 5% 81%  
93 7% 76%  
94 9% 70%  
95 14% 61%  
96 10% 47% Median
97 10% 37%  
98 6% 27%  
99 7% 21%  
100 3% 13%  
101 3% 10%  
102 3% 7%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.4% 1.2%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.7% 99.6%  
85 1.3% 98.8% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 5% 95%  
88 4% 90%  
89 10% 86%  
90 8% 75%  
91 9% 67%  
92 11% 57%  
93 8% 46% Median
94 7% 38%  
95 11% 31%  
96 8% 20%  
97 5% 12%  
98 2% 8%  
99 3% 6%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.5% 1.4%  
102 0.2% 0.9%  
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.7%  
84 1.0% 99.0%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 5% 94%  
88 5% 89%  
89 6% 84%  
90 10% 77%  
91 8% 68%  
92 16% 60%  
93 10% 44% Median
94 7% 34%  
95 11% 28%  
96 3% 16%  
97 6% 13%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.5% 3%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.1%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 99.5%  
80 1.1% 98.8%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 5% 94%  
84 2% 89%  
85 12% 87% Majority
86 13% 74%  
87 9% 62%  
88 12% 53% Median
89 9% 41%  
90 7% 32%  
91 8% 26%  
92 6% 18%  
93 4% 11%  
94 4% 7%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.9% 1.5%  
97 0.4% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.6%  
77 3% 98.9%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94% Last Result
80 7% 91%  
81 7% 84%  
82 14% 77%  
83 13% 63%  
84 6% 50%  
85 11% 44% Median, Majority
86 10% 34%  
87 10% 24%  
88 5% 14%  
89 5% 8%  
90 1.4% 4%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.4%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 4% 96%  
77 2% 92% Last Result
78 11% 90%  
79 6% 79%  
80 6% 73%  
81 13% 66%  
82 17% 54% Median
83 8% 36%  
84 8% 28%  
85 5% 20% Majority
86 6% 16%  
87 2% 10%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 3% 97%  
69 4% 94%  
70 5% 89%  
71 9% 85%  
72 7% 75%  
73 12% 69%  
74 10% 56% Median
75 18% 46%  
76 4% 28%  
77 9% 24%  
78 3% 15%  
79 3% 11%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 1.1% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.5%  
67 3% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 5% 91%  
70 5% 86%  
71 11% 81%  
72 10% 70%  
73 12% 60%  
74 15% 48% Median
75 8% 33%  
76 8% 25% Last Result
77 5% 17%  
78 4% 12%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 4% 98.5%  
64 4% 95%  
65 4% 91%  
66 4% 87%  
67 9% 84%  
68 12% 74%  
69 14% 62% Median
70 6% 48%  
71 8% 42%  
72 10% 35%  
73 7% 24%  
74 5% 17%  
75 5% 12%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 1.5% 99.2%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 94%  
66 4% 92%  
67 6% 87%  
68 9% 82% Last Result
69 14% 72%  
70 14% 58%  
71 7% 44% Median
72 8% 37%  
73 14% 29%  
74 9% 15%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 0.7% 99.1%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 94%  
57 6% 91%  
58 4% 85%  
59 16% 81%  
60 7% 65%  
61 8% 58% Median
62 12% 50%  
63 11% 38%  
64 4% 26%  
65 6% 22%  
66 6% 16%  
67 2% 10%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 1.1% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 2% 95%  
54 9% 92%  
55 4% 83%  
56 11% 79%  
57 7% 68%  
58 10% 61% Median
59 10% 51%  
60 19% 41%  
61 5% 22%  
62 5% 17%  
63 4% 12%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.8%  
52 3% 99.2%  
53 2% 96%  
54 11% 94%  
55 7% 83%  
56 13% 76%  
57 15% 63%  
58 18% 48% Median
59 10% 30%  
60 7% 19% Last Result
61 5% 12%  
62 2% 7%  
63 3% 5%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.2%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 3% 95%  
50 3% 92%  
51 3% 89%  
52 9% 86%  
53 10% 77%  
54 12% 67%  
55 6% 55%  
56 11% 49% Median
57 5% 37%  
58 19% 32%  
59 5% 13%  
60 5% 9%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.3%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.3%  
33 2% 97%  
34 5% 95%  
35 9% 90%  
36 8% 81%  
37 9% 73%  
38 5% 64% Median
39 18% 59%  
40 8% 41%  
41 10% 32%  
42 3% 22%  
43 5% 19%  
44 4% 14%  
45 3% 9%  
46 2% 6%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.5% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.6%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 0.6% 99.5%  
26 3% 98.9%  
27 3% 96%  
28 7% 93%  
29 5% 86%  
30 5% 82%  
31 11% 77%  
32 14% 65% Median
33 14% 51%  
34 7% 37%  
35 7% 31% Last Result
36 6% 24%  
37 7% 18%  
38 3% 11%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.3%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations