Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 1–7 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.8% 22.7–25.0% 22.3–25.3% 22.1–25.7% 21.5–26.2%
Høyre 25.0% 18.6% 17.6–19.7% 17.3–20.0% 17.0–20.3% 16.5–20.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.8% 12.9–14.8% 12.6–15.1% 12.4–15.3% 12.0–15.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.1% 10.3–12.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.9% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0% 7.8–10.2% 7.4–10.6%
Rødt 2.4% 6.2% 5.6–6.9% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.6% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.6% 4.0–5.8% 3.7–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–46 41–46 41–47 40–49
Høyre 45 33 30–36 30–36 29–36 28–36
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–28 21–29 21–30 20–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 17–21 17–22 16–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
Rødt 1 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 2–11
Venstre 8 8 7–9 6–9 2–10 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–8 3–9 2–9 2–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 13% 99.1%  
42 19% 86%  
43 17% 67% Median
44 25% 50%  
45 14% 25%  
46 7% 12%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 2% 98%  
30 7% 96%  
31 11% 89%  
32 12% 79%  
33 26% 67% Median
34 17% 41%  
35 13% 23%  
36 10% 11%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.6% 100%  
21 5% 99.4%  
22 5% 95%  
23 15% 90%  
24 15% 75%  
25 30% 60% Median
26 10% 31%  
27 9% 21%  
28 6% 11%  
29 2% 5%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 3% 99.3%  
17 18% 96%  
18 19% 79%  
19 22% 60% Median
20 20% 38%  
21 9% 18%  
22 5% 9%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.6% Last Result
12 8% 98%  
13 13% 90%  
14 11% 78%  
15 26% 67% Median
16 27% 41%  
17 9% 13%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 5% 99.6%  
9 17% 94%  
10 32% 77% Median
11 34% 45%  
12 9% 11%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.4% 100%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0.9% 98.6%  
7 24% 98%  
8 34% 74% Median
9 30% 40%  
10 10% 11%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 0.1% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 2% 97%  
7 24% 95%  
8 43% 71% Last Result, Median
9 23% 28%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 3% 99.9%  
3 23% 97%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 8% 74%  
7 31% 65% Median
8 28% 34% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 102 100% 98–106 96–107 96–108 94–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 94–102 93–103 92–103 90–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 100% 90–97 89–98 88–99 87–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 99.6% 88–95 87–96 86–97 85–98
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 91 98% 87–95 86–96 85–97 83–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 30% 80–86 79–88 79–89 78–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 26% 79–87 78–89 77–89 75–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 77 0.2% 73–81 72–82 71–82 70–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0% 71–79 70–80 68–81 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 75 0% 71–78 69–79 68–79 66–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 65–72 65–73 64–74 62–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 66 0% 63–70 61–71 60–72 57–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 57–63 56–64 55–64 53–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 56–61 55–62 55–63 54–63
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 52 0% 49–55 48–56 47–57 46–58
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 48 0% 43–50 42–51 41–52 38–53
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 35–43 34–44 33–45 30–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.7% 99.6%  
95 1.0% 99.0%  
96 3% 98%  
97 4% 95%  
98 6% 91%  
99 5% 85%  
100 18% 79%  
101 8% 62% Median
102 13% 54%  
103 10% 41%  
104 9% 31%  
105 11% 22%  
106 6% 11%  
107 3% 6%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.5% 1.0%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100% Last Result
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.7% 99.4%  
92 1.3% 98.7%  
93 3% 97%  
94 8% 95%  
95 8% 87%  
96 11% 78%  
97 19% 68%  
98 11% 49% Median
99 12% 38%  
100 9% 27%  
101 7% 17%  
102 5% 10%  
103 4% 6%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.7% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.6% 99.6%  
88 2% 99.0%  
89 5% 97%  
90 6% 92%  
91 4% 86%  
92 12% 82%  
93 23% 70% Median
94 13% 47%  
95 10% 34%  
96 11% 24%  
97 5% 13%  
98 4% 8%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.2% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 1.4% 99.6% Majority
86 1.3% 98%  
87 4% 97%  
88 8% 93%  
89 13% 84%  
90 8% 72%  
91 15% 64% Median
92 11% 49%  
93 10% 38%  
94 14% 28%  
95 6% 13%  
96 3% 7%  
97 3% 4%  
98 0.5% 1.0%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 0.9% 99.3%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 5% 92%  
88 6% 87%  
89 15% 81%  
90 11% 66%  
91 8% 55%  
92 9% 47% Median
93 6% 37%  
94 18% 31%  
95 7% 13%  
96 3% 6%  
97 3% 3%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 1.3% 99.6%  
79 4% 98% Last Result
80 7% 94%  
81 6% 87%  
82 21% 81%  
83 18% 60% Median
84 12% 42%  
85 13% 30% Majority
86 7% 17%  
87 4% 10%  
88 3% 6%  
89 3% 3%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.8% 99.2%  
77 2% 98% Last Result
78 2% 96%  
79 6% 94%  
80 7% 88%  
81 12% 81%  
82 20% 69%  
83 15% 48% Median
84 7% 33%  
85 7% 26% Majority
86 7% 19%  
87 2% 12%  
88 5% 10%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 1.2% 99.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 6% 97%  
73 4% 91%  
74 9% 87%  
75 18% 79%  
76 7% 60% Median
77 12% 53%  
78 6% 41%  
79 11% 35%  
80 14% 24%  
81 5% 11%  
82 4% 5%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 3% 99.1%  
69 0.8% 96%  
70 4% 96%  
71 6% 91%  
72 11% 85%  
73 8% 75%  
74 17% 67%  
75 16% 50% Median
76 8% 34% Last Result
77 7% 26%  
78 5% 18%  
79 6% 13%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.1%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 7% 91%  
72 6% 84%  
73 12% 78%  
74 13% 66%  
75 13% 53% Median
76 21% 40%  
77 9% 19%  
78 3% 10%  
79 5% 7%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.9% 99.5%  
64 3% 98.6%  
65 7% 95%  
66 8% 88%  
67 21% 79%  
68 12% 58% Last Result, Median
69 18% 46%  
70 8% 28%  
71 8% 20%  
72 5% 11%  
73 2% 6%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.0% 1.4%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.3%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 2% 98.5%  
61 2% 97%  
62 4% 94%  
63 8% 90%  
64 12% 82%  
65 11% 70%  
66 11% 59%  
67 14% 48% Median
68 7% 34%  
69 14% 26%  
70 4% 12%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 1.2% 1.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.8%  
54 1.1% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 10% 91%  
58 7% 81%  
59 15% 74%  
60 12% 59% Median
61 23% 47%  
62 7% 24%  
63 11% 17%  
64 5% 7%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.7% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.7%  
55 4% 98%  
56 11% 93%  
57 23% 83%  
58 12% 60% Median
59 14% 47%  
60 22% 34% Last Result
61 5% 12%  
62 4% 7%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 5% 97%  
49 10% 92%  
50 8% 83%  
51 10% 75%  
52 22% 65% Median
53 16% 43%  
54 13% 28%  
55 8% 15%  
56 3% 7%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.8% 0.9%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.4%  
40 0.3% 99.1%  
41 1.4% 98.7%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 95%  
44 6% 88%  
45 10% 82%  
46 10% 72%  
47 9% 62%  
48 13% 53% Median
49 20% 40%  
50 12% 20%  
51 5% 8%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.4%  
32 0.4% 99.3%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 5% 97%  
35 5% 92% Last Result
36 5% 87%  
37 15% 82%  
38 12% 67%  
39 7% 55%  
40 11% 47% Median
41 15% 36%  
42 9% 21%  
43 6% 12%  
44 2% 6%  
45 2% 4%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations