Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 3–8 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.6% 22.5–24.7% 22.2–25.0% 22.0–25.3% 21.5–25.8%
Høyre 25.0% 19.0% 18.0–20.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.5–20.6% 17.1–21.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.4% 12.5–14.3% 12.3–14.5% 12.1–14.7% 11.7–15.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.2% 10.4–12.0% 10.2–12.2% 10.0–12.4% 9.6–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.4% 7.9–10.8%
Rødt 2.4% 6.4% 5.8–7.1% 5.6–7.2% 5.5–7.4% 5.2–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 4.6% 4.1–5.2% 3.9–5.3% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 4.0–5.1% 3.9–5.2% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 41–45 41–46 41–46 40–46
Høyre 45 34 32–36 32–36 31–36 29–37
Senterpartiet 19 24 22–25 21–26 21–27 20–28
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Rødt 1 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–9 7–9 2–9 2–10
Venstre 8 8 7–9 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 6–8 3–9 3–9 3–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 39% 99.4%  
42 15% 60% Median
43 17% 45%  
44 17% 28%  
45 6% 11%  
46 5% 5%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 1.2% 99.5%  
31 3% 98%  
32 6% 95%  
33 24% 89%  
34 40% 65% Median
35 15% 26%  
36 9% 11%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 2% 100%  
21 7% 98%  
22 9% 92%  
23 25% 82%  
24 29% 57% Median
25 20% 29%  
26 5% 9%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.6% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 5% 98%  
18 24% 93%  
19 29% 69% Median
20 20% 39%  
21 13% 19%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.5% 1.0%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100% Last Result
12 1.5% 99.8%  
13 8% 98%  
14 11% 90%  
15 20% 80%  
16 37% 60% Median
17 19% 23%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 7% 99.0%  
10 31% 92%  
11 34% 61% Median
12 25% 28%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 3% 100%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 2% 97%  
7 17% 96%  
8 43% 79% Median
9 34% 35%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 0.3% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 3% 94%  
7 32% 91%  
8 43% 59% Last Result, Median
9 15% 16%  
10 1.3% 1.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 8% 99.7%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 2% 91%  
7 38% 90%  
8 44% 52% Last Result, Median
9 7% 8%  
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 98–104 97–105 96–105 93–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 94–100 93–101 92–102 90–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 100% 91–96 89–97 89–97 87–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 92 99.7% 89–94 88–94 87–95 85–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 99.1% 87–93 86–93 86–94 84–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 11% 78–85 77–86 76–87 75–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 9% 80–84 79–85 79–86 77–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 77 0% 74–80 73–80 72–81 70–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 77 0% 73–78 71–78 70–79 69–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0% 71–77 70–78 69–79 68–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 68 0% 65–70 64–71 63–72 61–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 64–70 64–70 63–71 62–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 58–63 57–64 56–65 54–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 56–60 56–61 56–61 54–63
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 53 0% 51–55 50–56 49–57 47–58
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 49 0% 45–51 45–51 44–52 42–53
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 32–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.4% 99.8%  
94 0.5% 99.4%  
95 1.2% 99.0%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 7% 93%  
99 18% 87%  
100 11% 69%  
101 31% 58% Median
102 9% 27%  
103 6% 18%  
104 6% 11%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.3% 2%  
107 0.8% 1.1%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.2% 100% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.5% 99.7%  
91 1.2% 99.2%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 5% 94%  
95 12% 89%  
96 19% 78%  
97 19% 59%  
98 16% 40% Median
99 10% 24%  
100 8% 14%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.8% 1.2%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.4% 100%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 1.2% 99.1%  
89 3% 98%  
90 4% 95%  
91 19% 91%  
92 30% 72%  
93 14% 42% Median
94 8% 27%  
95 8% 19%  
96 6% 11%  
97 3% 5%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.4% 99.7% Majority
86 0.8% 99.3%  
87 2% 98.6%  
88 2% 96%  
89 10% 95%  
90 11% 85%  
91 20% 74%  
92 23% 54%  
93 19% 32% Median
94 8% 12%  
95 2% 4%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.6% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 1.5% 99.1% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 6% 95%  
88 12% 89%  
89 25% 77%  
90 21% 52% Median
91 12% 32%  
92 10% 20%  
93 6% 10%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.8%  
97 0.3% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 2% 99.1%  
77 3% 97% Last Result
78 5% 94%  
79 6% 89%  
80 15% 83%  
81 17% 68%  
82 23% 50% Median
83 9% 27%  
84 7% 18%  
85 5% 11% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.6% 99.8%  
78 2% 99.2%  
79 7% 98% Last Result
80 13% 90%  
81 29% 77%  
82 17% 48% Median
83 10% 31%  
84 11% 20%  
85 5% 9% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.4%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 10% 90%  
76 20% 80%  
77 22% 60% Median
78 19% 38%  
79 9% 20%  
80 8% 10%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 99.6%  
70 2% 98.8%  
71 2% 96%  
72 3% 94%  
73 8% 91%  
74 9% 83%  
75 9% 73%  
76 14% 65%  
77 28% 51% Median
78 19% 23%  
79 2% 4%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.5%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 95%  
71 9% 92%  
72 20% 83%  
73 16% 63%  
74 18% 47% Median
75 11% 29%  
76 5% 18% Last Result
77 6% 13%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.4% 99.3%  
63 3% 98%  
64 3% 95%  
65 9% 92%  
66 8% 84%  
67 10% 76%  
68 32% 66%  
69 11% 35% Median
70 17% 24%  
71 4% 7%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.9% 99.8%  
63 3% 98.9%  
64 19% 96%  
65 24% 78%  
66 14% 53% Median
67 14% 39%  
68 11% 26% Last Result
69 4% 15%  
70 6% 10%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.6% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 98.9%  
56 3% 98%  
57 4% 95%  
58 7% 91%  
59 9% 85%  
60 27% 76%  
61 16% 49% Median
62 13% 33%  
63 12% 20%  
64 4% 7%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.9% 100%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 8% 98%  
57 35% 90%  
58 19% 55% Median
59 17% 36%  
60 11% 19% Last Result
61 5% 7%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.5%  
49 1.2% 98.7%  
50 4% 97%  
51 5% 93%  
52 27% 88%  
53 24% 61% Median
54 12% 37%  
55 16% 25%  
56 4% 8%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.7% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.6%  
43 1.3% 99.0%  
44 2% 98%  
45 5% 95%  
46 6% 90%  
47 7% 84%  
48 14% 77%  
49 34% 63%  
50 12% 28% Median
51 12% 16%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.8% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.7%  
32 0.6% 99.5%  
33 0.9% 98.9%  
34 5% 98%  
35 4% 93% Last Result
36 7% 89%  
37 6% 81%  
38 24% 76%  
39 22% 51%  
40 11% 29% Median
41 13% 18%  
42 3% 5%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations