Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 7–9 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.8% 22.6–25.1% 22.3–25.5% 22.0–25.8% 21.4–26.4%
Høyre 25.0% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.6% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.7% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–14.0% 11.2–14.2% 10.8–14.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.9% 10.0–11.8% 9.8–12.1% 9.5–12.3% 9.1–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.2% 8.4–10.1% 8.1–10.3% 8.0–10.5% 7.6–11.0%
Rødt 2.4% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.3–8.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.3%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 42–45 41–46 41–46 40–48
Høyre 45 34 32–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Rødt 1 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 3–11
Venstre 8 8 7–9 7–10 2–10 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–9 2–9 2–10 2–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.5% 100%  
41 9% 99.5%  
42 23% 91%  
43 17% 68%  
44 23% 50% Median
45 18% 27%  
46 8% 10%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.5% 99.8%  
30 1.5% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 15% 94%  
33 11% 79%  
34 44% 68% Median
35 16% 25%  
36 8% 9%  
37 0.6% 1.1%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
20 14% 99.4%  
21 28% 85%  
22 16% 57% Median
23 9% 40%  
24 18% 31%  
25 11% 14%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.3%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 4% 99.0%  
17 20% 95%  
18 38% 75% Median
19 12% 36%  
20 12% 25%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.5% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100% Last Result
12 2% 99.7%  
13 6% 98%  
14 14% 91%  
15 28% 78% Median
16 35% 50%  
17 10% 15%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 13% 97%  
11 40% 85% Median
12 36% 44%  
13 7% 8%  
14 1.3% 1.5%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0.7% 98%  
7 11% 97%  
8 56% 86% Last Result, Median
9 23% 30%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 0.1% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 1.3% 97%  
7 20% 96%  
8 44% 76% Last Result, Median
9 26% 31%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 6% 100%  
3 0.1% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.6% 94%  
7 33% 94%  
8 29% 61% Median
9 28% 32%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 100 100% 97–103 96–104 95–105 93–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 97 100% 94–100 93–101 92–102 90–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 100% 89–96 89–97 89–97 87–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 91 99.3% 88–93 86–95 86–96 84–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 97% 86–92 85–92 84–94 82–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 82 14% 78–85 77–86 76–87 74–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 6% 78–84 78–85 78–86 76–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 78 0.2% 75–80 74–81 73–82 71–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 76 0% 73–79 72–80 71–80 69–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0% 70–77 70–78 69–79 67–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 69 0% 65–71 65–72 64–73 62–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–69 62–70 62–71 61–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 57–63 57–64 55–64 53–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 57–61 56–62 56–62 55–64
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 52 0% 50–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 50 0% 47–52 46–53 45–53 43–55
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 32–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.4% 99.7%  
94 0.9% 99.3%  
95 1.3% 98%  
96 3% 97%  
97 7% 94%  
98 7% 87%  
99 10% 79%  
100 28% 69% Median
101 17% 41%  
102 7% 24%  
103 8% 18%  
104 6% 9%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.9% 1.4%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.7%  
91 1.1% 99.3%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 3% 97%  
94 8% 94%  
95 10% 86%  
96 19% 75%  
97 14% 57% Median
98 19% 43%  
99 11% 24%  
100 5% 13%  
101 5% 8%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.8% 1.3%  
104 0.4% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.5%  
88 1.3% 99.2%  
89 8% 98%  
90 8% 90%  
91 15% 82%  
92 17% 67% Median
93 19% 50%  
94 11% 31%  
95 8% 20%  
96 6% 12%  
97 4% 5%  
98 0.6% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.4% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 99.3% Majority
86 5% 98%  
87 3% 94%  
88 2% 91%  
89 15% 89%  
90 23% 74% Median
91 18% 51%  
92 19% 33%  
93 6% 14%  
94 2% 9%  
95 4% 6%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.6% 0.8%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.3% 100%  
82 0.9% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 98.8%  
84 1.3% 98%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 9% 94%  
87 10% 86%  
88 24% 76%  
89 12% 52% Median
90 20% 40%  
91 6% 20%  
92 10% 14%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.9% 99.4%  
76 2% 98.5%  
77 2% 96% Last Result
78 6% 94%  
79 8% 88%  
80 17% 79%  
81 7% 62%  
82 15% 55% Median
83 15% 40%  
84 11% 25%  
85 9% 14% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 1.4% 99.4%  
78 9% 98%  
79 9% 89% Last Result
80 17% 80%  
81 28% 63% Median
82 10% 35%  
83 8% 26%  
84 12% 18%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 3% 4%  
87 0.6% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 1.3% 99.3%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 96%  
75 3% 91%  
76 6% 88%  
77 22% 82%  
78 18% 60% Median
79 23% 42%  
80 14% 19%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.2%  
71 1.5% 98%  
72 5% 97%  
73 7% 92%  
74 12% 85%  
75 11% 73%  
76 19% 62% Median
77 16% 43%  
78 15% 27%  
79 7% 12%  
80 4% 6%  
81 1.0% 1.3%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.7% 99.4%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 8% 97%  
71 4% 88%  
72 6% 84%  
73 24% 78%  
74 18% 55% Median
75 10% 37%  
76 11% 27% Last Result
77 7% 17%  
78 6% 9%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.8% 1.1%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 1.3% 99.1%  
64 3% 98%  
65 7% 95%  
66 12% 88%  
67 7% 76%  
68 17% 69% Median
69 28% 52%  
70 10% 24%  
71 7% 14%  
72 3% 7%  
73 3% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 1.0% 99.8%  
62 9% 98.8%  
63 5% 90%  
64 9% 84%  
65 24% 76%  
66 19% 51% Median
67 6% 32%  
68 10% 25% Last Result
69 9% 15%  
70 3% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.5%  
55 1.4% 98.9%  
56 2% 97%  
57 8% 96%  
58 12% 88%  
59 10% 76%  
60 16% 65% Median
61 27% 50%  
62 10% 23%  
63 6% 13%  
64 4% 6%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.7%  
56 5% 98.8%  
57 13% 94%  
58 26% 81%  
59 17% 55% Median
60 27% 39% Last Result
61 6% 12%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.5%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 7% 97%  
50 8% 90%  
51 14% 82%  
52 29% 68% Median
53 16% 39%  
54 10% 23%  
55 7% 13%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.4%  
45 3% 98.7%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 12% 90%  
49 15% 78%  
50 26% 62% Median
51 21% 37%  
52 7% 15%  
53 6% 9%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.7% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 99.5%  
33 1.3% 99.1%  
34 1.1% 98%  
35 6% 97% Last Result
36 9% 91%  
37 9% 82%  
38 28% 72% Median
39 11% 44%  
40 20% 33%  
41 4% 14%  
42 6% 10%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.4% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations