Opinion Poll by Sentio, 14–21 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Høyre 20.4% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Rødt 4.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Venstre 4.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 52 49–57 48–58 47–59 46–61
Høyre 36 38 31–39 30–39 30–40 29–41
Senterpartiet 28 22 18–26 17–27 17–29 16–30
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–21 17–22 16–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 3–13
Rødt 8 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 1–13
Venstre 8 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–3 1–7 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 3% 99.2%  
48 4% 96% Last Result
49 5% 92%  
50 6% 87%  
51 13% 80%  
52 23% 68% Median
53 7% 44%  
54 9% 37%  
55 4% 28%  
56 11% 23%  
57 5% 12%  
58 3% 7%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.1%  
31 11% 95%  
32 13% 84%  
33 5% 71%  
34 2% 66%  
35 0.7% 65%  
36 1.0% 64% Last Result
37 12% 63%  
38 15% 51% Median
39 32% 36%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.9% 1.1%  
42 0% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.8%  
17 7% 99.3%  
18 10% 93%  
19 9% 82%  
20 8% 73%  
21 8% 65%  
22 23% 57% Median
23 12% 34%  
24 7% 22%  
25 4% 14%  
26 3% 11%  
27 3% 8%  
28 2% 5% Last Result
29 2% 3%  
30 0.5% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 13% 97%  
18 20% 85%  
19 22% 64% Median
20 14% 42%  
21 19% 28% Last Result
22 6% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 5% 98.9%  
11 13% 94%  
12 22% 81%  
13 25% 60% Last Result, Median
14 16% 35%  
15 15% 19%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0.2% 99.2%  
7 4% 99.0%  
8 24% 95%  
9 29% 70% Median
10 25% 42%  
11 10% 16%  
12 5% 6%  
13 1.1% 1.4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0.5% 98.7%  
7 6% 98%  
8 26% 92% Last Result
9 24% 66% Median
10 27% 42%  
11 10% 15%  
12 4% 5%  
13 1.1% 1.3%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 31% 85%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 2% 54%  
7 28% 52% Median
8 17% 24% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 0.8% 1.0%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 29% 97%  
2 36% 68% Median
3 25% 32% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 2% 7%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 100 106 100% 101–111 100–112 99–113 96–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 99 100% 94–104 94–105 92–106 90–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 96 100% 92–102 91–103 90–104 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 97 100% 92–101 91–103 90–103 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 87 80% 83–92 82–93 81–94 79–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 86 63% 81–91 80–92 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 72 84 46% 80–89 78–90 77–92 75–93
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 84 50% 80–89 79–90 77–91 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 76 1.3% 72–82 71–83 70–84 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 74 0.1% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 72 0% 68–77 66–77 66–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 66 0% 62–70 61–70 60–72 58–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 63 0% 58–67 57–68 56–70 54–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 60 0% 56–65 55–66 53–67 51–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 57 0% 49–60 48–60 48–61 47–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 43 0% 40–48 38–49 37–50 35–52
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 28 0% 24–35 23–37 22–38 21–40

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.6% 99.7%  
97 0.6% 99.2%  
98 1.0% 98.6%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 96% Last Result
101 5% 93%  
102 9% 88%  
103 5% 79%  
104 8% 74%  
105 14% 66% Median
106 8% 52%  
107 14% 44%  
108 8% 30%  
109 6% 22%  
110 5% 16%  
111 4% 12%  
112 4% 8%  
113 2% 4%  
114 0.6% 1.2%  
115 0.4% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.8%  
91 0.8% 99.2%  
92 1.3% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 6% 95%  
95 5% 89% Last Result
96 12% 84%  
97 12% 72%  
98 8% 60% Median
99 8% 52%  
100 12% 45%  
101 9% 32%  
102 6% 23%  
103 5% 17%  
104 5% 12%  
105 2% 7%  
106 3% 4%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.6% 99.6%  
89 1.1% 99.0%  
90 2% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 4% 94% Last Result
93 9% 90%  
94 4% 81%  
95 18% 77%  
96 12% 59% Median
97 8% 47%  
98 7% 39%  
99 13% 32%  
100 4% 19%  
101 4% 15%  
102 4% 11%  
103 4% 7%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.5% 99.7%  
88 0.6% 99.2%  
89 0.6% 98.5%  
90 2% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 8% 95%  
93 9% 86%  
94 4% 77%  
95 12% 73%  
96 5% 61% Median
97 20% 56% Last Result
98 9% 36%  
99 7% 27%  
100 7% 20%  
101 5% 13%  
102 3% 9%  
103 4% 6%  
104 0.9% 1.3%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.6%  
80 0.9% 99.1%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 3% 97%  
83 6% 94%  
84 8% 88%  
85 7% 80% Majority
86 8% 73%  
87 22% 65% Median
88 7% 43%  
89 12% 36% Last Result
90 8% 24%  
91 4% 16%  
92 4% 12%  
93 5% 8%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.5% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 0.8% 99.3%  
79 1.2% 98%  
80 5% 97%  
81 2% 92%  
82 4% 89% Last Result
83 12% 85%  
84 10% 74%  
85 10% 63% Median, Majority
86 12% 53%  
87 10% 41%  
88 8% 31%  
89 5% 23%  
90 4% 18%  
91 7% 14%  
92 3% 7%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.5% 3%  
95 0.3% 1.1%  
96 0.7% 0.8%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 1.1% 99.1%  
77 0.9% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 4% 94%  
80 4% 90%  
81 9% 86%  
82 6% 78%  
83 17% 72% Median
84 10% 55%  
85 16% 46% Majority
86 5% 30%  
87 7% 24%  
88 7% 18%  
89 3% 11%  
90 3% 7%  
91 1.0% 4%  
92 2% 3%  
93 1.1% 1.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 1.3% 99.5%  
77 2% 98%  
78 1.1% 96%  
79 5% 95%  
80 4% 90%  
81 7% 86%  
82 7% 79%  
83 6% 72%  
84 17% 66%  
85 10% 50% Majority
86 15% 40%  
87 5% 25%  
88 8% 20% Median
89 3% 12%  
90 4% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.9% 1.5%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1% Last Result
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 99.5%  
70 4% 98.7%  
71 5% 95%  
72 4% 90%  
73 3% 87%  
74 7% 84%  
75 13% 77%  
76 19% 64% Median
77 7% 45%  
78 7% 38%  
79 8% 30% Last Result
80 5% 22%  
81 5% 17%  
82 6% 11%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.3% 1.3% Majority
86 0.6% 1.0%  
87 0.1% 0.5%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.8% 99.4%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 6% 96%  
70 4% 91%  
71 5% 86%  
72 4% 81%  
73 11% 77%  
74 22% 66% Median
75 12% 44%  
76 5% 32% Last Result
77 9% 27%  
78 5% 18%  
79 4% 13%  
80 5% 10%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 1.1% 99.2%  
66 5% 98%  
67 3% 93%  
68 5% 90%  
69 9% 85%  
70 8% 76%  
71 9% 69% Last Result
72 20% 59%  
73 5% 39%  
74 12% 35%  
75 3% 23% Median
76 8% 19%  
77 8% 11%  
78 1.3% 4%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.3% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.5%  
60 2% 98%  
61 4% 96% Last Result
62 4% 92%  
63 9% 88%  
64 11% 79%  
65 18% 68% Median
66 11% 50%  
67 14% 39%  
68 7% 25%  
69 6% 18%  
70 7% 12%  
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.2%  
56 3% 98.6%  
57 4% 96%  
58 4% 92%  
59 5% 87%  
60 7% 83%  
61 8% 76%  
62 15% 67%  
63 8% 52%  
64 14% 44%  
65 8% 30%  
66 5% 22% Median
67 7% 16%  
68 4% 9% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.3%  
53 1.3% 98.7%  
54 2% 97%  
55 5% 95%  
56 5% 91%  
57 3% 85%  
58 6% 82%  
59 14% 76%  
60 15% 62%  
61 10% 47%  
62 3% 37%  
63 10% 34%  
64 10% 24% Median
65 5% 14% Last Result
66 5% 9%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.4% 0.4%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 6% 99.1%  
49 4% 93%  
50 6% 89%  
51 7% 83%  
52 6% 76%  
53 3% 69%  
54 3% 66%  
55 3% 63%  
56 8% 60%  
57 14% 51% Last Result, Median
58 15% 37%  
59 9% 23%  
60 9% 14%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.5%  
38 2% 97%  
39 2% 94%  
40 9% 92%  
41 11% 83%  
42 11% 72%  
43 20% 61%  
44 9% 41%  
45 6% 33%  
46 4% 27%  
47 8% 23% Last Result, Median
48 8% 15%  
49 3% 7%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.9% 1.3%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 2% 97%  
24 5% 94%  
25 5% 89%  
26 17% 84%  
27 8% 68%  
28 10% 59%  
29 5% 49%  
30 6% 44%  
31 7% 38% Median
32 8% 31%  
33 9% 23%  
34 3% 14%  
35 3% 11%  
36 3% 8%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 1.1% 2% Last Result
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations