Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 1 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 27.9% 26.1–29.8% 25.6–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
Høyre 20.4% 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 16.9–21.1% 16.6–21.5% 15.9–22.3%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.8% 9.2–14.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.8%
Rødt 4.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.6%
Venstre 4.6% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 52 48–56 47–57 46–58 44–59
Høyre 36 33 30–36 29–37 28–38 27–40
Senterpartiet 28 25 21–29 20–30 20–31 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 18–23 17–24 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 13–16 12–17 11–18 10–19
Rødt 8 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 1–13
Venstre 8 7 3–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 2–9 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–3 1–7 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 3% 98%  
47 2% 95%  
48 6% 93% Last Result
49 10% 87%  
50 10% 77%  
51 15% 68%  
52 19% 53% Median
53 11% 34%  
54 6% 23%  
55 6% 17%  
56 5% 11%  
57 3% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.0% 99.6%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 5% 97%  
30 8% 91%  
31 18% 83%  
32 14% 65%  
33 11% 52% Median
34 17% 41%  
35 7% 24%  
36 10% 17% Last Result
37 2% 7%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.2%  
20 3% 98%  
21 7% 95%  
22 12% 87%  
23 10% 75%  
24 9% 65%  
25 8% 56% Median
26 13% 48%  
27 11% 35%  
28 9% 24% Last Result
29 6% 15%  
30 6% 10%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.9% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 99.7%  
17 6% 98%  
18 16% 93%  
19 19% 76%  
20 13% 58% Median
21 18% 45% Last Result
22 14% 27%  
23 6% 13%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.7% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.4%  
12 6% 97%  
13 14% 92% Last Result
14 15% 78%  
15 39% 63% Median
16 15% 24%  
17 6% 9%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 0.1% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0.2% 98.7%  
7 5% 98.5%  
8 26% 93% Last Result
9 25% 68% Median
10 20% 42%  
11 15% 22%  
12 6% 7%  
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 23% 95%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0.4% 72%  
7 29% 72% Median
8 25% 43% Last Result
9 13% 18%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 10% 99.0%  
3 24% 89% Last Result
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0.5% 65%  
7 26% 64% Median
8 25% 38%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 16% 98%  
2 50% 81% Median
3 24% 31% Last Result
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.3% 8%  
7 6% 7%  
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 107 100% 102–111 100–112 100–114 96–116
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 101 100% 97–105 96–106 94–107 92–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 101 100% 95–104 93–105 92–107 90–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 98 100% 92–102 91–102 89–104 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 92 98% 88–95 86–96 85–97 83–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 87 76% 82–92 80–93 79–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 86 62% 80–90 78–91 77–92 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 82 22% 76–87 75–88 73–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 80 5% 75–83 74–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 77 0.4% 73–80 71–81 70–83 68–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 68 0% 64–72 63–73 62–74 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 58–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 62 0% 58–66 56–68 55–69 53–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 59 0% 55–64 54–66 53–67 50–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 53 0% 49–58 48–59 47–60 44–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 42 0% 38–46 37–47 35–48 33–50
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 34 0% 29–39 27–41 26–42 24–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.3%  
98 0.5% 99.1%  
99 0.7% 98.5%  
100 4% 98% Last Result
101 3% 94%  
102 3% 91%  
103 7% 88%  
104 8% 81%  
105 4% 73%  
106 10% 69%  
107 13% 59%  
108 19% 46% Median
109 6% 26%  
110 8% 20%  
111 5% 12%  
112 2% 7%  
113 1.4% 4%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.3% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.6%  
117 0.3% 0.3%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 1.0% 99.5%  
93 0.8% 98.6%  
94 0.7% 98%  
95 2% 97%  
96 3% 95%  
97 7% 93% Last Result
98 8% 86%  
99 9% 77%  
100 12% 69%  
101 22% 56% Median
102 9% 34%  
103 8% 25%  
104 5% 17%  
105 6% 12%  
106 3% 6%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.5% 1.2%  
109 0.4% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.2% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 1.3% 99.2%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 96%  
94 3% 94%  
95 7% 92% Last Result
96 5% 84%  
97 6% 79%  
98 7% 73%  
99 8% 66%  
100 6% 59%  
101 11% 53% Median
102 23% 42%  
103 6% 19%  
104 6% 13%  
105 3% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.1% 3%  
108 0.4% 1.4%  
109 0.8% 1.0%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.3% 99.3%  
89 2% 99.0%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 95%  
92 4% 93% Last Result
93 6% 89%  
94 7% 84%  
95 5% 77%  
96 9% 72%  
97 6% 63%  
98 9% 56%  
99 16% 48% Median
100 17% 32%  
101 3% 15%  
102 7% 12%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.2% 3%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.5% 0.5%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 0.8% 98.9%  
85 1.3% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 4% 94%  
88 5% 91%  
89 8% 86% Last Result
90 12% 78%  
91 14% 66%  
92 12% 51% Median
93 18% 40%  
94 9% 21%  
95 6% 12%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.9% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 3% 97%  
81 3% 94%  
82 4% 91%  
83 4% 88%  
84 7% 83%  
85 11% 76% Majority
86 8% 65%  
87 11% 56% Median
88 9% 45%  
89 9% 36%  
90 8% 27%  
91 5% 19%  
92 5% 14%  
93 4% 9%  
94 1.3% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
97 0.3% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 1.3% 99.1%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 7% 92%  
81 2% 85%  
82 6% 83% Last Result
83 6% 77%  
84 9% 71%  
85 10% 62% Majority
86 9% 52% Median
87 21% 44%  
88 6% 23%  
89 5% 17%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.4% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.4% Last Result
73 0.8% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 5% 94%  
77 6% 89%  
78 5% 83%  
79 8% 79%  
80 9% 70%  
81 10% 62%  
82 11% 52%  
83 9% 41% Median
84 11% 32%  
85 7% 22% Majority
86 4% 15%  
87 3% 11%  
88 3% 8%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.8% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 99.3%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 4% 92%  
76 4% 88%  
77 15% 84%  
78 7% 69%  
79 12% 63% Last Result, Median
80 19% 51%  
81 13% 32%  
82 7% 19%  
83 4% 12%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.4%  
88 0.6% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 1.1% 99.1%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 6% 93%  
74 7% 87%  
75 13% 79%  
76 9% 66% Last Result
77 10% 58% Median
78 21% 48%  
79 12% 27%  
80 7% 15%  
81 3% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.4%  
61 1.0% 98.8%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 95%  
64 6% 92%  
65 6% 85%  
66 9% 80%  
67 8% 71%  
68 22% 62%  
69 12% 40% Median
70 9% 29%  
71 8% 20% Last Result
72 6% 12%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.4% 4%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.6% 2%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.8% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.0%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 4% 97% Last Result
62 4% 93%  
63 6% 89%  
64 10% 83%  
65 8% 74%  
66 18% 65%  
67 13% 47% Median
68 13% 34%  
69 8% 21%  
70 4% 13%  
71 4% 9%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 0.3% 99.0%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 2% 96%  
57 3% 95%  
58 6% 92%  
59 8% 86%  
60 6% 77%  
61 20% 71%  
62 13% 51% Median
63 11% 38%  
64 4% 28%  
65 7% 24%  
66 7% 16%  
67 2% 10%  
68 3% 7% Last Result
69 3% 4%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.4%  
52 0.9% 98.9%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 5% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 9% 83%  
58 10% 74%  
59 20% 64%  
60 9% 44% Median
61 8% 35%  
62 5% 27%  
63 9% 22%  
64 4% 13%  
65 3% 9% Last Result
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.2%  
69 0.2% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.5%  
46 1.0% 99.0%  
47 1.2% 98%  
48 4% 97%  
49 6% 92%  
50 12% 86%  
51 8% 74%  
52 16% 66%  
53 9% 50% Median
54 8% 42%  
55 9% 34%  
56 9% 25%  
57 5% 15% Last Result
58 3% 10%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.9%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.3%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 2% 97%  
37 1.4% 95%  
38 4% 94%  
39 10% 89%  
40 12% 79%  
41 14% 67%  
42 16% 53% Median
43 13% 37%  
44 10% 25%  
45 4% 15%  
46 3% 11%  
47 3% 7% Last Result
48 2% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 1.5% 99.4%  
26 2% 98%  
27 3% 96%  
28 2% 93%  
29 4% 91%  
30 6% 87%  
31 8% 81%  
32 9% 73%  
33 8% 64%  
34 8% 56% Median
35 14% 48%  
36 6% 35%  
37 6% 28%  
38 10% 22%  
39 3% 12% Last Result
40 3% 9%  
41 2% 6%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations