Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 3 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Arbeiderpartiet |
26.2% |
25.5% |
23.7–27.6% |
23.1–28.1% |
22.7–28.6% |
21.8–29.6% |
Høyre |
20.4% |
20.5% |
18.8–22.4% |
18.3–22.9% |
17.9–23.4% |
17.1–24.3% |
Senterpartiet |
13.5% |
13.1% |
11.7–14.8% |
11.3–15.2% |
11.0–15.6% |
10.4–16.4% |
Fremskrittspartiet |
11.6% |
12.0% |
10.7–13.6% |
10.3–14.1% |
10.0–14.4% |
9.4–15.2% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
7.6% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.4% |
7.5–10.8% |
7.3–11.2% |
6.7–11.9% |
Rødt |
4.7% |
4.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.7–6.6% |
3.3–7.2% |
Venstre |
4.6% |
4.5% |
3.7–5.5% |
3.4–5.8% |
3.2–6.1% |
2.9–6.6% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
3.9% |
3.7% |
3.0–4.7% |
2.8–5.0% |
2.6–5.3% |
2.3–5.8% |
Kristelig Folkeparti |
3.8% |
3.4% |
2.7–4.3% |
2.5–4.6% |
2.3–4.8% |
2.1–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
41 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
42 |
2% |
97% |
|
43 |
8% |
95% |
|
44 |
11% |
87% |
|
45 |
13% |
76% |
|
46 |
13% |
63% |
Median |
47 |
12% |
50% |
|
48 |
7% |
37% |
Last Result |
49 |
13% |
31% |
|
50 |
5% |
18% |
|
51 |
6% |
14% |
|
52 |
4% |
8% |
|
53 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
54 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
32 |
4% |
96% |
|
33 |
15% |
93% |
|
34 |
14% |
78% |
|
35 |
7% |
64% |
|
36 |
11% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
37 |
13% |
46% |
|
38 |
10% |
32% |
|
39 |
11% |
23% |
|
40 |
7% |
12% |
|
41 |
2% |
5% |
|
42 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
43 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
2% |
97% |
|
21 |
7% |
95% |
|
22 |
11% |
88% |
|
23 |
10% |
77% |
|
24 |
7% |
67% |
|
25 |
11% |
60% |
Median |
26 |
12% |
48% |
|
27 |
8% |
36% |
|
28 |
7% |
28% |
Last Result |
29 |
14% |
22% |
|
30 |
4% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
4% |
|
32 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
18 |
4% |
93% |
|
19 |
10% |
89% |
|
20 |
22% |
79% |
|
21 |
29% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
22 |
7% |
28% |
|
23 |
6% |
21% |
|
24 |
6% |
15% |
|
25 |
5% |
9% |
|
26 |
2% |
4% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
3% |
98% |
|
13 |
8% |
96% |
Last Result |
14 |
13% |
88% |
|
15 |
17% |
75% |
|
16 |
22% |
58% |
Median |
17 |
17% |
36% |
|
18 |
9% |
19% |
|
19 |
5% |
10% |
|
20 |
4% |
5% |
|
21 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
11% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
3 |
0% |
89% |
|
4 |
0% |
89% |
|
5 |
0% |
89% |
|
6 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
7 |
9% |
88% |
|
8 |
30% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
23% |
48% |
|
10 |
13% |
25% |
|
11 |
9% |
12% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
|
3 |
17% |
95% |
|
4 |
0% |
78% |
|
5 |
0% |
78% |
|
6 |
2% |
78% |
|
7 |
21% |
76% |
|
8 |
27% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
17% |
28% |
|
10 |
9% |
11% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
|
2 |
20% |
92% |
|
3 |
32% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
41% |
|
5 |
0% |
41% |
|
6 |
4% |
41% |
|
7 |
10% |
36% |
|
8 |
22% |
26% |
|
9 |
3% |
4% |
|
10 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
2 |
40% |
91% |
|
3 |
34% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
17% |
|
5 |
0% |
17% |
|
6 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
7 |
10% |
16% |
|
8 |
5% |
6% |
|
9 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
100 |
101 |
100% |
95–105 |
93–107 |
92–109 |
89–111 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt |
97 |
96 |
99.6% |
90–102 |
89–102 |
87–104 |
85–106 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti |
95 |
96 |
99.5% |
90–101 |
88–102 |
86–104 |
85–106 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
92 |
93 |
96% |
87–98 |
85–99 |
84–101 |
81–103 |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
96 |
93 |
98% |
87–98 |
87–99 |
85–100 |
81–103 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
89 |
88 |
79% |
82–93 |
82–94 |
80–95 |
78–99 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti |
82 |
80 |
17% |
73–85 |
72–87 |
71–89 |
68–90 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti |
79 |
76 |
1.1% |
69–80 |
68–82 |
67–84 |
65–86 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
72 |
75 |
1.4% |
71–80 |
69–82 |
68–83 |
65–88 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti |
71 |
72 |
0.2% |
66–78 |
65–79 |
63–80 |
61–83 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet |
76 |
72 |
0% |
67–77 |
66–78 |
64–79 |
63–81 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
68 |
67 |
0% |
61–73 |
60–74 |
59–75 |
57–79 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre |
65 |
64 |
0% |
59–69 |
57–71 |
56–73 |
55–75 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
61 |
62 |
0% |
59–68 |
58–68 |
57–70 |
54–72 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet |
57 |
57 |
0% |
52–62 |
51–64 |
50–65 |
48–67 |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
47 |
46 |
0% |
42–51 |
40–53 |
39–54 |
37–56 |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
39 |
35 |
0% |
30–41 |
28–42 |
27–44 |
25–46 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
86 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
90 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
91 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
92 |
2% |
98% |
|
93 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
94 |
3% |
94% |
|
95 |
5% |
92% |
|
96 |
4% |
87% |
|
97 |
4% |
83% |
|
98 |
8% |
79% |
Median |
99 |
11% |
71% |
|
100 |
8% |
60% |
Last Result |
101 |
11% |
52% |
|
102 |
5% |
41% |
|
103 |
8% |
35% |
|
104 |
12% |
27% |
|
105 |
7% |
16% |
|
106 |
3% |
9% |
|
107 |
2% |
6% |
|
108 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
109 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
110 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
111 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
113 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
85 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
Majority |
86 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
87 |
1.2% |
98.6% |
|
88 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
89 |
2% |
96% |
|
90 |
5% |
94% |
|
91 |
8% |
89% |
|
92 |
4% |
81% |
|
93 |
7% |
77% |
|
94 |
6% |
70% |
|
95 |
7% |
64% |
Median |
96 |
10% |
57% |
|
97 |
10% |
47% |
Last Result |
98 |
10% |
37% |
|
99 |
4% |
27% |
|
100 |
7% |
23% |
|
101 |
5% |
17% |
|
102 |
7% |
11% |
|
103 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
104 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
105 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
106 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
108 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
85 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
Majority |
86 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
87 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
88 |
3% |
96% |
|
89 |
2% |
93% |
|
90 |
3% |
91% |
|
91 |
3% |
88% |
|
92 |
7% |
85% |
|
93 |
4% |
78% |
Median |
94 |
8% |
74% |
|
95 |
13% |
66% |
Last Result |
96 |
12% |
53% |
|
97 |
7% |
41% |
|
98 |
10% |
34% |
|
99 |
5% |
24% |
|
100 |
4% |
19% |
|
101 |
8% |
15% |
|
102 |
3% |
7% |
|
103 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
104 |
2% |
3% |
|
105 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
82 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
83 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
84 |
3% |
98% |
|
85 |
2% |
96% |
Majority |
86 |
4% |
94% |
|
87 |
5% |
90% |
|
88 |
4% |
86% |
|
89 |
3% |
82% |
|
90 |
8% |
78% |
Median |
91 |
7% |
70% |
|
92 |
8% |
63% |
Last Result |
93 |
12% |
55% |
|
94 |
13% |
43% |
|
95 |
7% |
30% |
|
96 |
7% |
23% |
|
97 |
3% |
17% |
|
98 |
7% |
13% |
|
99 |
2% |
6% |
|
100 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
101 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
102 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
103 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
105 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
81 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
82 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
84 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
85 |
0.8% |
98% |
Majority |
86 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
87 |
8% |
95% |
|
88 |
4% |
87% |
|
89 |
9% |
83% |
|
90 |
6% |
74% |
|
91 |
9% |
68% |
|
92 |
9% |
59% |
|
93 |
6% |
50% |
Median |
94 |
10% |
44% |
|
95 |
11% |
34% |
|
96 |
6% |
24% |
Last Result |
97 |
7% |
18% |
|
98 |
5% |
11% |
|
99 |
2% |
6% |
|
100 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
101 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
102 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
103 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
106 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
79 |
1.3% |
99.2% |
|
80 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
81 |
2% |
97% |
|
82 |
6% |
95% |
|
83 |
5% |
89% |
|
84 |
5% |
85% |
|
85 |
6% |
79% |
Majority |
86 |
7% |
73% |
|
87 |
11% |
66% |
Median |
88 |
7% |
55% |
|
89 |
9% |
48% |
Last Result |
90 |
14% |
39% |
|
91 |
9% |
25% |
|
92 |
4% |
16% |
|
93 |
3% |
12% |
|
94 |
5% |
9% |
|
95 |
2% |
4% |
|
96 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
97 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
98 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
99 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
100 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
69 |
0.7% |
99.4% |
|
70 |
0.9% |
98.7% |
|
71 |
2% |
98% |
|
72 |
4% |
96% |
|
73 |
2% |
92% |
|
74 |
3% |
90% |
|
75 |
2% |
87% |
|
76 |
6% |
84% |
|
77 |
5% |
78% |
Median |
78 |
9% |
73% |
|
79 |
8% |
64% |
|
80 |
10% |
56% |
|
81 |
13% |
46% |
|
82 |
6% |
33% |
Last Result |
83 |
7% |
27% |
|
84 |
2% |
20% |
|
85 |
7% |
17% |
Majority |
86 |
3% |
10% |
|
87 |
3% |
7% |
|
88 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
89 |
2% |
3% |
|
90 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
93 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
65 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
66 |
0.7% |
99.3% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
98.6% |
|
68 |
2% |
97% |
|
69 |
7% |
95% |
|
70 |
4% |
88% |
|
71 |
3% |
84% |
|
72 |
4% |
82% |
|
73 |
12% |
78% |
|
74 |
6% |
66% |
Median |
75 |
10% |
60% |
|
76 |
11% |
50% |
|
77 |
9% |
39% |
|
78 |
8% |
30% |
|
79 |
5% |
22% |
Last Result |
80 |
7% |
16% |
|
81 |
3% |
9% |
|
82 |
2% |
6% |
|
83 |
2% |
4% |
|
84 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
85 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
Majority |
86 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
88 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
66 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
67 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
68 |
3% |
98% |
|
69 |
2% |
95% |
|
70 |
3% |
93% |
|
71 |
7% |
90% |
|
72 |
9% |
83% |
Last Result |
73 |
8% |
75% |
Median |
74 |
12% |
67% |
|
75 |
12% |
55% |
|
76 |
6% |
43% |
|
77 |
8% |
37% |
|
78 |
7% |
29% |
|
79 |
6% |
22% |
|
80 |
7% |
16% |
|
81 |
3% |
9% |
|
82 |
3% |
6% |
|
83 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
85 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
Majority |
86 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
87 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
88 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
64 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
65 |
3% |
96% |
|
66 |
3% |
93% |
|
67 |
11% |
90% |
|
68 |
5% |
79% |
|
69 |
8% |
74% |
|
70 |
4% |
66% |
|
71 |
10% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
72 |
11% |
52% |
|
73 |
8% |
41% |
|
74 |
4% |
33% |
|
75 |
6% |
29% |
|
76 |
6% |
23% |
|
77 |
3% |
17% |
|
78 |
7% |
14% |
|
79 |
4% |
7% |
|
80 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
81 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
82 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
63 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
64 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
65 |
2% |
97% |
|
66 |
4% |
96% |
|
67 |
7% |
91% |
|
68 |
3% |
84% |
|
69 |
5% |
81% |
|
70 |
10% |
76% |
|
71 |
6% |
66% |
Median |
72 |
11% |
59% |
|
73 |
11% |
49% |
|
74 |
13% |
38% |
|
75 |
5% |
25% |
|
76 |
7% |
20% |
Last Result |
77 |
5% |
13% |
|
78 |
5% |
9% |
|
79 |
2% |
4% |
|
80 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
81 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
58 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
59 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
60 |
2% |
96% |
|
61 |
5% |
95% |
|
62 |
4% |
90% |
|
63 |
5% |
86% |
|
64 |
7% |
82% |
|
65 |
12% |
74% |
|
66 |
8% |
62% |
|
67 |
6% |
54% |
|
68 |
8% |
48% |
Last Result, Median |
69 |
8% |
40% |
|
70 |
10% |
32% |
|
71 |
7% |
22% |
|
72 |
4% |
15% |
|
73 |
3% |
11% |
|
74 |
4% |
8% |
|
75 |
2% |
4% |
|
76 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
77 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
79 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
56 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
57 |
3% |
97% |
|
58 |
3% |
94% |
|
59 |
7% |
92% |
|
60 |
5% |
84% |
|
61 |
7% |
79% |
|
62 |
7% |
72% |
|
63 |
12% |
66% |
|
64 |
10% |
53% |
|
65 |
8% |
44% |
Last Result, Median |
66 |
5% |
36% |
|
67 |
10% |
30% |
|
68 |
6% |
20% |
|
69 |
6% |
14% |
|
70 |
3% |
9% |
|
71 |
2% |
6% |
|
72 |
2% |
5% |
|
73 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
74 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
75 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
77 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
56 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
57 |
2% |
98% |
|
58 |
5% |
95% |
|
59 |
6% |
91% |
|
60 |
11% |
84% |
|
61 |
12% |
74% |
Last Result |
62 |
18% |
62% |
Median |
63 |
9% |
44% |
|
64 |
7% |
35% |
|
65 |
8% |
28% |
|
66 |
5% |
20% |
|
67 |
4% |
15% |
|
68 |
7% |
12% |
|
69 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
70 |
2% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
73 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
1.5% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
51 |
2% |
97% |
|
52 |
6% |
94% |
|
53 |
7% |
88% |
|
54 |
15% |
81% |
|
55 |
5% |
67% |
|
56 |
5% |
61% |
|
57 |
12% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
58 |
6% |
44% |
|
59 |
11% |
38% |
|
60 |
10% |
28% |
|
61 |
4% |
18% |
|
62 |
5% |
13% |
|
63 |
2% |
8% |
|
64 |
2% |
6% |
|
65 |
2% |
4% |
|
66 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
39 |
2% |
98% |
|
40 |
3% |
96% |
|
41 |
3% |
94% |
|
42 |
7% |
90% |
|
43 |
7% |
84% |
|
44 |
7% |
76% |
|
45 |
13% |
70% |
|
46 |
9% |
57% |
|
47 |
12% |
48% |
Last Result, Median |
48 |
6% |
36% |
|
49 |
12% |
30% |
|
50 |
7% |
18% |
|
51 |
4% |
11% |
|
52 |
2% |
7% |
|
53 |
3% |
6% |
|
54 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
27 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
28 |
2% |
97% |
|
29 |
2% |
94% |
|
30 |
5% |
93% |
|
31 |
7% |
88% |
|
32 |
5% |
81% |
|
33 |
8% |
76% |
|
34 |
8% |
68% |
|
35 |
10% |
60% |
|
36 |
11% |
50% |
Median |
37 |
7% |
39% |
|
38 |
7% |
32% |
|
39 |
5% |
25% |
Last Result |
40 |
7% |
20% |
|
41 |
7% |
13% |
|
42 |
1.5% |
6% |
|
43 |
2% |
5% |
|
44 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 3 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 830
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%