Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 3 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 25.5% | 23.7–27.6% | 23.1–28.1% | 22.7–28.6% | 21.8–29.6% |
| Høyre | 20.4% | 20.5% | 18.8–22.4% | 18.3–22.9% | 17.9–23.4% | 17.1–24.3% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 13.1% | 11.7–14.8% | 11.3–15.2% | 11.0–15.6% | 10.4–16.4% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.6% | 10.3–14.1% | 10.0–14.4% | 9.4–15.2% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.3–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.3–7.2% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% | 3.2–6.1% | 2.9–6.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.6–5.3% | 2.3–5.8% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–4.8% | 2.1–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 46 | 43–51 | 43–52 | 41–53 | 40–56 |
| Høyre | 36 | 36 | 33–40 | 32–40 | 31–42 | 29–44 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 25 | 21–29 | 20–30 | 19–31 | 18–32 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–26 | 16–28 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 16 | 13–18 | 13–20 | 12–20 | 11–21 |
| Rødt | 8 | 8 | 1–11 | 1–11 | 1–12 | 1–13 |
| Venstre | 8 | 8 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 2–10 | 2–11 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 3 | 2–8 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–10 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 3 | 2–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 0–9 |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 97% | |
| 43 | 8% | 95% | |
| 44 | 11% | 87% | |
| 45 | 13% | 76% | |
| 46 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 47 | 12% | 50% | |
| 48 | 7% | 37% | Last Result |
| 49 | 13% | 31% | |
| 50 | 5% | 18% | |
| 51 | 6% | 14% | |
| 52 | 4% | 8% | |
| 53 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 4% | 96% | |
| 33 | 15% | 93% | |
| 34 | 14% | 78% | |
| 35 | 7% | 64% | |
| 36 | 11% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 37 | 13% | 46% | |
| 38 | 10% | 32% | |
| 39 | 11% | 23% | |
| 40 | 7% | 12% | |
| 41 | 2% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 97% | |
| 21 | 7% | 95% | |
| 22 | 11% | 88% | |
| 23 | 10% | 77% | |
| 24 | 7% | 67% | |
| 25 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 26 | 12% | 48% | |
| 27 | 8% | 36% | |
| 28 | 7% | 28% | Last Result |
| 29 | 14% | 22% | |
| 30 | 4% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 4% | 93% | |
| 19 | 10% | 89% | |
| 20 | 22% | 79% | |
| 21 | 29% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 22 | 7% | 28% | |
| 23 | 6% | 21% | |
| 24 | 6% | 15% | |
| 25 | 5% | 9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 4% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 98% | |
| 13 | 8% | 96% | Last Result |
| 14 | 13% | 88% | |
| 15 | 17% | 75% | |
| 16 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 17 | 17% | 36% | |
| 18 | 9% | 19% | |
| 19 | 5% | 10% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0% | 89% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 7 | 9% | 88% | |
| 8 | 30% | 79% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 23% | 48% | |
| 10 | 13% | 25% | |
| 11 | 9% | 12% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 17% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 78% | |
| 5 | 0% | 78% | |
| 6 | 2% | 78% | |
| 7 | 21% | 76% | |
| 8 | 27% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 17% | 28% | |
| 10 | 9% | 11% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 20% | 92% | |
| 3 | 32% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 41% | |
| 5 | 0% | 41% | |
| 6 | 4% | 41% | |
| 7 | 10% | 36% | |
| 8 | 22% | 26% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 40% | 91% | |
| 3 | 34% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0% | 17% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 7 | 10% | 16% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 101 | 100% | 95–105 | 93–107 | 92–109 | 89–111 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 97 | 96 | 99.6% | 90–102 | 89–102 | 87–104 | 85–106 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 95 | 96 | 99.5% | 90–101 | 88–102 | 86–104 | 85–106 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 93 | 96% | 87–98 | 85–99 | 84–101 | 81–103 |
| Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 93 | 98% | 87–98 | 87–99 | 85–100 | 81–103 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 89 | 88 | 79% | 82–93 | 82–94 | 80–95 | 78–99 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 82 | 80 | 17% | 73–85 | 72–87 | 71–89 | 68–90 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 76 | 1.1% | 69–80 | 68–82 | 67–84 | 65–86 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 75 | 1.4% | 71–80 | 69–82 | 68–83 | 65–88 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 71 | 72 | 0.2% | 66–78 | 65–79 | 63–80 | 61–83 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 72 | 0% | 67–77 | 66–78 | 64–79 | 63–81 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 67 | 0% | 61–73 | 60–74 | 59–75 | 57–79 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 64 | 0% | 59–69 | 57–71 | 56–73 | 55–75 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 62 | 0% | 59–68 | 58–68 | 57–70 | 54–72 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 57 | 0% | 52–62 | 51–64 | 50–65 | 48–67 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 46 | 0% | 42–51 | 40–53 | 39–54 | 37–56 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 35 | 0% | 30–41 | 28–42 | 27–44 | 25–46 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 94 | 3% | 94% | |
| 95 | 5% | 92% | |
| 96 | 4% | 87% | |
| 97 | 4% | 83% | |
| 98 | 8% | 79% | Median |
| 99 | 11% | 71% | |
| 100 | 8% | 60% | Last Result |
| 101 | 11% | 52% | |
| 102 | 5% | 41% | |
| 103 | 8% | 35% | |
| 104 | 12% | 27% | |
| 105 | 7% | 16% | |
| 106 | 3% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 6% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 89 | 2% | 96% | |
| 90 | 5% | 94% | |
| 91 | 8% | 89% | |
| 92 | 4% | 81% | |
| 93 | 7% | 77% | |
| 94 | 6% | 70% | |
| 95 | 7% | 64% | Median |
| 96 | 10% | 57% | |
| 97 | 10% | 47% | Last Result |
| 98 | 10% | 37% | |
| 99 | 4% | 27% | |
| 100 | 7% | 23% | |
| 101 | 5% | 17% | |
| 102 | 7% | 11% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 104 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 88 | 3% | 96% | |
| 89 | 2% | 93% | |
| 90 | 3% | 91% | |
| 91 | 3% | 88% | |
| 92 | 7% | 85% | |
| 93 | 4% | 78% | Median |
| 94 | 8% | 74% | |
| 95 | 13% | 66% | Last Result |
| 96 | 12% | 53% | |
| 97 | 7% | 41% | |
| 98 | 10% | 34% | |
| 99 | 5% | 24% | |
| 100 | 4% | 19% | |
| 101 | 8% | 15% | |
| 102 | 3% | 7% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 104 | 2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 84 | 3% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 96% | Majority |
| 86 | 4% | 94% | |
| 87 | 5% | 90% | |
| 88 | 4% | 86% | |
| 89 | 3% | 82% | |
| 90 | 8% | 78% | Median |
| 91 | 7% | 70% | |
| 92 | 8% | 63% | Last Result |
| 93 | 12% | 55% | |
| 94 | 13% | 43% | |
| 95 | 7% | 30% | |
| 96 | 7% | 23% | |
| 97 | 3% | 17% | |
| 98 | 7% | 13% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 98% | Majority |
| 86 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 87 | 8% | 95% | |
| 88 | 4% | 87% | |
| 89 | 9% | 83% | |
| 90 | 6% | 74% | |
| 91 | 9% | 68% | |
| 92 | 9% | 59% | |
| 93 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 94 | 10% | 44% | |
| 95 | 11% | 34% | |
| 96 | 6% | 24% | Last Result |
| 97 | 7% | 18% | |
| 98 | 5% | 11% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 81 | 2% | 97% | |
| 82 | 6% | 95% | |
| 83 | 5% | 89% | |
| 84 | 5% | 85% | |
| 85 | 6% | 79% | Majority |
| 86 | 7% | 73% | |
| 87 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 88 | 7% | 55% | |
| 89 | 9% | 48% | Last Result |
| 90 | 14% | 39% | |
| 91 | 9% | 25% | |
| 92 | 4% | 16% | |
| 93 | 3% | 12% | |
| 94 | 5% | 9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 2% | 92% | |
| 74 | 3% | 90% | |
| 75 | 2% | 87% | |
| 76 | 6% | 84% | |
| 77 | 5% | 78% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 73% | |
| 79 | 8% | 64% | |
| 80 | 10% | 56% | |
| 81 | 13% | 46% | |
| 82 | 6% | 33% | Last Result |
| 83 | 7% | 27% | |
| 84 | 2% | 20% | |
| 85 | 7% | 17% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 10% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 7% | 95% | |
| 70 | 4% | 88% | |
| 71 | 3% | 84% | |
| 72 | 4% | 82% | |
| 73 | 12% | 78% | |
| 74 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 60% | |
| 76 | 11% | 50% | |
| 77 | 9% | 39% | |
| 78 | 8% | 30% | |
| 79 | 5% | 22% | Last Result |
| 80 | 7% | 16% | |
| 81 | 3% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 6% | |
| 83 | 2% | 4% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | |
| 69 | 2% | 95% | |
| 70 | 3% | 93% | |
| 71 | 7% | 90% | |
| 72 | 9% | 83% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 75% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 67% | |
| 75 | 12% | 55% | |
| 76 | 6% | 43% | |
| 77 | 8% | 37% | |
| 78 | 7% | 29% | |
| 79 | 6% | 22% | |
| 80 | 7% | 16% | |
| 81 | 3% | 9% | |
| 82 | 3% | 6% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 3% | 93% | |
| 67 | 11% | 90% | |
| 68 | 5% | 79% | |
| 69 | 8% | 74% | |
| 70 | 4% | 66% | |
| 71 | 10% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 72 | 11% | 52% | |
| 73 | 8% | 41% | |
| 74 | 4% | 33% | |
| 75 | 6% | 29% | |
| 76 | 6% | 23% | |
| 77 | 3% | 17% | |
| 78 | 7% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 7% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 7% | 91% | |
| 68 | 3% | 84% | |
| 69 | 5% | 81% | |
| 70 | 10% | 76% | |
| 71 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 72 | 11% | 59% | |
| 73 | 11% | 49% | |
| 74 | 13% | 38% | |
| 75 | 5% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 20% | Last Result |
| 77 | 5% | 13% | |
| 78 | 5% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 96% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 4% | 90% | |
| 63 | 5% | 86% | |
| 64 | 7% | 82% | |
| 65 | 12% | 74% | |
| 66 | 8% | 62% | |
| 67 | 6% | 54% | |
| 68 | 8% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 69 | 8% | 40% | |
| 70 | 10% | 32% | |
| 71 | 7% | 22% | |
| 72 | 4% | 15% | |
| 73 | 3% | 11% | |
| 74 | 4% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 3% | 94% | |
| 59 | 7% | 92% | |
| 60 | 5% | 84% | |
| 61 | 7% | 79% | |
| 62 | 7% | 72% | |
| 63 | 12% | 66% | |
| 64 | 10% | 53% | |
| 65 | 8% | 44% | Last Result, Median |
| 66 | 5% | 36% | |
| 67 | 10% | 30% | |
| 68 | 6% | 20% | |
| 69 | 6% | 14% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 6% | 91% | |
| 60 | 11% | 84% | |
| 61 | 12% | 74% | Last Result |
| 62 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 63 | 9% | 44% | |
| 64 | 7% | 35% | |
| 65 | 8% | 28% | |
| 66 | 5% | 20% | |
| 67 | 4% | 15% | |
| 68 | 7% | 12% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 6% | 94% | |
| 53 | 7% | 88% | |
| 54 | 15% | 81% | |
| 55 | 5% | 67% | |
| 56 | 5% | 61% | |
| 57 | 12% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 6% | 44% | |
| 59 | 11% | 38% | |
| 60 | 10% | 28% | |
| 61 | 4% | 18% | |
| 62 | 5% | 13% | |
| 63 | 2% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 3% | 96% | |
| 41 | 3% | 94% | |
| 42 | 7% | 90% | |
| 43 | 7% | 84% | |
| 44 | 7% | 76% | |
| 45 | 13% | 70% | |
| 46 | 9% | 57% | |
| 47 | 12% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 48 | 6% | 36% | |
| 49 | 12% | 30% | |
| 50 | 7% | 18% | |
| 51 | 4% | 11% | |
| 52 | 2% | 7% | |
| 53 | 3% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 2% | 94% | |
| 30 | 5% | 93% | |
| 31 | 7% | 88% | |
| 32 | 5% | 81% | |
| 33 | 8% | 76% | |
| 34 | 8% | 68% | |
| 35 | 10% | 60% | |
| 36 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 37 | 7% | 39% | |
| 38 | 7% | 32% | |
| 39 | 5% | 25% | Last Result |
| 40 | 7% | 20% | |
| 41 | 7% | 13% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 3 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 830
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%