Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 3 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 25.5% 23.7–27.6% 23.1–28.1% 22.7–28.6% 21.8–29.6%
Høyre 20.4% 20.5% 18.8–22.4% 18.3–22.9% 17.9–23.4% 17.1–24.3%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.1% 11.7–14.8% 11.3–15.2% 11.0–15.6% 10.4–16.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.0% 10.7–13.6% 10.3–14.1% 10.0–14.4% 9.4–15.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.3–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Rødt 4.7% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.3–7.2%
Venstre 4.6% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.9–6.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.1–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 46 43–51 43–52 41–53 40–56
Høyre 36 36 33–40 32–40 31–42 29–44
Senterpartiet 28 25 21–29 20–30 19–31 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 21 18–24 17–25 17–26 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 13–18 13–20 12–20 11–21
Rødt 8 8 1–11 1–11 1–12 1–13
Venstre 8 8 3–10 3–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.6%  
42 2% 97%  
43 8% 95%  
44 11% 87%  
45 13% 76%  
46 13% 63% Median
47 12% 50%  
48 7% 37% Last Result
49 13% 31%  
50 5% 18%  
51 6% 14%  
52 4% 8%  
53 1.5% 4%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.9% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 1.2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 15% 93%  
34 14% 78%  
35 7% 64%  
36 11% 57% Last Result, Median
37 13% 46%  
38 10% 32%  
39 11% 23%  
40 7% 12%  
41 2% 5%  
42 0.8% 3%  
43 1.5% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 2% 98.8%  
20 2% 97%  
21 7% 95%  
22 11% 88%  
23 10% 77%  
24 7% 67%  
25 11% 60% Median
26 12% 48%  
27 8% 36%  
28 7% 28% Last Result
29 14% 22%  
30 4% 8%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.5% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.8%  
17 6% 98.6%  
18 4% 93%  
19 10% 89%  
20 22% 79%  
21 29% 57% Last Result, Median
22 7% 28%  
23 6% 21%  
24 6% 15%  
25 5% 9%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.7%  
12 3% 98%  
13 8% 96% Last Result
14 13% 88%  
15 17% 75%  
16 22% 58% Median
17 17% 36%  
18 9% 19%  
19 5% 10%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100%  
2 0.5% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 1.1% 89%  
7 9% 88%  
8 30% 79% Last Result, Median
9 23% 48%  
10 13% 25%  
11 9% 12%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 17% 95%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 2% 78%  
7 21% 76%  
8 27% 55% Last Result, Median
9 17% 28%  
10 9% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100%  
2 20% 92%  
3 32% 72% Last Result, Median
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 4% 41%  
7 10% 36%  
8 22% 26%  
9 3% 4%  
10 1.3% 1.5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 8% 98.9%  
2 40% 91%  
3 34% 51% Last Result, Median
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 1.1% 17%  
7 10% 16%  
8 5% 6%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 101 100% 95–105 93–107 92–109 89–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 96 99.6% 90–102 89–102 87–104 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 96 99.5% 90–101 88–102 86–104 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 93 96% 87–98 85–99 84–101 81–103
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 93 98% 87–98 87–99 85–100 81–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 88 79% 82–93 82–94 80–95 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 80 17% 73–85 72–87 71–89 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 76 1.1% 69–80 68–82 67–84 65–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 1.4% 71–80 69–82 68–83 65–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 72 0.2% 66–78 65–79 63–80 61–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 72 0% 67–77 66–78 64–79 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 67 0% 61–73 60–74 59–75 57–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 64 0% 59–69 57–71 56–73 55–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 62 0% 59–68 58–68 57–70 54–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 57 0% 52–62 51–64 50–65 48–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 46 0% 42–51 40–53 39–54 37–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 35 0% 30–41 28–42 27–44 25–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.6% 99.4%  
91 0.6% 98.8%  
92 2% 98%  
93 1.3% 96%  
94 3% 94%  
95 5% 92%  
96 4% 87%  
97 4% 83%  
98 8% 79% Median
99 11% 71%  
100 8% 60% Last Result
101 11% 52%  
102 5% 41%  
103 8% 35%  
104 12% 27%  
105 7% 16%  
106 3% 9%  
107 2% 6%  
108 1.3% 4%  
109 1.1% 3%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.5% 99.6% Majority
86 0.5% 99.1%  
87 1.2% 98.6%  
88 1.3% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 5% 94%  
91 8% 89%  
92 4% 81%  
93 7% 77%  
94 6% 70%  
95 7% 64% Median
96 10% 57%  
97 10% 47% Last Result
98 10% 37%  
99 4% 27%  
100 7% 23%  
101 5% 17%  
102 7% 11%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 1.2% 3%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.8% 0.9%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.5% 99.5% Majority
86 2% 99.0%  
87 1.0% 97%  
88 3% 96%  
89 2% 93%  
90 3% 91%  
91 3% 88%  
92 7% 85%  
93 4% 78% Median
94 8% 74%  
95 13% 66% Last Result
96 12% 53%  
97 7% 41%  
98 10% 34%  
99 5% 24%  
100 4% 19%  
101 8% 15%  
102 3% 7%  
103 1.1% 4%  
104 2% 3%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 0.4% 99.4%  
83 0.6% 99.0%  
84 3% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 4% 94%  
87 5% 90%  
88 4% 86%  
89 3% 82%  
90 8% 78% Median
91 7% 70%  
92 8% 63% Last Result
93 12% 55%  
94 13% 43%  
95 7% 30%  
96 7% 23%  
97 3% 17%  
98 7% 13%  
99 2% 6%  
100 1.3% 4%  
101 0.8% 3%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.7% 0.9%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.6%  
82 0.6% 99.1%  
83 0.3% 98%  
84 0.7% 98%  
85 0.8% 98% Majority
86 1.2% 97%  
87 8% 95%  
88 4% 87%  
89 9% 83%  
90 6% 74%  
91 9% 68%  
92 9% 59%  
93 6% 50% Median
94 10% 44%  
95 11% 34%  
96 6% 24% Last Result
97 7% 18%  
98 5% 11%  
99 2% 6%  
100 1.0% 3%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.3% 1.4%  
103 0.7% 1.1%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 1.3% 99.2%  
80 1.1% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 6% 95%  
83 5% 89%  
84 5% 85%  
85 6% 79% Majority
86 7% 73%  
87 11% 66% Median
88 7% 55%  
89 9% 48% Last Result
90 14% 39%  
91 9% 25%  
92 4% 16%  
93 3% 12%  
94 5% 9%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.9%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.7% 99.4%  
70 0.9% 98.7%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 96%  
73 2% 92%  
74 3% 90%  
75 2% 87%  
76 6% 84%  
77 5% 78% Median
78 9% 73%  
79 8% 64%  
80 10% 56%  
81 13% 46%  
82 6% 33% Last Result
83 7% 27%  
84 2% 20%  
85 7% 17% Majority
86 3% 10%  
87 3% 7%  
88 1.1% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.3%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.3%  
67 1.4% 98.6%  
68 2% 97%  
69 7% 95%  
70 4% 88%  
71 3% 84%  
72 4% 82%  
73 12% 78%  
74 6% 66% Median
75 10% 60%  
76 11% 50%  
77 9% 39%  
78 8% 30%  
79 5% 22% Last Result
80 7% 16%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.5% 1.1% Majority
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.3%  
67 0.6% 98%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 7% 90%  
72 9% 83% Last Result
73 8% 75% Median
74 12% 67%  
75 12% 55%  
76 6% 43%  
77 8% 37%  
78 7% 29%  
79 6% 22%  
80 7% 16%  
81 3% 9%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.1% 3%  
84 0.3% 2%  
85 0.3% 1.4% Majority
86 0.2% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.4% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 1.2% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 98.6%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 1.3% 97%  
65 3% 96%  
66 3% 93%  
67 11% 90%  
68 5% 79%  
69 8% 74%  
70 4% 66%  
71 10% 62% Last Result, Median
72 11% 52%  
73 8% 41%  
74 4% 33%  
75 6% 29%  
76 6% 23%  
77 3% 17%  
78 7% 14%  
79 4% 7%  
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.1% 0.6%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 4% 96%  
67 7% 91%  
68 3% 84%  
69 5% 81%  
70 10% 76%  
71 6% 66% Median
72 11% 59%  
73 11% 49%  
74 13% 38%  
75 5% 25%  
76 7% 20% Last Result
77 5% 13%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.1%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.8% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.7%  
60 2% 96%  
61 5% 95%  
62 4% 90%  
63 5% 86%  
64 7% 82%  
65 12% 74%  
66 8% 62%  
67 6% 54%  
68 8% 48% Last Result, Median
69 8% 40%  
70 10% 32%  
71 7% 22%  
72 4% 15%  
73 3% 11%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 3% 97%  
58 3% 94%  
59 7% 92%  
60 5% 84%  
61 7% 79%  
62 7% 72%  
63 12% 66%  
64 10% 53%  
65 8% 44% Last Result, Median
66 5% 36%  
67 10% 30%  
68 6% 20%  
69 6% 14%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.5% 3%  
74 0.5% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 1.4% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 5% 95%  
59 6% 91%  
60 11% 84%  
61 12% 74% Last Result
62 18% 62% Median
63 9% 44%  
64 7% 35%  
65 8% 28%  
66 5% 20%  
67 4% 15%  
68 7% 12%  
69 1.4% 5%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 1.5% 99.4%  
50 1.4% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 6% 94%  
53 7% 88%  
54 15% 81%  
55 5% 67%  
56 5% 61%  
57 12% 56% Last Result, Median
58 6% 44%  
59 11% 38%  
60 10% 28%  
61 4% 18%  
62 5% 13%  
63 2% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 0.9% 99.3%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 3% 94%  
42 7% 90%  
43 7% 84%  
44 7% 76%  
45 13% 70%  
46 9% 57%  
47 12% 48% Last Result, Median
48 6% 36%  
49 12% 30%  
50 7% 18%  
51 4% 11%  
52 2% 7%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 2% 97%  
29 2% 94%  
30 5% 93%  
31 7% 88%  
32 5% 81%  
33 8% 76%  
34 8% 68%  
35 10% 60%  
36 11% 50% Median
37 7% 39%  
38 7% 32%  
39 5% 25% Last Result
40 7% 20%  
41 7% 13%  
42 1.5% 6%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.0% 3%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.7% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations