Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 5–6 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 26.0% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Høyre 20.4% 20.6% 19.1–22.4% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.3% 17.5–24.1%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.7% 12.3–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–15.9% 11.1–16.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.6% 10.3–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Rødt 4.7% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Venstre 4.6% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 47 44–50 43–52 42–54 40–56
Høyre 36 36 32–39 32–41 31–42 30–43
Senterpartiet 28 27 22–31 21–32 21–32 19–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 18–23 17–24 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 11–21
Rødt 8 8 1–10 1–10 1–11 1–12
Venstre 8 7 3–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.4%  
42 3% 98.7%  
43 2% 95%  
44 11% 94%  
45 8% 83%  
46 12% 75%  
47 16% 63% Median
48 15% 47% Last Result
49 12% 32%  
50 11% 20%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 3% 98.7%  
32 8% 96%  
33 9% 88%  
34 10% 79%  
35 17% 68%  
36 12% 52% Last Result, Median
37 12% 40%  
38 11% 28%  
39 7% 17%  
40 4% 9%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.3% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.7%  
20 1.0% 99.0%  
21 3% 98%  
22 5% 95%  
23 4% 90%  
24 6% 85%  
25 12% 80%  
26 8% 68%  
27 11% 59% Median
28 16% 48% Last Result
29 16% 33%  
30 4% 16%  
31 5% 12%  
32 7% 7%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 16% 92%  
19 19% 76%  
20 18% 57% Median
21 12% 39% Last Result
22 15% 27%  
23 6% 12%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.7%  
12 3% 98.8%  
13 8% 96% Last Result
14 8% 88%  
15 23% 80%  
16 22% 56% Median
17 18% 35%  
18 8% 17%  
19 6% 9%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 13% 100%  
2 0.7% 87%  
3 0% 86%  
4 0% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0.1% 86%  
7 15% 86%  
8 39% 71% Last Result, Median
9 19% 33%  
10 10% 13%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 30% 95%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0.5% 65%  
7 20% 65% Median
8 24% 44% Last Result
9 15% 20%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 9% 99.3%  
3 28% 90% Last Result
4 0% 61%  
5 0% 61%  
6 0.6% 61%  
7 21% 61% Median
8 26% 40%  
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 13% 100%  
2 34% 87%  
3 33% 53% Last Result, Median
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 2% 20%  
7 12% 19%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 101 100% 96–105 94–106 93–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 100 100% 94–104 92–106 91–107 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 98 99.9% 93–101 91–103 90–104 87–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 95 99.6% 90–100 89–102 87–103 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 94 98.9% 88–98 87–99 86–101 83–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 90 95% 86–94 85–95 83–96 80–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 83 40% 78–89 76–90 75–92 72–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 80 18% 75–85 73–86 72–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.3% 69–78 67–80 66–82 63–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 75 0% 70–78 69–79 67–80 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 71 0.1% 67–76 66–78 65–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 68 0% 64–73 63–75 61–75 59–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 62 0% 58–68 56–69 55–71 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 63 0% 59–67 58–69 57–70 56–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 56 0% 51–60 50–62 50–64 48–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 48 0% 43–52 43–54 41–55 39–57
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 39 0% 33–44 31–46 30–47 28–49

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 99.2%  
93 1.2% 98%  
94 3% 97%  
95 2% 94%  
96 4% 91%  
97 10% 87%  
98 5% 77%  
99 9% 72%  
100 9% 63% Last Result
101 6% 54% Median
102 8% 48%  
103 17% 40%  
104 10% 23%  
105 4% 13%  
106 4% 9%  
107 2% 4%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.5% 1.0%  
110 0.3% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.6%  
89 0.6% 99.5%  
90 0.6% 98.8%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 97%  
93 4% 94%  
94 3% 90%  
95 5% 87% Last Result
96 5% 82%  
97 10% 77%  
98 10% 67%  
99 6% 56%  
100 11% 50% Median
101 7% 39%  
102 6% 32%  
103 13% 26%  
104 3% 12%  
105 3% 9%  
106 3% 6%  
107 2% 3%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.1% 0.5%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.8% 99.3%  
89 0.9% 98.5%  
90 1.3% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 3% 94%  
93 3% 91%  
94 6% 88%  
95 10% 82%  
96 14% 72%  
97 8% 58% Last Result
98 9% 50% Median
99 6% 42%  
100 12% 35%  
101 15% 24%  
102 4% 9%  
103 3% 5%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.6% Majority
86 1.0% 99.4%  
87 1.2% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 95%  
90 4% 93%  
91 5% 90%  
92 8% 85%  
93 10% 77%  
94 15% 66%  
95 9% 51%  
96 9% 42% Last Result
97 9% 33% Median
98 8% 24%  
99 4% 16%  
100 3% 12%  
101 3% 9%  
102 3% 6%  
103 1.2% 3%  
104 1.3% 2%  
105 0.1% 0.8%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.3% 0.3%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.4%  
85 0.8% 98.9% Majority
86 1.2% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 6% 95%  
89 5% 89%  
90 7% 84%  
91 7% 76%  
92 8% 69% Last Result
93 8% 61% Median
94 13% 53%  
95 10% 40%  
96 14% 30%  
97 4% 16%  
98 4% 12%  
99 3% 7%  
100 1.4% 4%  
101 1.1% 3%  
102 0.5% 1.5%  
103 0.2% 0.9%  
104 0.6% 0.8%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.4%  
82 0.9% 98.8%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 1.3% 97%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 12% 87%  
88 11% 75%  
89 5% 64% Last Result
90 9% 59% Median
91 9% 49%  
92 12% 40%  
93 18% 28%  
94 5% 11%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.4%  
99 0.2% 0.8%  
100 0% 0.6%  
101 0.6% 0.6%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.7% 99.2%  
74 0.4% 98.5%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 3% 94%  
78 3% 91%  
79 6% 88%  
80 9% 82%  
81 5% 73%  
82 9% 68% Last Result
83 11% 59%  
84 7% 48% Median
85 5% 40% Majority
86 11% 35%  
87 3% 24%  
88 10% 21%  
89 4% 11%  
90 4% 7%  
91 1.1% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.8%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 95%  
75 4% 91%  
76 5% 87%  
77 8% 83%  
78 7% 75%  
79 10% 67% Last Result
80 11% 57%  
81 10% 46% Median
82 5% 36%  
83 10% 32%  
84 4% 22%  
85 8% 18% Majority
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.3% 99.3%  
65 1.2% 99.0%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 3% 93%  
69 3% 90%  
70 4% 87%  
71 8% 83%  
72 10% 75% Last Result
73 9% 65%  
74 9% 56% Median
75 15% 47%  
76 10% 32%  
77 8% 22%  
78 5% 14%  
79 3% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.1% 3%  
83 1.0% 1.5%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.7% 99.0%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 6% 93%  
71 6% 87%  
72 13% 81%  
73 10% 69%  
74 8% 58% Median
75 11% 51%  
76 15% 40% Last Result
77 9% 26%  
78 10% 17%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.5% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.0%  
65 1.2% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 5% 94%  
68 15% 90%  
69 12% 75%  
70 6% 63%  
71 9% 57% Last Result
72 8% 48%  
73 14% 40% Median
74 10% 27%  
75 6% 17%  
76 3% 11%  
77 2% 8%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.5% 99.3%  
61 2% 98.8%  
62 2% 97%  
63 5% 95%  
64 5% 91%  
65 10% 86%  
66 17% 75%  
67 8% 59%  
68 6% 50% Last Result
69 9% 44%  
70 9% 35% Median
71 5% 26%  
72 9% 21%  
73 4% 12%  
74 2% 8%  
75 3% 6%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.6%  
55 3% 99.0%  
56 2% 96%  
57 3% 95%  
58 10% 91%  
59 8% 82%  
60 7% 73%  
61 11% 66%  
62 10% 55%  
63 11% 44% Median
64 9% 34%  
65 7% 25% Last Result
66 3% 18%  
67 5% 15%  
68 3% 10%  
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.7% 1.4%  
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.7%  
57 3% 98.8%  
58 2% 96%  
59 6% 94%  
60 7% 88%  
61 13% 81% Last Result
62 10% 68%  
63 8% 57% Median
64 13% 49%  
65 19% 36%  
66 5% 17%  
67 4% 11%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.3% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.8%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 0.6% 99.0%  
50 7% 98%  
51 2% 91%  
52 7% 89%  
53 8% 82%  
54 8% 74%  
55 13% 66%  
56 10% 53% Median
57 10% 42% Last Result
58 10% 32%  
59 4% 22%  
60 9% 18%  
61 3% 10%  
62 3% 7%  
63 1.3% 4%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 1.4% 97%  
43 6% 95%  
44 9% 90%  
45 6% 81%  
46 9% 75%  
47 12% 67% Last Result
48 10% 54%  
49 6% 44%  
50 12% 38% Median
51 8% 25%  
52 7% 17%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.7%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.8% 99.7%  
29 1.0% 98.8%  
30 1.4% 98%  
31 2% 96%  
32 4% 94%  
33 4% 91%  
34 3% 86%  
35 4% 83%  
36 3% 79%  
37 7% 76%  
38 7% 69%  
39 14% 62% Last Result
40 12% 49%  
41 5% 36% Median
42 5% 31%  
43 14% 26%  
44 4% 12%  
45 1.4% 8%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations