Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 5–11 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.6–28.2% 23.1–28.6% 22.3–29.5%
Høyre 20.4% 21.5% 19.9–23.3% 19.4–23.7% 19.0–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.1% 8.6–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.1%
Rødt 4.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.5%
Venstre 4.6% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 48 44–51 43–52 42–53 41–55
Høyre 36 38 34–41 34–42 33–42 31–45
Senterpartiet 28 25 21–29 20–30 19–31 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–22 16–23 16–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 14 12–17 12–17 11–18 10–20
Rødt 8 9 7–11 7–12 7–12 1–13
Venstre 8 8 3–10 3–10 3–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.2% 99.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 97%  
44 4% 91%  
45 12% 87%  
46 10% 75%  
47 12% 65%  
48 24% 53% Last Result, Median
49 10% 29%  
50 6% 18%  
51 6% 12%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.4% 2%  
55 0.8% 1.3%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.6%  
32 0.9% 98.7%  
33 2% 98%  
34 8% 96%  
35 5% 88%  
36 9% 83% Last Result
37 22% 74%  
38 14% 52% Median
39 18% 38%  
40 7% 20%  
41 8% 13%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.3%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.6%  
19 3% 99.0%  
20 3% 96%  
21 10% 93%  
22 8% 83%  
23 11% 75%  
24 9% 65%  
25 10% 56% Median
26 15% 46%  
27 11% 31%  
28 4% 20% Last Result
29 8% 16%  
30 5% 8%  
31 1.2% 3%  
32 1.3% 1.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.7%  
15 1.3% 99.4%  
16 5% 98%  
17 16% 94%  
18 17% 78%  
19 27% 60% Median
20 15% 33%  
21 7% 18% Last Result
22 6% 11%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.9%  
11 3% 98.7%  
12 7% 96%  
13 21% 88% Last Result
14 19% 68% Median
15 18% 48%  
16 15% 30%  
17 11% 15%  
18 3% 5%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0.9% 98.8%  
7 10% 98%  
8 25% 88% Last Result
9 30% 63% Median
10 17% 33%  
11 10% 16%  
12 5% 6%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 9% 98%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 9% 89%  
7 13% 80%  
8 33% 67% Last Result, Median
9 19% 34%  
10 11% 15%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 26% 97%  
3 29% 72% Last Result, Median
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 15% 42%  
7 13% 28%  
8 10% 14%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 22% 93%  
3 27% 70% Last Result, Median
4 0% 44%  
5 0% 44%  
6 11% 44%  
7 22% 32%  
8 8% 11%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 100 100% 96–105 94–106 93–107 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 95 99.9% 91–100 89–102 88–103 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 96 99.9% 91–100 89–101 88–102 86–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 99.4% 90–98 88–99 87–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 91 96% 87–97 85–97 84–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 87 79% 82–90 81–92 80–93 78–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 81 30% 75–87 73–89 72–90 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 77 1.5% 71–82 70–83 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0.5% 71–79 70–81 68–82 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 73 0.1% 69–78 68–79 66–80 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 73 0% 67–77 66–77 65–78 63–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 69 0% 64–73 63–75 62–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 65 0% 60–68 58–70 57–72 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 61 0% 59–66 58–68 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 56 0% 52–61 51–62 50–64 48–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 49 0% 46–54 45–55 43–57 40–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 37 0% 32–42 31–43 29–45 27–47

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.7%  
92 1.4% 99.4%  
93 2% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 4% 94%  
96 4% 90%  
97 5% 86%  
98 9% 82%  
99 13% 73% Median
100 10% 59% Last Result
101 17% 49%  
102 11% 32%  
103 4% 21%  
104 6% 17%  
105 3% 10%  
106 4% 7%  
107 1.2% 3%  
108 0.9% 2%  
109 0.5% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 1.1% 99.2%  
88 2% 98%  
89 1.4% 96%  
90 3% 95%  
91 9% 92%  
92 6% 83%  
93 12% 78% Median
94 9% 66%  
95 9% 57% Last Result
96 5% 48%  
97 6% 43%  
98 5% 37%  
99 17% 32%  
100 6% 16%  
101 3% 9%  
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.5% 2%  
105 0.8% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.7% 99.4%  
88 1.3% 98.8%  
89 3% 97%  
90 3% 95%  
91 4% 92%  
92 5% 88%  
93 3% 82%  
94 6% 79%  
95 19% 73%  
96 10% 54% Median
97 11% 44% Last Result
98 14% 33%  
99 8% 19%  
100 5% 11%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.4% 4%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.7% 1.3%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.6%  
85 0.7% 99.4% Majority
86 1.2% 98.8%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 6% 90%  
91 9% 84%  
92 14% 76%  
93 5% 61% Median
94 17% 57%  
95 16% 40%  
96 5% 24% Last Result
97 8% 20%  
98 5% 12%  
99 3% 7%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.5% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.5%  
84 2% 98%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 2% 92%  
87 5% 90%  
88 8% 85%  
89 6% 77%  
90 10% 71% Median
91 12% 61%  
92 11% 48% Last Result
93 17% 37%  
94 4% 20%  
95 4% 16%  
96 2% 13%  
97 7% 10%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.8% 1.5%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 1.0% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 98.6%  
80 2% 98%  
81 4% 96%  
82 5% 92%  
83 4% 87%  
84 5% 84%  
85 12% 79% Majority
86 7% 67%  
87 15% 59% Median
88 11% 44%  
89 11% 33% Last Result
90 12% 21%  
91 4% 10%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 2% 92%  
76 4% 89%  
77 11% 86%  
78 6% 75%  
79 8% 69% Median
80 8% 61%  
81 8% 53%  
82 6% 45% Last Result
83 6% 39%  
84 3% 33%  
85 9% 30% Majority
86 11% 21%  
87 4% 10%  
88 1.4% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.9% 99.2%  
69 3% 98%  
70 2% 95%  
71 5% 93%  
72 3% 88%  
73 5% 86%  
74 12% 81%  
75 6% 69%  
76 7% 63% Median
77 9% 56%  
78 14% 47%  
79 7% 33% Last Result
80 14% 27%  
81 3% 13%  
82 4% 10%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.9% 1.5% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 2% 99.0%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 96%  
71 5% 92%  
72 8% 87% Last Result
73 4% 79%  
74 16% 75% Median
75 17% 59%  
76 5% 43%  
77 14% 38%  
78 9% 24%  
79 6% 15%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 99.4%  
66 1.2% 98.6%  
67 1.5% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 5% 94%  
70 8% 89%  
71 14% 81% Last Result, Median
72 11% 67%  
73 10% 56%  
74 19% 45%  
75 6% 26%  
76 3% 20%  
77 5% 17%  
78 4% 12%  
79 3% 7%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.4% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 0.6% 99.1%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 4% 96%  
67 4% 93%  
68 5% 89%  
69 5% 84%  
70 6% 79%  
71 11% 72%  
72 10% 61%  
73 6% 51% Median
74 17% 45%  
75 12% 27%  
76 4% 15% Last Result
77 7% 11%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.6% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 0.9% 99.2%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 4% 97%  
64 3% 93%  
65 7% 89%  
66 4% 83%  
67 11% 78%  
68 17% 68% Last Result, Median
69 10% 50%  
70 13% 40%  
71 9% 27%  
72 5% 18%  
73 4% 13%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 1.0% 99.4%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 6% 91%  
61 7% 85%  
62 15% 78%  
63 7% 63%  
64 6% 56%  
65 8% 50% Last Result, Median
66 11% 42%  
67 9% 31%  
68 12% 21%  
69 4% 10%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.1% 4%  
72 0.8% 3%  
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.5%  
56 1.3% 98.7%  
57 2% 97%  
58 5% 95%  
59 7% 90%  
60 14% 83%  
61 23% 69% Last Result
62 8% 46% Median
63 11% 37%  
64 9% 27%  
65 4% 17%  
66 5% 14%  
67 3% 8%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.2%  
50 1.3% 98.6%  
51 3% 97%  
52 6% 94%  
53 3% 88%  
54 8% 85%  
55 10% 77%  
56 19% 67%  
57 10% 48% Last Result, Median
58 7% 38%  
59 11% 30%  
60 9% 19%  
61 4% 11%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.5% 4%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.4% 1.0%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.5% 99.1%  
43 1.3% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 4% 95%  
46 5% 91%  
47 6% 86% Last Result
48 13% 80%  
49 20% 68% Median
50 9% 48%  
51 11% 38%  
52 7% 28%  
53 9% 21%  
54 4% 12%  
55 4% 8%  
56 1.2% 4%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 0.4% 99.3%  
29 2% 98.9%  
30 1.3% 97%  
31 5% 95%  
32 3% 91%  
33 6% 88%  
34 9% 82%  
35 8% 73%  
36 7% 65% Median
37 12% 58%  
38 13% 46%  
39 5% 33% Last Result
40 13% 28%  
41 4% 15%  
42 2% 11%  
43 4% 9%  
44 2% 5%  
45 1.4% 3%  
46 0.6% 2%  
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations