Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 13–18 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 26.7% 24.9–28.5% 24.4–29.1% 24.0–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Høyre 20.4% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4% 18.7–23.8% 18.0–24.7%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–11.9%
Venstre 4.6% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Rødt 4.7% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 49 45–54 44–55 43–56 42–57
Høyre 36 38 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–45
Senterpartiet 28 23 19–27 19–28 18–29 17–30
Fremskrittspartiet 21 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 17 14–19 13–20 13–20 12–22
Venstre 8 9 8–11 7–12 7–13 3–14
Rødt 8 8 7–10 1–11 1–11 1–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 5% 97%  
45 6% 92%  
46 10% 87%  
47 10% 76%  
48 13% 66% Last Result
49 15% 54% Median
50 7% 38%  
51 8% 31%  
52 7% 23%  
53 6% 16%  
54 5% 10%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 3% 98%  
33 3% 95%  
34 7% 92%  
35 7% 85%  
36 9% 78% Last Result
37 15% 69%  
38 15% 54% Median
39 13% 39%  
40 13% 26%  
41 6% 12%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.5%  
45 0.6% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.8%  
18 4% 98.9%  
19 8% 95%  
20 9% 87%  
21 12% 78%  
22 14% 66%  
23 12% 52% Median
24 16% 40%  
25 7% 25%  
26 4% 18%  
27 4% 13%  
28 6% 9% Last Result
29 2% 4%  
30 1.0% 1.3%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 1.2% 99.3%  
15 4% 98%  
16 12% 94%  
17 18% 82%  
18 17% 63% Median
19 20% 46%  
20 12% 27%  
21 7% 14% Last Result
22 5% 7%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 4% 98% Last Result
14 16% 94%  
15 13% 78%  
16 14% 66%  
17 19% 51% Median
18 17% 32%  
19 10% 15%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 2% 99.7%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 5% 98%  
8 15% 93% Last Result
9 30% 78% Median
10 25% 48%  
11 15% 23%  
12 6% 9%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0.4% 91%  
7 11% 91%  
8 31% 80% Last Result, Median
9 29% 49%  
10 13% 20%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.8% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 28% 88%  
3 27% 60% Last Result, Median
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 1.2% 33%  
7 12% 32%  
8 14% 19%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 9% 99.2%  
2 48% 90% Median
3 25% 42% Last Result
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 1.4% 16%  
7 10% 15%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 100 100% 96–105 93–106 92–107 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 96 99.8% 92–101 90–102 89–103 86–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 95 99.9% 91–100 90–102 88–103 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 92 98% 88–97 86–99 85–100 83–102
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 91 94% 86–96 84–98 84–100 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 88 88% 84–93 83–94 82–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 79 9% 73–84 72–86 71–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 77 5% 72–82 71–85 69–85 67–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 75 0.6% 69–80 69–82 68–83 65–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 72 0.1% 67–77 66–78 65–80 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 72 0% 67–77 66–77 65–78 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 69 0% 64–73 62–75 62–77 59–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 66 0% 61–70 59–72 58–73 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 65 0% 61–70 60–72 60–72 58–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 56 0% 51–60 50–61 49–63 47–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 50 0% 46–55 45–56 44–56 42–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 35 0% 31–41 29–42 28–43 27–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.8% 99.6%  
92 2% 98.8%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 4% 90%  
97 8% 86%  
98 9% 78%  
99 7% 69%  
100 16% 61% Last Result, Median
101 8% 46%  
102 8% 38%  
103 6% 30%  
104 9% 24%  
105 7% 16%  
106 4% 9%  
107 3% 5%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 99.2%  
88 0.5% 98.8%  
89 3% 98%  
90 1.4% 96%  
91 4% 94%  
92 4% 90%  
93 8% 86%  
94 7% 78%  
95 11% 71%  
96 10% 59%  
97 14% 50% Last Result, Median
98 8% 36%  
99 7% 27%  
100 7% 20%  
101 4% 13%  
102 4% 9%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.7%  
87 0.6% 99.5%  
88 2% 98.9%  
89 2% 97%  
90 4% 95%  
91 7% 91%  
92 5% 84%  
93 12% 79%  
94 8% 67% Median
95 16% 59% Last Result
96 8% 43%  
97 7% 35%  
98 8% 28%  
99 6% 20%  
100 4% 13%  
101 2% 9%  
102 3% 7%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.6% 1.4%  
106 0.5% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.9% 99.3%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 8% 92%  
89 7% 84%  
90 10% 77%  
91 8% 67%  
92 13% 59% Last Result, Median
93 8% 46%  
94 8% 37%  
95 10% 30%  
96 7% 20%  
97 4% 13%  
98 4% 9%  
99 3% 5%  
100 0.4% 3%  
101 1.1% 2%  
102 0.7% 1.0%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 0.2% 98.9%  
83 1.1% 98.7%  
84 4% 98%  
85 2% 94% Majority
86 3% 92%  
87 8% 89%  
88 7% 81%  
89 7% 74%  
90 9% 67% Median
91 9% 59%  
92 13% 50%  
93 8% 37%  
94 7% 28%  
95 5% 21%  
96 7% 16% Last Result
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 6%  
99 1.2% 4%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.3% 0.9%  
102 0.3% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 99.3%  
81 0.9% 98.9%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 4% 92%  
85 9% 88% Majority
86 11% 78%  
87 10% 67%  
88 8% 58%  
89 15% 50% Last Result, Median
90 8% 35%  
91 8% 27%  
92 5% 19%  
93 8% 14%  
94 4% 7%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.9% 1.5%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.9% 99.6%  
71 2% 98.7%  
72 6% 97%  
73 3% 91%  
74 3% 88%  
75 8% 85%  
76 10% 77%  
77 8% 67% Median
78 5% 59%  
79 8% 54%  
80 6% 47%  
81 11% 41%  
82 11% 30% Last Result
83 4% 19%  
84 6% 15%  
85 2% 9% Majority
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 1.0% 1.4%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 99.2%  
69 2% 98.8%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 2% 95%  
72 3% 93% Last Result
73 7% 90%  
74 6% 83%  
75 7% 77%  
76 8% 70%  
77 13% 61% Median
78 9% 48%  
79 9% 39%  
80 6% 31%  
81 7% 24%  
82 8% 17%  
83 2% 10%  
84 2% 7%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.2% 1.1%  
88 0.6% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.6%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 1.2% 99.3%  
68 3% 98%  
69 7% 95%  
70 6% 89%  
71 3% 83%  
72 6% 81%  
73 8% 74%  
74 12% 66% Median
75 12% 54%  
76 9% 41%  
77 6% 33%  
78 5% 26%  
79 11% 21% Last Result
80 3% 10%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.8% 1.4%  
85 0.1% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.9%  
66 3% 97%  
67 5% 95%  
68 4% 90%  
69 8% 86%  
70 8% 78% Median
71 8% 71% Last Result
72 14% 62%  
73 10% 48%  
74 11% 38%  
75 7% 27%  
76 7% 20%  
77 4% 13%  
78 4% 9%  
79 0.9% 5%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.4% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.4%  
64 0.7% 99.2%  
65 1.4% 98.5%  
66 4% 97%  
67 8% 93%  
68 6% 85%  
69 5% 79%  
70 5% 74%  
71 12% 68%  
72 14% 57% Median
73 8% 42%  
74 9% 35%  
75 8% 25%  
76 7% 17% Last Result
77 7% 10%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.8% 1.2%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.4%  
61 1.2% 98.9%  
62 3% 98%  
63 5% 95%  
64 8% 90%  
65 9% 83%  
66 6% 74%  
67 8% 68% Median
68 8% 60% Last Result
69 16% 52%  
70 7% 37%  
71 9% 30%  
72 8% 20%  
73 4% 13%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.0% 99.5%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 3% 94%  
61 6% 91%  
62 9% 85%  
63 10% 77%  
64 6% 67%  
65 8% 61% Last Result, Median
66 17% 53%  
67 8% 36%  
68 7% 28%  
69 9% 21%  
70 5% 12%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 6%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 1.1% 98.8%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 94% Last Result
62 8% 88%  
63 12% 80%  
64 9% 68%  
65 15% 60%  
66 10% 45% Median
67 8% 34%  
68 7% 27%  
69 7% 19%  
70 3% 12%  
71 3% 9%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 1.0% 98%  
50 4% 97%  
51 3% 92%  
52 6% 89%  
53 7% 83%  
54 8% 77%  
55 13% 69%  
56 10% 56% Median
57 12% 47% Last Result
58 15% 35%  
59 7% 20%  
60 7% 14%  
61 2% 6%  
62 0.8% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 1.2% 99.2%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 7% 93%  
47 9% 86% Last Result
48 15% 77%  
49 8% 62% Median
50 10% 54%  
51 10% 44%  
52 9% 34%  
53 8% 25%  
54 6% 17%  
55 4% 11%  
56 4% 7%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 3% 97%  
30 4% 95%  
31 6% 91%  
32 5% 85%  
33 12% 80%  
34 13% 69% Median
35 10% 55%  
36 10% 45%  
37 10% 35%  
38 5% 25%  
39 5% 20% Last Result
40 5% 15%  
41 5% 10%  
42 2% 6%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations