Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 11–19 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
Høyre 20.4% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Rødt 4.7% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Venstre 4.6% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 51 47–54 45–56 44–57 43–58
Høyre 36 37 33–41 33–42 32–43 30–44
Senterpartiet 28 23 20–28 19–29 19–30 17–31
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–22 17–22 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 13–18 12–18 12–19 10–20
Rødt 8 8 6–10 1–11 1–11 1–12
Venstre 8 8 3–10 3–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.1%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 9% 91%  
48 9% 82% Last Result
49 12% 73%  
50 10% 60%  
51 17% 51% Median
52 11% 34%  
53 8% 24%  
54 6% 16%  
55 4% 10%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.4%  
32 3% 98.6%  
33 7% 96%  
34 4% 88%  
35 6% 84%  
36 12% 78% Last Result
37 17% 66% Median
38 14% 49%  
39 17% 35%  
40 8% 18%  
41 5% 10%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.3% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.2%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 1.2% 99.4%  
19 4% 98%  
20 9% 94%  
21 7% 86%  
22 18% 78%  
23 11% 60% Median
24 10% 49%  
25 5% 39%  
26 11% 34%  
27 8% 23%  
28 6% 15% Last Result
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.0% 99.6%  
16 3% 98.6%  
17 15% 95%  
18 20% 80%  
19 15% 60% Median
20 22% 45%  
21 11% 23% Last Result
22 7% 12%  
23 3% 5%  
24 0.8% 1.4%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 2% 99.3%  
12 7% 98%  
13 14% 91% Last Result
14 17% 77%  
15 21% 60% Median
16 15% 39%  
17 12% 24%  
18 7% 12%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.8% 1.2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0.8% 91%  
7 9% 90%  
8 35% 81% Last Result, Median
9 26% 46%  
10 13% 20%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 13% 97%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0.3% 84%  
7 14% 83%  
8 38% 69% Last Result, Median
9 19% 32%  
10 10% 13%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 21% 96%  
3 27% 76% Last Result, Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 1.2% 49%  
7 14% 48%  
8 28% 33%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 33% 89%  
2 44% 56% Median
3 11% 12% Last Result
4 0% 1.4%  
5 0% 1.4%  
6 0.2% 1.4%  
7 0.9% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 102 100% 97–108 96–110 95–111 92–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 97 100% 93–103 91–104 91–105 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 96 100% 91–102 89–103 89–104 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 94 99.6% 89–100 88–102 87–103 85–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 89 92% 85–94 83–96 82–97 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 90 90% 85–94 84–95 83–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 81 21% 76–88 74–89 73–89 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 79 7% 73–84 72–85 70–86 68–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 75 0.5% 71–80 70–81 69–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 73 0.1% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 71 0% 66–76 64–77 63–78 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 66 0% 60–70 59–72 58–74 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 66 0% 61–70 60–71 60–72 58–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 64 0% 59–68 58–70 57–72 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 57 0% 52–61 50–63 50–63 48–65
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 47 0% 41–50 41–51 40–53 38–55
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 33 0% 28–38 27–39 26–40 23–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.6%  
93 0.5% 99.4%  
94 1.3% 98.9%  
95 2% 98%  
96 4% 96%  
97 3% 92%  
98 5% 89%  
99 5% 84%  
100 8% 79% Last Result, Median
101 11% 70%  
102 13% 59%  
103 9% 46%  
104 10% 38%  
105 7% 27%  
106 4% 21%  
107 4% 16%  
108 4% 12%  
109 3% 8%  
110 2% 5%  
111 3% 4%  
112 0.4% 0.7%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 0.6% 99.4%  
89 0.5% 98.9%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 3% 98%  
92 4% 95%  
93 7% 91%  
94 7% 84%  
95 9% 77%  
96 11% 68%  
97 8% 56% Last Result, Median
98 10% 48%  
99 10% 39%  
100 8% 29%  
101 6% 21%  
102 5% 15%  
103 5% 10%  
104 3% 6%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 0.9% 1.4%  
107 0.3% 0.6%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.2% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 1.3% 99.3%  
89 4% 98%  
90 2% 94%  
91 3% 91%  
92 9% 89%  
93 6% 80%  
94 11% 74% Median
95 13% 63% Last Result
96 8% 50%  
97 6% 43%  
98 10% 36%  
99 7% 26%  
100 3% 19%  
101 4% 16%  
102 3% 12%  
103 4% 8%  
104 3% 4%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.6% Majority
86 2% 99.3%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 3% 92%  
90 4% 90%  
91 9% 85%  
92 7% 76% Last Result, Median
93 18% 69%  
94 4% 51%  
95 10% 47%  
96 8% 37%  
97 6% 29%  
98 6% 23%  
99 3% 17%  
100 5% 14%  
101 2% 9%  
102 3% 7%  
103 3% 4%  
104 0.5% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 98.9%  
82 1.1% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 9% 92% Majority
86 6% 83%  
87 4% 77%  
88 8% 72%  
89 14% 64% Median
90 11% 50%  
91 14% 39%  
92 5% 25%  
93 6% 20%  
94 5% 14%  
95 2% 10%  
96 3% 7% Last Result
97 2% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.3%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.3%  
83 3% 98.8%  
84 5% 96%  
85 6% 90% Majority
86 8% 84%  
87 6% 76%  
88 13% 70%  
89 6% 57% Last Result, Median
90 16% 50%  
91 5% 34%  
92 10% 29%  
93 4% 19%  
94 6% 15%  
95 5% 9%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 1.2% 99.6%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 97%  
75 3% 93%  
76 6% 90%  
77 10% 84%  
78 9% 74%  
79 5% 66% Median
80 6% 61%  
81 7% 55%  
82 10% 48% Last Result
83 11% 37%  
84 5% 26%  
85 6% 21% Majority
86 3% 16%  
87 2% 12%  
88 4% 10%  
89 4% 6%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 0.4% 99.2%  
70 1.3% 98.8%  
71 1.3% 97%  
72 3% 96% Last Result
73 5% 93%  
74 4% 88%  
75 5% 85%  
76 8% 80%  
77 8% 72% Median
78 13% 64%  
79 10% 50%  
80 13% 41%  
81 7% 27%  
82 4% 21%  
83 4% 16%  
84 6% 12%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.5%  
89 0.5% 0.6%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.6%  
69 2% 98.8%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 94%  
72 3% 89%  
73 7% 86%  
74 11% 79%  
75 20% 68%  
76 8% 48% Median
77 9% 40%  
78 8% 31%  
79 6% 24% Last Result
80 8% 18%  
81 5% 10%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 95%  
70 5% 92%  
71 4% 87%  
72 9% 83%  
73 25% 74%  
74 7% 50% Median
75 7% 42%  
76 8% 36% Last Result
77 7% 27%  
78 9% 20%  
79 4% 12%  
80 3% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.7% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.3%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 94%  
66 8% 91%  
67 5% 82%  
68 7% 77%  
69 8% 70% Median
70 10% 62%  
71 9% 52% Last Result
72 8% 43%  
73 8% 35%  
74 9% 27%  
75 5% 18%  
76 6% 13%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.4%  
58 3% 98.7%  
59 3% 96%  
60 4% 93%  
61 4% 89%  
62 6% 85%  
63 5% 80%  
64 10% 75%  
65 11% 64%  
66 10% 53% Median
67 13% 43%  
68 11% 31% Last Result
69 7% 20%  
70 4% 12%  
71 2% 8%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.4% 4%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.7%  
59 1.2% 99.2%  
60 4% 98%  
61 7% 94% Last Result
62 9% 88%  
63 11% 78%  
64 10% 67%  
65 7% 57%  
66 10% 50% Median
67 11% 40%  
68 12% 29%  
69 4% 18%  
70 4% 13%  
71 4% 9%  
72 3% 5%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.7% 1.4%  
75 0.6% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 3% 98%  
58 4% 95%  
59 4% 91%  
60 5% 87%  
61 5% 82%  
62 8% 78%  
63 14% 69%  
64 10% 55% Median
65 13% 46% Last Result
66 6% 33%  
67 13% 27%  
68 5% 14%  
69 2% 9%  
70 3% 7%  
71 1.0% 4%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 0.8% 99.2%  
50 6% 98%  
51 2% 93%  
52 3% 90%  
53 5% 88%  
54 9% 83%  
55 10% 74%  
56 12% 63% Median
57 15% 51% Last Result
58 7% 35%  
59 8% 28%  
60 7% 20%  
61 6% 13%  
62 2% 8%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 1.3% 99.0%  
40 0.9% 98%  
41 7% 97%  
42 5% 90%  
43 5% 84%  
44 5% 79%  
45 6% 74%  
46 11% 67%  
47 18% 56% Last Result, Median
48 14% 38%  
49 6% 25%  
50 11% 19%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.3% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.1%  
25 0.4% 98.7%  
26 3% 98%  
27 2% 96%  
28 5% 94%  
29 4% 89%  
30 10% 85%  
31 11% 75%  
32 10% 63%  
33 10% 53% Median
34 9% 44%  
35 10% 35%  
36 9% 25%  
37 5% 16%  
38 3% 12%  
39 4% 8% Last Result
40 3% 4%  
41 0.7% 1.3%  
42 0.4% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations