Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 19–24 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.5% 25.3–31.0% 24.4–31.9%
Høyre 20.4% 21.1% 19.5–22.9% 19.0–23.4% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.7%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.2% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.6%
Venstre 4.6% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Rødt 4.7% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 51 47–55 46–56 45–57 44–59
Høyre 36 37 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–45
Senterpartiet 28 25 21–29 20–30 20–30 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 17–22 17–23 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 14–18 13–19 12–19 12–21
Venstre 8 8 3–10 3–11 3–11 2–12
Rødt 8 9 1–10 1–11 1–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–3 1–7 0–8 0–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 1.2% 99.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 6% 94%  
48 5% 88% Last Result
49 13% 83%  
50 12% 70%  
51 18% 58% Median
52 14% 40%  
53 10% 26%  
54 4% 17%  
55 6% 12%  
56 3% 7%  
57 1.2% 4%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.4% 99.6%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 96%  
34 5% 91%  
35 9% 85%  
36 14% 76% Last Result
37 14% 62% Median
38 11% 48%  
39 18% 37%  
40 6% 19%  
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.4% 1.4%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.8%  
19 1.0% 98.9%  
20 5% 98%  
21 11% 93%  
22 8% 82%  
23 11% 74%  
24 9% 62%  
25 10% 53% Median
26 10% 43%  
27 9% 33%  
28 12% 24% Last Result
29 6% 12%  
30 4% 6%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.9% 99.7%  
16 2% 98.8%  
17 10% 97%  
18 18% 86%  
19 11% 68%  
20 28% 57% Median
21 11% 30% Last Result
22 9% 18%  
23 7% 9%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 6% 97% Last Result
14 13% 91%  
15 23% 78%  
16 24% 55% Median
17 16% 31%  
18 8% 15%  
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.3% 100%  
3 11% 98.7%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 10% 88%  
8 33% 78% Last Result, Median
9 24% 45%  
10 15% 21%  
11 5% 6%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 0.1% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 14% 88%  
8 24% 74% Last Result
9 32% 50% Median
10 12% 18%  
11 5% 6%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 24% 97%  
2 40% 73% Median
3 26% 33% Last Result
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.1% 6%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 37% 100%  
2 38% 63% Median
3 14% 25% Last Result
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.3% 11%  
7 7% 10%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 102 100% 97–107 96–108 94–110 92–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 100 100% 95–104 93–105 92–106 90–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 96 100% 91–101 91–103 89–104 88–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 94 99.6% 89–99 88–101 87–101 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 92 98% 87–96 86–98 85–99 83–100
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 98% 87–97 85–98 85–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 80 15% 76–86 74–87 73–88 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 78 6% 74–83 72–85 71–86 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 77 2% 72–82 71–84 70–84 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 76 0.2% 72–80 70–81 69–83 67–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 69 0% 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 67 0% 62–72 61–73 59–75 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 66 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 65 0% 60–69 59–71 57–72 56–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 57 0% 52–61 51–63 50–64 49–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 48 0% 44–51 42–53 40–54 39–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 35 0% 30–40 29–41 28–43 26–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.0%  
94 2% 98.6%  
95 2% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 3% 93%  
98 14% 90%  
99 5% 75%  
100 9% 71% Last Result
101 11% 62%  
102 9% 51%  
103 11% 42% Median
104 9% 31%  
105 8% 22%  
106 4% 14%  
107 4% 10%  
108 2% 6%  
109 2% 4%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.8% 99.6%  
91 0.8% 98.7%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 3% 97%  
94 2% 94%  
95 5% 92%  
96 13% 87%  
97 6% 74% Last Result
98 5% 67%  
99 12% 62%  
100 13% 50%  
101 6% 37% Median
102 13% 32%  
103 8% 18%  
104 3% 11%  
105 2% 7%  
106 3% 5%  
107 0.9% 2%  
108 0.6% 0.7%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.8% 99.7%  
89 1.5% 98.9%  
90 2% 97%  
91 9% 96%  
92 6% 86%  
93 9% 81%  
94 5% 72%  
95 11% 67% Last Result
96 12% 56% Median
97 7% 44%  
98 7% 36%  
99 10% 30%  
100 6% 20%  
101 4% 14%  
102 3% 10%  
103 4% 7%  
104 1.4% 3%  
105 0.4% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.9%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.6% Majority
86 0.7% 99.2%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 9% 94%  
90 7% 86%  
91 8% 79%  
92 7% 71% Last Result
93 11% 63%  
94 10% 52% Median
95 7% 41%  
96 9% 34%  
97 5% 25%  
98 9% 20%  
99 3% 11%  
100 2% 8%  
101 5% 6%  
102 1.0% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.8% 99.6%  
84 0.8% 98.8%  
85 1.3% 98% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 10% 94%  
88 4% 84%  
89 12% 80% Last Result
90 6% 68%  
91 11% 62%  
92 8% 51% Median
93 13% 42%  
94 10% 30%  
95 6% 20%  
96 5% 13%  
97 3% 9%  
98 1.5% 5%  
99 3% 4%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.6% 99.4%  
84 1.0% 98.8%  
85 3% 98% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 3% 93%  
88 6% 89%  
89 4% 83%  
90 11% 80%  
91 13% 69%  
92 12% 56% Median
93 6% 44%  
94 10% 38%  
95 7% 27%  
96 7% 20% Last Result
97 8% 14%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.3% 3%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.4%  
102 0.6% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.1%  
73 1.4% 98.7%  
74 3% 97%  
75 3% 94%  
76 8% 92%  
77 9% 83%  
78 7% 74%  
79 8% 66%  
80 11% 58% Median
81 6% 47%  
82 11% 41% Last Result
83 9% 30%  
84 5% 21%  
85 4% 15% Majority
86 2% 11%  
87 5% 9%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 1.1% 99.3%  
71 1.3% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 3% 94%  
74 8% 91%  
75 8% 83%  
76 9% 75%  
77 8% 66%  
78 12% 58% Median
79 9% 46% Last Result
80 14% 37%  
81 9% 23%  
82 4% 14%  
83 3% 11%  
84 1.5% 7%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.7%  
68 0.5% 99.1%  
69 0.6% 98.6%  
70 1.3% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 8% 94% Last Result
73 7% 86%  
74 7% 80%  
75 10% 73%  
76 6% 62%  
77 12% 56%  
78 13% 44% Median
79 11% 31%  
80 4% 20%  
81 6% 17%  
82 3% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 1.0% 99.0%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 93%  
72 8% 91%  
73 9% 83%  
74 9% 73%  
75 10% 64%  
76 9% 54% Last Result, Median
77 15% 45%  
78 7% 30%  
79 8% 23%  
80 8% 15%  
81 2% 7%  
82 1.2% 5%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.3%  
63 3% 98%  
64 2% 95%  
65 3% 93%  
66 8% 89%  
67 13% 82%  
68 6% 68%  
69 13% 63% Median
70 12% 50%  
71 5% 38% Last Result
72 6% 33%  
73 13% 26%  
74 5% 13%  
75 2% 8%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.8% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 2% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 4% 94%  
63 4% 90%  
64 8% 86%  
65 9% 78%  
66 11% 69%  
67 9% 58% Median
68 11% 49% Last Result
69 9% 38%  
70 5% 29%  
71 14% 25%  
72 3% 10%  
73 2% 7%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 1.4%  
77 0.7% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.7%  
60 1.1% 99.0%  
61 2% 98% Last Result
62 4% 96%  
63 10% 92%  
64 8% 82%  
65 11% 74%  
66 15% 64%  
67 8% 49% Median
68 11% 41%  
69 11% 30%  
70 6% 18%  
71 4% 12%  
72 3% 8%  
73 3% 5%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.3%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 4% 92%  
61 6% 88%  
62 6% 82%  
63 9% 77%  
64 10% 67%  
65 16% 58% Last Result, Median
66 9% 42%  
67 6% 33%  
68 6% 28%  
69 13% 22%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.4% 4%  
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.7%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 4% 93%  
53 4% 90%  
54 6% 86%  
55 10% 80%  
56 16% 70%  
57 10% 54% Last Result, Median
58 12% 44%  
59 11% 32%  
60 6% 21%  
61 6% 16%  
62 4% 10%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.3% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.8%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 3% 99.4%  
41 2% 97%  
42 3% 95%  
43 3% 93%  
44 9% 90%  
45 7% 81%  
46 8% 74%  
47 13% 66% Last Result, Median
48 13% 53%  
49 10% 40%  
50 8% 31%  
51 14% 23%  
52 2% 9%  
53 2% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.5%  
27 0.8% 99.2%  
28 2% 98%  
29 3% 97%  
30 4% 94%  
31 5% 90%  
32 5% 85%  
33 14% 79%  
34 10% 65%  
35 9% 55% Median
36 11% 46%  
37 8% 35%  
38 11% 27%  
39 3% 16% Last Result
40 8% 14%  
41 1.3% 6%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.4% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations