Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 26–31 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 26.8% 25.0–28.7% 24.5–29.3% 24.1–29.7% 23.3–30.7%
Høyre 20.4% 21.2% 19.5–23.0% 19.1–23.5% 18.7–23.9% 17.9–24.8%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 14.0% 12.7–15.6% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.4% 11.4–17.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 9.7% 8.6–11.1% 8.3–11.5% 8.0–11.8% 7.5–12.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.1–10.7%
Rødt 4.7% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.2–8.1%
Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 48 45–52 44–53 43–55 42–57
Høyre 36 37 33–40 33–41 32–43 30–44
Senterpartiet 28 28 23–31 22–32 21–32 20–33
Fremskrittspartiet 21 17 15–19 14–20 14–20 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Rødt 8 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 7–14
Venstre 8 8 3–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 2–9 2–9 2–9 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–3 1–6 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 98.5%  
44 3% 97%  
45 6% 95%  
46 13% 89%  
47 10% 76%  
48 19% 66% Last Result, Median
49 19% 47%  
50 8% 28%  
51 9% 19%  
52 5% 11%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.0% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.4% 1.1%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 95%  
34 4% 89%  
35 13% 85%  
36 10% 71% Last Result
37 14% 62% Median
38 20% 48%  
39 17% 28%  
40 4% 10%  
41 2% 7%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.4% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 2% 98.9%  
22 4% 96%  
23 5% 93%  
24 6% 88%  
25 8% 81%  
26 4% 73%  
27 8% 69%  
28 24% 61% Last Result, Median
29 14% 37%  
30 11% 23%  
31 6% 12%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.8% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.8%  
13 1.4% 99.0%  
14 3% 98%  
15 13% 95%  
16 19% 82%  
17 20% 63% Median
18 22% 43%  
19 14% 20%  
20 4% 7%  
21 1.3% 2% Last Result
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.9%  
11 6% 99.0%  
12 11% 93%  
13 21% 83% Last Result
14 20% 62% Median
15 19% 42%  
16 15% 23%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 1.1% 1.3%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 2% 99.7%  
8 6% 98% Last Result
9 24% 92%  
10 34% 68% Median
11 14% 34%  
12 11% 19%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.8% 1.1%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 17% 94%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0.3% 78%  
7 18% 77%  
8 37% 60% Last Result, Median
9 19% 23%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 13% 98.7%  
3 27% 86% Last Result
4 0% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 1.1% 59%  
7 26% 57% Median
8 21% 32%  
9 9% 11%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 23% 96%  
2 45% 73% Median
3 23% 28% Last Result
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.6% 6%  
7 4% 5%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 105 100% 102–110 100–111 99–113 98–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 100 100% 96–104 95–105 94–106 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 97 100% 94–103 92–103 91–105 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 95 99.9% 92–100 90–101 89–102 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 90 97% 85–94 85–95 84–96 81–97
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 91 95% 86–95 84–96 83–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 83 40% 79–89 78–90 76–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 78 5% 74–83 73–85 73–86 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 78 2% 74–82 73–84 72–84 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 76 0.2% 71–79 70–81 69–81 67–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–74 60–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 63 0% 59–67 57–68 56–70 54–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 62 0% 59–67 58–67 57–69 56–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 61 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 51–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 54 0% 50–58 49–59 48–61 46–62
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 46 0% 42–50 41–51 39–52 37–54
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 37 0% 31–41 30–42 29–43 26–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 2% 99.6%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 2% 97% Last Result
101 3% 95%  
102 6% 92%  
103 16% 86%  
104 7% 70%  
105 13% 62%  
106 10% 50%  
107 10% 40% Median
108 6% 30%  
109 9% 24%  
110 7% 14%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 5%  
113 1.3% 3%  
114 0.7% 1.2%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.2% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.4% 99.9%  
92 0.5% 99.5%  
93 0.8% 98.9%  
94 0.8% 98%  
95 6% 97%  
96 6% 91%  
97 7% 85% Last Result
98 9% 78%  
99 12% 69%  
100 12% 57% Median
101 10% 45%  
102 12% 36%  
103 8% 24%  
104 7% 16%  
105 4% 9%  
106 3% 5%  
107 1.0% 2%  
108 0.7% 1.2%  
109 0.3% 0.6%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.5% 99.7%  
90 2% 99.2%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 3% 97%  
93 2% 94%  
94 4% 93%  
95 17% 89% Last Result
96 15% 72%  
97 7% 57%  
98 11% 49%  
99 9% 38% Median
100 6% 29%  
101 9% 24%  
102 5% 15%  
103 6% 11%  
104 2% 5%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.5% 1.4%  
107 0.6% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.8% 99.7%  
88 1.3% 98.9%  
89 1.3% 98%  
90 1.4% 96%  
91 4% 95%  
92 5% 91% Last Result
93 19% 86%  
94 10% 68%  
95 9% 57%  
96 13% 48%  
97 7% 35% Median
98 6% 28%  
99 5% 23%  
100 10% 18%  
101 4% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.6% 99.5%  
83 0.5% 98.8%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 8% 97% Majority
86 5% 90%  
87 7% 84%  
88 9% 78%  
89 8% 69% Last Result
90 19% 61% Median
91 11% 42%  
92 9% 31%  
93 11% 22%  
94 6% 11%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.0% 1.5%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.3%  
82 0.8% 99.1%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 5% 92%  
87 5% 87%  
88 8% 82%  
89 7% 75%  
90 17% 68%  
91 12% 51%  
92 9% 39% Median
93 7% 30%  
94 11% 23%  
95 6% 12%  
96 4% 6% Last Result
97 0.7% 2%  
98 1.1% 1.4%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.8% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 98.8%  
76 1.0% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 6% 92%  
80 4% 86%  
81 10% 82%  
82 16% 72% Last Result
83 11% 56%  
84 6% 45%  
85 7% 40% Median, Majority
86 5% 32%  
87 13% 27%  
88 4% 15%  
89 4% 11%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.7% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 1.1% 99.6%  
72 0.8% 98.5% Last Result
73 4% 98%  
74 6% 94%  
75 11% 88%  
76 7% 76%  
77 9% 69%  
78 12% 60%  
79 17% 48% Median
80 7% 32%  
81 8% 25%  
82 5% 17%  
83 5% 13%  
84 2% 8%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 0.9% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.9%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 1.1% 98.8%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 95%  
74 8% 91%  
75 5% 84%  
76 14% 79%  
77 8% 65%  
78 8% 57% Median
79 18% 48% Last Result
80 10% 30%  
81 5% 20%  
82 6% 15%  
83 3% 9%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.3%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.7% 99.3%  
69 2% 98.6%  
70 3% 97%  
71 6% 94%  
72 4% 88%  
73 6% 84%  
74 10% 79%  
75 12% 69%  
76 11% 56% Last Result, Median
77 16% 45%  
78 10% 29%  
79 9% 19%  
80 3% 10%  
81 5% 6%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.1%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 0.7% 99.3%  
62 1.0% 98.7%  
63 3% 98%  
64 4% 95%  
65 7% 91%  
66 8% 84%  
67 12% 76%  
68 10% 64%  
69 12% 54%  
70 12% 43%  
71 9% 31% Last Result, Median
72 7% 22%  
73 6% 15%  
74 6% 9%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 1.4% 98.7%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 7% 92%  
60 9% 85%  
61 6% 76%  
62 10% 70%  
63 10% 60%  
64 13% 50% Median
65 7% 37%  
66 16% 30%  
67 6% 14%  
68 2% 7% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 0.7% 3%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.7%  
57 3% 98.9%  
58 2% 96%  
59 7% 94%  
60 12% 87%  
61 13% 75% Last Result
62 15% 62% Median
63 15% 48%  
64 9% 33%  
65 7% 23%  
66 6% 16%  
67 5% 10%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.2% 3%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 0.8% 99.0%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 5% 95%  
57 6% 90%  
58 8% 84%  
59 8% 77%  
60 11% 69%  
61 10% 57%  
62 9% 47% Median
63 14% 38%  
64 12% 25%  
65 6% 13% Last Result
66 3% 6%  
67 0.9% 3%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.3%  
48 3% 98.6%  
49 4% 96%  
50 5% 92%  
51 9% 87%  
52 10% 78%  
53 7% 69%  
54 19% 62% Median
55 9% 43%  
56 13% 35%  
57 9% 21% Last Result
58 6% 12%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.1%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.5%  
39 1.0% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 4% 95%  
42 7% 91%  
43 4% 84%  
44 10% 80%  
45 9% 70%  
46 11% 61%  
47 9% 50% Last Result, Median
48 17% 41%  
49 13% 23%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 2%  
54 0.8% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.3%  
28 1.1% 98.7%  
29 1.2% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 5% 94%  
32 3% 89%  
33 7% 86%  
34 5% 79%  
35 9% 74%  
36 12% 65%  
37 4% 53%  
38 20% 49% Median
39 12% 29% Last Result
40 6% 17%  
41 4% 11%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.7% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations