Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisens Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 2–8 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.3–28.9% 22.5–29.8%
Høyre 20.4% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.8–23.2% 18.4–23.6% 17.7–24.4%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.5–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4%
Rødt 4.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.5%
Venstre 4.6% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 48 44–52 43–52 42–53 40–55
Høyre 36 37 33–40 32–41 32–42 30–44
Senterpartiet 28 24 21–30 21–31 20–31 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 21 19–23 18–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 13–18 13–19 12–19 11–21
Rødt 8 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 1–13
Venstre 8 9 3–10 3–11 3–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–3 1–7 1–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.4%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 6% 93%  
45 9% 87%  
46 15% 78%  
47 12% 63%  
48 18% 51% Last Result, Median
49 16% 33%  
50 3% 17%  
51 3% 14%  
52 6% 10%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 4% 98%  
33 7% 94%  
34 9% 87%  
35 9% 79%  
36 7% 69% Last Result
37 18% 63% Median
38 22% 45%  
39 10% 23%  
40 5% 13%  
41 4% 8%  
42 1.2% 3%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 1.3% 99.3%  
20 2% 98%  
21 6% 96%  
22 21% 90%  
23 17% 69%  
24 8% 51% Median
25 5% 43%  
26 5% 39%  
27 7% 34%  
28 7% 27% Last Result
29 7% 20%  
30 5% 12%  
31 6% 7%  
32 0.8% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 7% 97%  
19 17% 91%  
20 22% 74%  
21 16% 52% Last Result, Median
22 16% 36%  
23 10% 20%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 1.1% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.8%  
12 3% 98.9%  
13 8% 96% Last Result
14 18% 88%  
15 16% 70%  
16 24% 54% Median
17 15% 31%  
18 8% 16%  
19 7% 8%  
20 1.0% 1.5%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 0.2% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0.1% 98%  
7 5% 98%  
8 19% 93% Last Result
9 24% 74% Median
10 26% 50%  
11 16% 24%  
12 7% 8%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 10% 99.2%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0% 89%  
7 12% 89%  
8 27% 77% Last Result
9 30% 50% Median
10 14% 21%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 1.1%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 4% 99.8%  
2 32% 96%  
3 37% 64% Last Result, Median
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0.2% 27%  
7 15% 27%  
8 10% 12%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 48% 99.9%  
2 30% 52% Median
3 15% 22% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0.3% 7%  
7 5% 7%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 100 100% 95–104 94–105 92–107 90–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 98 100% 93–102 92–103 90–104 88–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 95 99.8% 90–99 89–101 88–102 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 93 99.5% 90–99 89–100 87–101 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 90 94% 86–95 84–96 83–98 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 88 86% 84–92 82–94 81–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 78 8% 73–84 72–86 71–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 76 2% 71–82 70–83 69–84 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.2% 70–79 68–80 67–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 72 0% 68–77 67–78 66–79 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 71 0% 67–76 66–77 65–79 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 69 0% 65–74 64–75 62–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 66 0% 61–70 60–72 59–72 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 58 0% 53–62 52–63 51–64 50–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 48 0% 44–54 42–54 42–55 40–57
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 36 0% 32–43 30–44 28–46 28–47

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.7%  
91 0.7% 99.3%  
92 1.4% 98.5%  
93 2% 97%  
94 4% 95%  
95 6% 91%  
96 8% 85%  
97 6% 77%  
98 11% 71%  
99 11% 61% Median
100 11% 50% Last Result
101 14% 39%  
102 8% 25%  
103 5% 18%  
104 5% 12%  
105 3% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.6% 1.0%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.6%  
89 0.9% 99.2%  
90 2% 98%  
91 1.4% 97%  
92 4% 95%  
93 8% 91%  
94 8% 84%  
95 7% 76%  
96 4% 69%  
97 14% 65% Last Result, Median
98 10% 52%  
99 15% 42%  
100 11% 27%  
101 6% 16%  
102 5% 10%  
103 1.3% 5%  
104 2% 4%  
105 2% 2%  
106 0.6% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8% Majority
86 0.4% 99.5%  
87 0.5% 99.1%  
88 2% 98.5%  
89 2% 96%  
90 6% 94%  
91 13% 88%  
92 7% 75%  
93 12% 69%  
94 6% 56% Median
95 9% 51%  
96 15% 42% Last Result
97 6% 27%  
98 7% 21%  
99 5% 13%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.7% 1.1%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.4% 99.9%  
85 0.8% 99.5% Majority
86 0.8% 98.8%  
87 1.2% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 4% 95%  
90 7% 92%  
91 16% 85%  
92 7% 69%  
93 12% 62% Median
94 9% 50%  
95 10% 41% Last Result
96 9% 31%  
97 4% 22%  
98 7% 18%  
99 3% 11%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.7%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.8%  
82 1.1% 99.4%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 2% 94% Majority
86 8% 92%  
87 9% 84%  
88 13% 76%  
89 8% 63%  
90 13% 55% Median
91 9% 42%  
92 5% 33% Last Result
93 14% 28%  
94 4% 15%  
95 4% 10%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 2% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 1.2% 99.3%  
81 0.7% 98%  
82 3% 97%  
83 3% 94%  
84 5% 91%  
85 11% 86% Majority
86 7% 75%  
87 12% 68%  
88 11% 56% Median
89 13% 45% Last Result
90 6% 31%  
91 10% 25%  
92 8% 15%  
93 2% 7%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.0%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 98.9%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 96%  
73 4% 92%  
74 9% 88%  
75 10% 79%  
76 4% 69%  
77 10% 65% Median
78 9% 55%  
79 12% 46%  
80 8% 35%  
81 7% 27%  
82 3% 20% Last Result
83 4% 16%  
84 5% 13%  
85 1.2% 8% Majority
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.7% 1.1%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 1.3% 98.9%  
69 1.2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 7% 95%  
72 4% 88%  
73 8% 83%  
74 11% 75%  
75 7% 63% Median
76 14% 57%  
77 10% 43%  
78 7% 33%  
79 6% 26% Last Result
80 6% 20%  
81 3% 14%  
82 3% 11%  
83 5% 8%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.8% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 6% 92%  
71 7% 86%  
72 6% 79% Last Result
73 15% 73%  
74 9% 58%  
75 6% 49% Median
76 12% 43%  
77 7% 31%  
78 13% 25%  
79 6% 11%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.5% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.5%  
65 1.1% 98.6%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 95%  
68 8% 93%  
69 7% 85%  
70 8% 78%  
71 16% 70%  
72 7% 55% Median
73 8% 48%  
74 12% 40%  
75 11% 29%  
76 7% 18% Last Result
77 2% 11%  
78 5% 9%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.8% 1.4%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.8%  
64 2% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 1.4% 96%  
67 5% 95%  
68 6% 90%  
69 11% 84%  
70 15% 73%  
71 10% 58% Last Result
72 14% 48% Median
73 4% 34%  
74 7% 31%  
75 8% 24%  
76 8% 16%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 5% 92%  
66 5% 88%  
67 8% 82%  
68 14% 74% Last Result
69 11% 61%  
70 11% 50% Median
71 11% 39%  
72 5% 28%  
73 8% 23%  
74 6% 14%  
75 5% 9%  
76 1.4% 4%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 0.7% 1.4%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 4% 92%  
62 5% 88%  
63 8% 83%  
64 8% 75%  
65 10% 68% Last Result
66 16% 57%  
67 14% 41% Median
68 8% 27%  
69 6% 20%  
70 4% 13%  
71 3% 9%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.4%  
75 0.5% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.5%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 4% 96%  
59 4% 92%  
60 9% 88%  
61 10% 79% Last Result
62 8% 69%  
63 17% 60%  
64 9% 43% Median
65 15% 34%  
66 3% 20%  
67 9% 16%  
68 3% 8%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.8% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 4% 97%  
53 5% 93%  
54 5% 88%  
55 5% 82%  
56 9% 77%  
57 17% 68% Last Result
58 15% 51% Median
59 7% 36%  
60 6% 28%  
61 10% 22%  
62 5% 12%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 3% 98%  
43 3% 94%  
44 4% 91%  
45 4% 87%  
46 6% 83%  
47 12% 78% Last Result
48 17% 66%  
49 10% 50% Median
50 6% 39%  
51 12% 33%  
52 4% 21%  
53 7% 17%  
54 7% 11%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 2% 97%  
30 1.2% 95%  
31 3% 94%  
32 5% 91%  
33 10% 87%  
34 8% 76%  
35 8% 68%  
36 11% 60% Median
37 7% 49%  
38 10% 42%  
39 6% 32% Last Result
40 5% 26%  
41 5% 21%  
42 5% 16%  
43 4% 11%  
44 3% 7%  
45 0.9% 4%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.8%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations