Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 9–14 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.0–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
Høyre 20.4% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Rødt 4.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Venstre 4.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 52 47–56 46–57 45–57 44–59
Høyre 36 37 33–40 32–41 31–41 29–44
Senterpartiet 28 20 17–23 17–25 16–27 15–29
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–22 16–22 16–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 12–17 12–18 11–18 10–20
Rødt 8 9 7–11 5–11 1–11 1–12
Venstre 8 9 7–10 7–10 3–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 1.4% 99.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 96%  
47 9% 91%  
48 6% 82% Last Result
49 8% 77%  
50 8% 69%  
51 6% 60%  
52 14% 55% Median
53 11% 40%  
54 13% 29%  
55 4% 16%  
56 5% 12%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.4%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 5% 92%  
34 7% 87%  
35 15% 80%  
36 9% 65% Last Result
37 9% 57% Median
38 19% 47%  
39 9% 28%  
40 14% 19%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.7%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 3% 98%  
17 11% 95%  
18 12% 84%  
19 15% 72%  
20 21% 57% Median
21 14% 36%  
22 8% 22%  
23 5% 14%  
24 3% 9%  
25 3% 7%  
26 0.9% 4%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 2% Last Result
29 0.6% 0.9%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 1.0% 99.2%  
16 6% 98%  
17 13% 92%  
18 24% 78%  
19 17% 54% Median
20 17% 38%  
21 10% 21% Last Result
22 9% 11%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.9% 1.2%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.8%  
11 4% 99.0%  
12 7% 95%  
13 14% 88% Last Result
14 22% 74%  
15 20% 52% Median
16 16% 32%  
17 11% 17%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 0.1% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 1.0% 95%  
7 13% 94%  
8 24% 81% Last Result
9 28% 58% Median
10 17% 30%  
11 11% 12%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 3% 99.3%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.3% 96%  
7 10% 96%  
8 29% 85% Last Result
9 40% 56% Median
10 12% 16%  
11 3% 4%  
12 1.0% 1.3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 18% 98%  
3 24% 80% Last Result
4 0% 56%  
5 0.1% 56%  
6 1.3% 56%  
7 32% 55% Median
8 16% 23%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.2% 1.5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 26% 99.0%  
3 31% 73% Last Result, Median
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 2% 42%  
7 18% 40%  
8 20% 23%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 100 100% 95–105 93–106 93–108 90–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 96 99.9% 91–101 90–102 89–104 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 95 99.5% 90–99 88–101 87–102 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 91 96% 86–97 85–98 84–99 82–100
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 89 83% 84–94 82–96 81–97 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 86 67% 82–91 80–92 79–93 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 81 23% 75–87 75–88 73–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 80 16% 75–85 73–86 72–88 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 76 1.3% 70–81 69–82 68–83 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 74 0.4% 70–79 68–81 67–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 72 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 69 0% 64–74 62–75 61–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 66 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 58–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 64 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 56 0% 51–60 50–61 49–62 48–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 50 0% 45–55 44–56 43–57 41–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 32 0% 29–38 28–40 27–42 24–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.2% 100%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.7% 99.3%  
92 0.7% 98.5%  
93 3% 98%  
94 5% 95%  
95 5% 90%  
96 5% 85%  
97 5% 80%  
98 8% 75%  
99 11% 66%  
100 12% 55% Last Result
101 8% 43%  
102 10% 35%  
103 7% 25% Median
104 4% 17%  
105 5% 13%  
106 3% 7%  
107 2% 5%  
108 2% 3%  
109 1.3% 2%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.6% 99.3%  
89 3% 98.7%  
90 1.1% 96%  
91 6% 95%  
92 8% 89%  
93 9% 81%  
94 10% 72%  
95 9% 62% Last Result
96 7% 53%  
97 7% 45% Median
98 12% 38%  
99 6% 27%  
100 10% 21%  
101 3% 10%  
102 3% 7%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.4% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.2% 99.5% Majority
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 3% 98.6%  
88 2% 96%  
89 3% 94%  
90 5% 91%  
91 8% 85%  
92 5% 77%  
93 7% 73%  
94 12% 66%  
95 11% 53%  
96 12% 42% Median
97 7% 30% Last Result
98 11% 23%  
99 4% 12%  
100 2% 8%  
101 3% 6%  
102 3% 3%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.6% 99.4%  
84 2% 98.8%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 7% 95%  
87 3% 88%  
88 3% 84%  
89 10% 81%  
90 15% 71%  
91 12% 56%  
92 9% 44% Last Result
93 8% 35%  
94 7% 27% Median
95 4% 20%  
96 3% 17%  
97 6% 13%  
98 4% 7%  
99 2% 3%  
100 1.3% 2%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 2% 99.3%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 9% 92%  
85 5% 83% Majority
86 4% 78%  
87 11% 74%  
88 12% 63% Median
89 6% 51%  
90 13% 45%  
91 8% 32%  
92 5% 24%  
93 6% 20%  
94 6% 14%  
95 2% 8%  
96 3% 6% Last Result
97 1.0% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.2% 1.1%  
100 0.2% 0.9%  
101 0.5% 0.7%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.4%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 3% 97%  
81 4% 94%  
82 8% 91%  
83 10% 83%  
84 6% 73%  
85 11% 67% Majority
86 8% 57%  
87 15% 49% Median
88 10% 34%  
89 7% 23% Last Result
90 6% 16%  
91 5% 11%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 98.9%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 0.8% 97%  
75 7% 96%  
76 2% 89%  
77 4% 87%  
78 10% 83%  
79 7% 74%  
80 5% 67%  
81 12% 61%  
82 6% 49% Last Result, Median
83 14% 43%  
84 6% 29%  
85 9% 23% Majority
86 5% 15%  
87 3% 10%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.8%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.2%  
70 0.3% 98.9%  
71 0.6% 98.7%  
72 1.4% 98% Last Result
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 93%  
75 7% 91%  
76 6% 84%  
77 5% 78%  
78 7% 73%  
79 13% 66%  
80 7% 53%  
81 11% 46%  
82 11% 35%  
83 4% 24% Median
84 4% 20%  
85 9% 16% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 3% 98.7%  
69 2% 96%  
70 4% 94%  
71 2% 90%  
72 6% 87%  
73 8% 81%  
74 7% 73%  
75 9% 66% Median
76 12% 57%  
77 4% 45%  
78 13% 41%  
79 6% 28% Last Result
80 11% 22%  
81 4% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.4% 99.5%  
67 3% 99.1%  
68 3% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 4% 91%  
71 11% 87% Last Result
72 7% 76%  
73 13% 69%  
74 12% 56%  
75 11% 43% Median
76 7% 32%  
77 5% 25%  
78 7% 20%  
79 4% 13%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 1.4% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 5% 96%  
67 5% 90%  
68 6% 85%  
69 6% 79%  
70 7% 73%  
71 15% 65%  
72 12% 51% Median
73 15% 39%  
74 6% 24%  
75 8% 18%  
76 4% 10% Last Result
77 3% 6%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.6% 1.1%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 1.4% 99.7%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 95%  
64 6% 92%  
65 5% 86%  
66 8% 82%  
67 11% 74%  
68 7% 63% Last Result, Median
69 13% 55%  
70 12% 43%  
71 8% 30%  
72 5% 23%  
73 4% 17%  
74 5% 13%  
75 4% 8%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.6% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.1%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 4% 94% Last Result
62 12% 89%  
63 5% 77%  
64 3% 72%  
65 14% 69%  
66 5% 55%  
67 13% 50% Median
68 12% 37%  
69 4% 24%  
70 10% 20%  
71 5% 10%  
72 3% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.3%  
57 2% 98.6%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 4% 90%  
61 10% 86%  
62 11% 77%  
63 8% 65%  
64 11% 57%  
65 7% 46% Last Result, Median
66 9% 39%  
67 12% 30%  
68 7% 18%  
69 3% 11%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 1.3% 99.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 4% 93%  
52 6% 90%  
53 11% 83%  
54 9% 72%  
55 11% 63%  
56 10% 52% Median
57 7% 42% Last Result
58 15% 36%  
59 8% 21%  
60 6% 13%  
61 3% 7%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.4% 1.4%  
64 0.6% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 0.8% 99.1%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 5% 92%  
46 4% 87%  
47 7% 83% Last Result
48 15% 76%  
49 9% 61% Median
50 7% 52%  
51 9% 45%  
52 14% 36%  
53 7% 23%  
54 4% 16%  
55 4% 12%  
56 4% 8%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.3% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.6% 99.4%  
26 0.7% 98.8%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 11% 92%  
30 7% 81%  
31 11% 74%  
32 14% 63% Median
33 5% 49%  
34 7% 44%  
35 10% 37%  
36 7% 27%  
37 10% 21%  
38 4% 11%  
39 0.9% 7% Last Result
40 2% 6%  
41 1.4% 4%  
42 1.1% 3%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations