Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 10–15 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Høyre 20.4% 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.2–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Venstre 4.6% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Rødt 4.7% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Liberalistene 0.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Konservativt 0.4% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Kystpartiet 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%
Helsepartiet 0.2% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 43 43–50 43–50 42–50 39–53
Høyre 36 41 35–41 34–41 34–42 33–44
Senterpartiet 28 28 22–28 21–29 21–30 18–30
Fremskrittspartiet 21 18 18–20 17–21 17–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 18 16–18 15–18 13–19 13–21
Venstre 8 9 9–10 8–10 3–10 2–12
Rødt 8 8 8–9 8–9 7–11 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 3–7 3–7 3–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberalistene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kystpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Helsepartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 98%  
41 0.5% 98%  
42 0.5% 98%  
43 74% 97% Median
44 3% 23%  
45 0.2% 20%  
46 2% 20%  
47 0.1% 18%  
48 3% 18% Last Result
49 2% 15%  
50 12% 13%  
51 0.1% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.9%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 7% 99.2%  
35 9% 92%  
36 0.2% 83% Last Result
37 0.4% 83%  
38 1.2% 83%  
39 0.3% 81%  
40 2% 81%  
41 76% 79% Median
42 2% 4%  
43 0.1% 2%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 0.2% 99.4%  
20 0.1% 99.1%  
21 4% 99.0%  
22 8% 95%  
23 2% 87%  
24 0.1% 85%  
25 0.3% 85%  
26 4% 85%  
27 0.5% 80%  
28 75% 80% Last Result, Median
29 0.7% 5%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.1% 0.3%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 0.2% 98%  
17 4% 98%  
18 76% 94% Median
19 1.4% 17%  
20 10% 16%  
21 1.2% 6% Last Result
22 0.3% 4%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.2% 0.9%  
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0.1% 99.7%  
13 2% 99.6% Last Result
14 0.5% 97%  
15 6% 97%  
16 6% 91%  
17 0.5% 85%  
18 82% 85% Median
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.8%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 2% 99.2%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 2% 97%  
8 3% 95% Last Result
9 75% 93% Median
10 16% 18%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 79% 95% Last Result, Median
9 13% 16%  
10 0.5% 4%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 2% 99.6%  
3 83% 98% Last Result, Median
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 10% 15%  
8 0.8% 5%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.0% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 81% 98.7% Median
2 16% 18%  
3 2% 2% Last Result
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liberalistene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalistene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kystpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kystpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Helsepartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Helsepartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 100 100% 100–102 100–106 98–107 96–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 93 99.8% 93–95 93–99 93–100 88–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 97 100% 95–99 93–99 93–100 88–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 92 99.8% 92–94 91–97 91–99 88–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 97 99.2% 89–97 88–97 88–98 84–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 89 94% 88–90 84–92 84–92 82–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 75 0.3% 75–80 75–83 75–84 72–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 72 0.8% 72–80 72–81 71–81 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 72 0% 72–74 71–77 71–77 69–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 71 0% 71–72 69–75 69–76 67–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 72 0% 70–74 70–76 69–76 67–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 69 0% 67–69 62–69 62–71 62–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 68 0% 65–68 61–68 60–69 60–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 61 0% 61–66 60–68 57–68 57–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 59 0% 55–59 53–59 51–62 51–65
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 51 0% 46–51 45–51 44–53 43–53
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 38 0% 34–38 33–39 29–39 26–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.6%  
96 0.3% 99.5%  
97 1.3% 99.2%  
98 1.2% 98%  
99 0.3% 97%  
100 77% 96% Last Result, Median
101 3% 19%  
102 10% 17%  
103 0.5% 7%  
104 0.1% 6%  
105 0.4% 6%  
106 2% 6%  
107 4% 4%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0.2% 99.6%  
89 0.2% 99.5%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 0.3% 99.0%  
92 0.5% 98.7%  
93 79% 98% Median
94 0.5% 19%  
95 10% 19% Last Result
96 0.4% 9%  
97 1.4% 9%  
98 1.3% 8%  
99 2% 6%  
100 4% 5%  
101 0.1% 0.6%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.6%  
89 0.1% 99.2%  
90 0.8% 99.1%  
91 0.2% 98%  
92 0.1% 98%  
93 3% 98%  
94 3% 95%  
95 2% 91%  
96 1.0% 90%  
97 76% 89% Last Result, Median
98 0.3% 13%  
99 8% 13%  
100 4% 5%  
101 0.1% 0.6%  
102 0.5% 0.6%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.6%  
88 0.3% 99.5%  
89 0.4% 99.3%  
90 0.6% 98.9%  
91 5% 98%  
92 74% 94% Last Result, Median
93 8% 19%  
94 3% 11%  
95 0.8% 8%  
96 1.4% 8%  
97 2% 6%  
98 0.2% 4%  
99 4% 4%  
100 0.1% 0.5%  
101 0.3% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.7% 100%  
85 0% 99.2% Majority
86 0.3% 99.2%  
87 0% 98.9%  
88 4% 98.9%  
89 8% 95%  
90 5% 87%  
91 0.3% 82%  
92 2% 82%  
93 0.3% 80%  
94 0.5% 80%  
95 0.2% 79%  
96 0.6% 79% Last Result
97 74% 78% Median
98 3% 4%  
99 0.1% 1.5%  
100 1.0% 1.4%  
101 0% 0.4%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 0% 99.0%  
84 5% 99.0%  
85 1.2% 94% Majority
86 0.3% 93%  
87 3% 93%  
88 2% 90%  
89 74% 88% Last Result, Median
90 8% 14%  
91 0.9% 6%  
92 4% 6%  
93 1.1% 1.3%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.3% 99.5%  
73 0.1% 99.3%  
74 0% 99.2%  
75 74% 99.1% Median
76 0.6% 25%  
77 8% 24%  
78 5% 16%  
79 0.4% 11%  
80 2% 11%  
81 1.4% 9%  
82 2% 8% Last Result
83 0.9% 5%  
84 4% 4%  
85 0% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.9% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 98.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 74% 96% Last Result, Median
73 0.5% 22%  
74 0.3% 21%  
75 0.4% 21%  
76 2% 20%  
77 0.5% 19%  
78 0.3% 18%  
79 5% 18%  
80 8% 13%  
81 4% 5%  
82 0% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 1.1%  
84 0% 0.8%  
85 0.7% 0.8% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 1.2% 99.3%  
71 6% 98%  
72 74% 92% Median
73 1.1% 18%  
74 8% 17%  
75 3% 9%  
76 0.3% 6%  
77 4% 5%  
78 1.0% 1.4%  
79 0% 0.4% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0% 99.8%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.3%  
69 7% 98.5%  
70 1.0% 92%  
71 75% 91% Median
72 7% 16%  
73 0.4% 9%  
74 3% 8%  
75 0.7% 6%  
76 4% 5% Last Result
77 0.9% 1.1%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.4%  
69 4% 99.4%  
70 8% 95%  
71 2% 87% Last Result
72 74% 85% Median
73 0.8% 11%  
74 2% 10%  
75 3% 9%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.1% 2%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0% 0.4%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 5% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 95%  
64 0.3% 94%  
65 0.1% 94%  
66 0.5% 94%  
67 10% 93%  
68 3% 83% Last Result
69 77% 81% Median
70 0.8% 3%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 4% 97%  
62 0.3% 94%  
63 0.1% 93%  
64 0.8% 93%  
65 9% 93% Last Result
66 0.5% 84%  
67 5% 83%  
68 75% 78% Median
69 0.9% 3%  
70 0.3% 2%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.5%  
58 2% 97%  
59 0.3% 96%  
60 0.5% 95%  
61 76% 95% Last Result, Median
62 0.1% 19%  
63 4% 19%  
64 2% 16%  
65 2% 14%  
66 4% 12%  
67 0.1% 8%  
68 8% 8%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.8%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 4% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 96%  
53 2% 96%  
54 0.6% 94%  
55 7% 93%  
56 0.2% 86%  
57 3% 86% Last Result
58 2% 82%  
59 77% 81% Median
60 1.0% 4%  
61 0.4% 3%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 1.1%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 1.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 94%  
47 9% 89% Last Result
48 0.2% 80%  
49 0.5% 80%  
50 0.1% 79%  
51 75% 79% Median
52 1.1% 5%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.7% 100%  
27 0% 99.2%  
28 1.5% 99.2%  
29 1.0% 98%  
30 0.1% 97%  
31 0.3% 97%  
32 0.7% 96%  
33 3% 96%  
34 8% 92%  
35 0.4% 84%  
36 0.1% 84%  
37 4% 84%  
38 74% 80% Median
39 4% 6% Last Result
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.3% 1.4%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations