Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 16–22 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
Høyre 20.4% 20.4% 18.8–22.2% 18.4–22.7% 18.0–23.1% 17.3–24.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.9% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–16.0%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.8% 9.2–14.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.1–11.9% 7.6–12.6%
Rødt 4.7% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.9%
Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 44 41–48 40–48 39–50 38–52
Høyre 36 37 33–40 32–41 31–42 30–44
Fremskrittspartiet 21 22 20–26 20–27 19–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 28 21 18–24 17–26 17–28 16–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 17 15–20 14–21 14–21 12–23
Rødt 8 11 9–13 9–14 9–14 8–16
Venstre 8 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 3–7 1–7 1–7 0–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 97%  
41 6% 93%  
42 6% 86%  
43 12% 80%  
44 22% 68% Median
45 17% 46%  
46 10% 29%  
47 7% 19%  
48 8% 12% Last Result
49 1.3% 4%  
50 0.6% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.7% 1.1%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 3% 97%  
33 4% 94%  
34 6% 90%  
35 9% 84%  
36 17% 75% Last Result
37 16% 58% Median
38 10% 42%  
39 18% 32%  
40 6% 14%  
41 4% 8%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.7% 1.5%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 3% 98%  
20 8% 95%  
21 9% 88% Last Result
22 29% 78% Median
23 16% 50%  
24 12% 34%  
25 10% 22%  
26 6% 12%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.5%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 5% 98%  
18 10% 93%  
19 13% 83%  
20 16% 70%  
21 18% 54% Median
22 11% 37%  
23 6% 26%  
24 11% 19%  
25 3% 8%  
26 0.8% 6%  
27 2% 5%  
28 2% 3% Last Result
29 0.4% 0.7%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.5% Last Result
14 3% 98%  
15 12% 95%  
16 17% 83%  
17 19% 65% Median
18 14% 46%  
19 13% 31%  
20 11% 18%  
21 5% 7%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9% Last Result
9 10% 98%  
10 17% 88%  
11 26% 71% Median
12 26% 45%  
13 11% 19%  
14 7% 9%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 17% 94%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0.3% 77%  
7 13% 77%  
8 38% 64% Last Result, Median
9 19% 26%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.1% 1.5%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 5% 98%  
2 0.8% 93%  
3 58% 92% Last Result, Median
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 2% 34%  
7 30% 32%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0.3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100%  
2 37% 86% Median
3 33% 49% Last Result
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0.3% 15%  
7 10% 15%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 97 99.9% 93–102 92–104 90–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 94 99.5% 90–99 88–100 87–102 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 90 92% 85–95 84–98 83–99 80–101
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 93 98% 87–96 86–98 85–98 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 86 63% 81–91 80–92 79–93 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 83 42% 78–87 77–88 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 76 1.2% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 74 0.2% 70–79 68–80 67–82 63–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 73 0.6% 67–78 66–81 65–82 63–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 71 0% 66–76 65–76 64–78 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 69 0% 65–75 63–76 63–77 60–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 67 0% 62–72 60–73 58–73 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 65 0% 61–69 60–70 60–72 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 62 0% 58–65 57–66 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 60 0% 55–64 53–65 53–67 50–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 48 0% 44–53 42–54 41–55 38–55
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 32 0% 28–36 27–38 26–39 23–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.5%  
89 0.7% 99.4%  
90 1.5% 98.7%  
91 2% 97%  
92 3% 96%  
93 14% 92%  
94 7% 79%  
95 5% 72% Median
96 10% 67%  
97 10% 56%  
98 11% 47%  
99 6% 36%  
100 10% 31% Last Result
101 7% 20%  
102 5% 13%  
103 3% 8%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.2% 3%  
106 0.7% 1.4%  
107 0.5% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 99.5% Majority
86 0.5% 98.6%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 12% 90%  
91 5% 78%  
92 7% 73%  
93 5% 66% Median
94 12% 61%  
95 8% 49%  
96 15% 41%  
97 9% 27% Last Result
98 5% 18%  
99 6% 13%  
100 3% 7%  
101 2% 4%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.5% 1.1%  
104 0.2% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.3%  
82 0.8% 98.7%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 4% 92% Majority
86 8% 88%  
87 6% 80% Median
88 6% 75%  
89 5% 69%  
90 22% 64%  
91 12% 43%  
92 10% 31%  
93 5% 21%  
94 5% 16%  
95 3% 11% Last Result
96 2% 9%  
97 1.3% 6%  
98 1.2% 5%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.2% 99.4%  
83 0.7% 99.2%  
84 1.0% 98%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 4% 93%  
88 3% 90%  
89 6% 86%  
90 9% 80%  
91 11% 71% Median
92 9% 60%  
93 18% 51%  
94 5% 33%  
95 14% 28%  
96 7% 14% Last Result
97 2% 7%  
98 4% 5%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.7% 99.8%  
78 1.1% 99.1%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 6% 94%  
82 5% 88%  
83 14% 84%  
84 7% 69% Median
85 9% 63% Majority
86 5% 54%  
87 17% 49%  
88 11% 32%  
89 8% 22%  
90 3% 14%  
91 3% 11%  
92 4% 8% Last Result
93 2% 4%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 95%  
78 5% 92%  
79 4% 87%  
80 11% 84%  
81 11% 73%  
82 7% 62% Median
83 6% 55%  
84 7% 48%  
85 22% 42% Majority
86 6% 20%  
87 7% 14%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 5% Last Result
90 2% 3%  
91 0.7% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 99.2%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 5% 93% Last Result
73 9% 88%  
74 13% 79% Median
75 6% 66%  
76 18% 60%  
77 9% 42%  
78 11% 34%  
79 7% 22%  
80 5% 16%  
81 3% 10%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.3% 99.0%  
66 0.9% 98.7%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 95%  
69 3% 94%  
70 6% 90%  
71 6% 84% Last Result
72 11% 78% Median
73 16% 67%  
74 8% 51%  
75 11% 44%  
76 5% 33%  
77 6% 27%  
78 6% 21%  
79 9% 15%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.2% 1.2%  
84 0.8% 1.0%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.4% 99.2%  
65 3% 98.7%  
66 3% 95%  
67 7% 92%  
68 4% 86%  
69 4% 81%  
70 11% 78% Median
71 8% 67%  
72 4% 58%  
73 7% 55%  
74 19% 47%  
75 8% 28%  
76 3% 20%  
77 5% 17%  
78 3% 12%  
79 3% 9%  
80 0.8% 6%  
81 1.1% 5%  
82 3% 4% Last Result
83 0.4% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 0.6% 99.2%  
63 1.0% 98.5%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 3% 92%  
67 6% 89%  
68 8% 84% Last Result
69 12% 76%  
70 6% 64% Median
71 11% 57%  
72 9% 46%  
73 11% 37%  
74 4% 27%  
75 8% 22%  
76 11% 15%  
77 1.5% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 99.1%  
63 4% 98.6%  
64 3% 95%  
65 9% 92%  
66 4% 83%  
67 7% 79%  
68 11% 72% Median
69 12% 61%  
70 6% 49%  
71 12% 43%  
72 12% 31%  
73 5% 19%  
74 3% 15%  
75 5% 11%  
76 3% 6%  
77 0.9% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 0.9% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 4% 91%  
63 5% 87%  
64 7% 82%  
65 9% 75% Last Result
66 14% 66%  
67 5% 53% Median
68 10% 47%  
69 12% 38%  
70 9% 25%  
71 3% 16%  
72 7% 13%  
73 4% 6%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.4%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0.4% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.5%  
59 0.8% 98.6%  
60 7% 98%  
61 4% 90%  
62 10% 87%  
63 6% 77%  
64 8% 71%  
65 14% 63% Median
66 11% 49%  
67 7% 38%  
68 10% 31%  
69 12% 20%  
70 4% 9%  
71 1.1% 5%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.8%  
55 1.4% 99.0%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 8% 93%  
59 6% 85%  
60 9% 80%  
61 18% 70% Last Result, Median
62 9% 52%  
63 11% 43%  
64 15% 33%  
65 10% 18%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 5%  
68 0.9% 3%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.5%  
51 0.5% 99.2%  
52 0.7% 98.8%  
53 3% 98%  
54 3% 95%  
55 3% 92%  
56 3% 89%  
57 6% 86% Last Result
58 14% 80%  
59 13% 66% Median
60 8% 54%  
61 13% 45%  
62 12% 33%  
63 6% 21%  
64 9% 15%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.0% 4%  
67 1.3% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.3%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.3%  
40 0.6% 98.9%  
41 1.2% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 3% 94%  
44 5% 92%  
45 7% 87%  
46 7% 79%  
47 11% 72% Last Result
48 17% 61% Median
49 11% 44%  
50 11% 34%  
51 7% 23%  
52 5% 16%  
53 3% 11%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 0.9% 99.4%  
25 0.9% 98.5%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 3% 92%  
29 7% 89%  
30 8% 81%  
31 10% 74%  
32 19% 63% Median
33 7% 44%  
34 15% 37%  
35 10% 22%  
36 5% 12%  
37 2% 7%  
38 2% 5%  
39 0.8% 3% Last Result
40 0.6% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations