Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagbladet, 22–24 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 24.0% 22.3–25.9% 21.8–26.4% 21.4–26.9% 20.6–27.8%
Høyre 20.4% 22.3% 20.6–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.1% 19.0–26.0%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.7–16.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.3% 10.0–12.7% 9.7–13.1% 9.4–13.5% 8.8–14.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.4% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.1%
Rødt 4.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.8–7.6%
Venstre 4.6% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 44 40–47 40–49 39–49 37–51
Høyre 36 39 36–43 35–44 35–46 33–47
Senterpartiet 28 25 21–29 21–30 20–31 19–32
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 12–21
Rødt 8 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 1–13
Venstre 8 8 3–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 3–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 9% 96%  
41 4% 87%  
42 16% 83%  
43 12% 67%  
44 10% 55% Median
45 13% 45%  
46 12% 32%  
47 11% 20%  
48 4% 10% Last Result
49 4% 6%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.6%  
34 0.9% 98.8%  
35 5% 98%  
36 4% 92% Last Result
37 10% 88%  
38 13% 78%  
39 17% 65% Median
40 17% 48%  
41 12% 31%  
42 8% 19%  
43 4% 11%  
44 4% 8%  
45 0.8% 4%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 6% 95%  
22 8% 89%  
23 7% 81%  
24 17% 75%  
25 11% 57% Median
26 5% 47%  
27 11% 42%  
28 13% 30% Last Result
29 9% 18%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.2% 1.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 5% 98%  
18 20% 93%  
19 13% 73%  
20 16% 60% Median
21 20% 44% Last Result
22 16% 24%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 11% 97% Last Result
14 7% 86%  
15 19% 78%  
16 14% 59% Median
17 22% 45%  
18 16% 23%  
19 4% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 1.1% 1.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0.6% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 14% 95% Last Result
9 34% 81% Median
10 29% 47%  
11 13% 18%  
12 4% 5%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 23% 94%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0.6% 70%  
7 19% 70%  
8 36% 51% Last Result, Median
9 11% 15%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 9% 99.4%  
3 24% 91% Last Result
4 0% 66%  
5 0% 66%  
6 1.2% 66%  
7 31% 65% Median
8 16% 34%  
9 12% 18%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 37% 90%  
2 43% 52% Median
3 8% 10% Last Result
4 0% 1.1%  
5 0% 1.1%  
6 0% 1.1%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 101 100% 96–106 95–108 94–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 94 99.6% 90–100 89–101 88–102 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 93 99.2% 89–98 87–100 86–101 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 92 97% 87–97 86–99 84–99 82–101
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 98% 88–96 86–97 85–98 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 85 63% 81–90 80–92 79–93 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 77 5% 71–83 70–85 70–85 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 1.4% 72–80 70–83 69–84 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 74 0.2% 69–78 67–79 66–80 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 71 0% 66–77 65–77 64–78 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 69 0% 65–75 64–76 62–77 60–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 67 0% 62–72 61–73 60–74 58–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 66 0% 61–71 60–71 59–72 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 59 0% 56–64 54–66 53–68 51–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 60 0% 56–65 55–66 54–66 53–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 48 0% 43–51 42–53 40–54 39–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 34 0% 28–38 27–39 26–40 24–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.7%  
92 0.6% 99.2%  
93 0.8% 98.6%  
94 1.0% 98%  
95 2% 97%  
96 5% 95%  
97 10% 89%  
98 9% 80%  
99 8% 70%  
100 6% 63% Last Result
101 11% 57% Median
102 11% 45%  
103 10% 34%  
104 5% 24%  
105 6% 18%  
106 4% 13%  
107 2% 8%  
108 4% 6%  
109 1.0% 2%  
110 0.4% 0.7%  
111 0.2% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6% Majority
86 0.4% 99.2%  
87 0.4% 98.8%  
88 1.1% 98%  
89 4% 97%  
90 4% 93%  
91 8% 90%  
92 7% 82%  
93 9% 76%  
94 18% 67% Median
95 6% 49%  
96 13% 43%  
97 6% 29% Last Result
98 5% 23%  
99 8% 18%  
100 4% 11%  
101 3% 6%  
102 3% 3%  
103 0.2% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.9% 99.2% Majority
86 1.1% 98%  
87 4% 97%  
88 2% 93%  
89 10% 91%  
90 12% 81%  
91 5% 69%  
92 7% 65%  
93 8% 58%  
94 14% 50% Median
95 10% 35% Last Result
96 5% 25%  
97 6% 20%  
98 5% 14%  
99 3% 9%  
100 2% 6%  
101 3% 4%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.6%  
83 0.9% 99.1%  
84 0.8% 98%  
85 1.3% 97% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 7% 92%  
88 14% 85%  
89 4% 71%  
90 7% 68%  
91 7% 61%  
92 7% 53% Last Result, Median
93 20% 47%  
94 4% 27%  
95 5% 22%  
96 7% 17%  
97 3% 10%  
98 2% 7%  
99 4% 5%  
100 0.5% 1.2%  
101 0.4% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 1.2% 99.4%  
85 1.3% 98% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 2% 94%  
88 4% 92%  
89 4% 89%  
90 6% 84%  
91 10% 79%  
92 8% 69%  
93 5% 60%  
94 14% 55% Median
95 19% 41%  
96 16% 22% Last Result
97 2% 6%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.0%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.7% 99.1%  
79 3% 98%  
80 3% 95%  
81 8% 92%  
82 5% 84%  
83 6% 79%  
84 11% 73%  
85 13% 63% Median, Majority
86 15% 50%  
87 8% 35%  
88 7% 27%  
89 6% 20% Last Result
90 5% 14%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 5%  
93 3% 3%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 98.6%  
70 4% 98%  
71 7% 94%  
72 3% 87%  
73 5% 83%  
74 4% 78%  
75 11% 74%  
76 9% 62%  
77 6% 53%  
78 11% 48% Median
79 5% 37%  
80 5% 32%  
81 10% 26%  
82 4% 16% Last Result
83 3% 13%  
84 4% 10%  
85 4% 5% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.2%  
69 1.5% 98.7%  
70 2% 97%  
71 2% 95%  
72 7% 92% Last Result
73 13% 86%  
74 18% 72%  
75 14% 54%  
76 5% 40% Median
77 8% 35%  
78 9% 27%  
79 5% 18%  
80 4% 13%  
81 3% 9%  
82 1.4% 7%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 1.1% 1.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 1.4% 98.7%  
67 3% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 5% 91%  
70 9% 86%  
71 5% 77% Last Result
72 6% 72%  
73 12% 66%  
74 8% 54%  
75 17% 46%  
76 9% 29% Median
77 5% 20%  
78 8% 16%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 5% 94%  
67 4% 89%  
68 19% 86%  
69 5% 67%  
70 7% 62%  
71 12% 54% Median
72 5% 42%  
73 8% 37%  
74 11% 29%  
75 3% 18%  
76 4% 15%  
77 8% 11%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.2%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 1.3% 97%  
64 5% 96%  
65 3% 90%  
66 11% 87%  
67 12% 76%  
68 7% 65%  
69 11% 57% Median
70 8% 46%  
71 6% 38%  
72 7% 32%  
73 8% 25%  
74 4% 17%  
75 7% 13%  
76 4% 6% Last Result
77 2% 3%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.5%  
60 1.4% 98.8%  
61 5% 97%  
62 3% 93%  
63 5% 90%  
64 7% 84%  
65 6% 77%  
66 11% 72%  
67 11% 60%  
68 12% 49% Last Result
69 5% 37% Median
70 7% 33%  
71 9% 26%  
72 10% 17%  
73 4% 7%  
74 1.4% 4%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.2%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.6%  
58 0.6% 99.2%  
59 4% 98.6%  
60 4% 95%  
61 5% 91%  
62 5% 86%  
63 7% 81%  
64 5% 75%  
65 14% 70% Last Result
66 15% 56%  
67 5% 41% Median
68 9% 35%  
69 9% 27%  
70 5% 17%  
71 9% 13%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.6% 99.2%  
53 3% 98.5%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 8% 90%  
57 13% 83% Last Result
58 15% 69%  
59 8% 55% Median
60 7% 46%  
61 14% 39%  
62 5% 26%  
63 6% 20%  
64 7% 14%  
65 2% 7%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.7% 3%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 1.4% 98.8%  
55 6% 97%  
56 4% 92%  
57 10% 88%  
58 11% 78%  
59 14% 67%  
60 7% 53% Median
61 14% 46% Last Result
62 13% 32%  
63 5% 19%  
64 4% 14%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 3% 99.1%  
41 1.0% 96%  
42 2% 95%  
43 7% 93%  
44 6% 87%  
45 8% 80%  
46 7% 73%  
47 13% 66% Last Result
48 14% 53%  
49 8% 39% Median
50 18% 31%  
51 4% 13%  
52 3% 9%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 0.8% 99.0%  
26 2% 98%  
27 3% 97%  
28 5% 94%  
29 7% 89%  
30 4% 82%  
31 9% 78%  
32 9% 70%  
33 8% 61%  
34 14% 53%  
35 6% 39% Median
36 5% 33%  
37 16% 28%  
38 5% 12%  
39 4% 7% Last Result
40 2% 3%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations