Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 23–27 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 25.1% 23.2–27.1% 22.6–27.7% 22.2–28.2% 21.3–29.2%
Høyre 20.4% 22.2% 20.3–24.1% 19.8–24.7% 19.4–25.2% 18.5–26.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 12.4% 11.0–14.0% 10.6–14.5% 10.3–14.9% 9.6–15.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.0% 10.7–13.6% 10.3–14.1% 9.9–14.5% 9.3–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 10.3% 9.0–11.8% 8.6–12.2% 8.3–12.6% 7.8–13.3%
Rødt 4.7% 5.1% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.4–7.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.6–5.2% 2.3–5.8%
Venstre 4.6% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.0% 1.5–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 46 42–50 41–51 40–52 39–55
Høyre 36 40 36–44 35–45 34–46 32–48
Senterpartiet 28 23 20–27 19–28 18–29 17–30
Fremskrittspartiet 21 21 19–24 18–25 17–26 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 18 16–21 15–22 15–23 13–24
Rødt 8 9 7–11 7–12 1–12 1–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 1–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.8%  
41 4% 96%  
42 4% 92%  
43 9% 87%  
44 16% 78%  
45 9% 62%  
46 15% 53% Median
47 10% 38%  
48 9% 28% Last Result
49 8% 19%  
50 5% 11%  
51 2% 6%  
52 1.4% 4%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.3%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 99.4%  
34 2% 98.5%  
35 3% 97%  
36 6% 94% Last Result
37 4% 88%  
38 13% 84%  
39 10% 71%  
40 14% 61% Median
41 14% 46%  
42 11% 32%  
43 8% 22%  
44 6% 14%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 1.0% 1.3%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 1.1% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.6%  
19 5% 96%  
20 12% 91%  
21 10% 79%  
22 14% 69%  
23 10% 55% Median
24 13% 45%  
25 8% 32%  
26 12% 24%  
27 7% 12%  
28 2% 5% Last Result
29 2% 3%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.1%  
18 5% 97%  
19 8% 93%  
20 21% 85%  
21 17% 64% Last Result, Median
22 15% 47%  
23 17% 32%  
24 5% 14%  
25 6% 10%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
14 1.5% 99.2%  
15 4% 98%  
16 12% 94%  
17 14% 82%  
18 27% 68% Median
19 15% 41%  
20 15% 26%  
21 6% 11%  
22 2% 5%  
23 1.4% 3%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 0.2% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.1% 95%  
7 5% 95%  
8 21% 90% Last Result
9 27% 68% Median
10 25% 41%  
11 11% 16%  
12 3% 5%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100%  
2 27% 79%  
3 20% 52% Last Result, Median
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0.2% 32%  
7 5% 32%  
8 15% 27%  
9 9% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 37% 98%  
3 30% 61% Median
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0.3% 31%  
7 8% 31%  
8 16% 23% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 35% 85%  
2 34% 51% Median
3 14% 17% Last Result
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 100 100% 95–106 93–107 92–109 89–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 96 99.7% 91–101 90–103 88–104 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 93 98% 88–98 86–100 85–102 82–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 91 95% 86–97 85–98 83–100 80–103
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 90 91% 85–97 84–98 82–99 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 87 73% 83–92 81–94 80–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 77 6% 71–83 70–85 69–85 65–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 75 1.2% 69–80 68–81 67–83 64–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 72 0.1% 65–76 64–78 63–80 61–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 70 0% 66–75 64–77 64–78 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 69 0% 64–73 62–76 62–77 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 67 0% 62–73 61–74 59–75 57–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 66 0% 60–71 59–73 57–73 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 64 0% 60–69 59–70 58–71 56–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 62 0% 57–67 56–68 54–69 52–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 46 0% 41–52 40–52 39–54 37–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 29 0% 23–35 23–35 23–36 21–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 0.5% 99.1%  
91 0.9% 98.6%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 3% 97%  
94 3% 94%  
95 5% 90%  
96 9% 85%  
97 5% 75%  
98 3% 70%  
99 9% 67% Median
100 11% 58% Last Result
101 6% 47%  
102 10% 41%  
103 10% 31%  
104 4% 21%  
105 5% 17%  
106 3% 12%  
107 5% 9%  
108 1.0% 4%  
109 0.8% 3%  
110 0.9% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.0%  
112 0.5% 0.6%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 0.8% 99.4%  
87 0.8% 98.6%  
88 1.2% 98%  
89 1.5% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 5% 94%  
92 4% 89%  
93 9% 84%  
94 12% 76%  
95 8% 64%  
96 7% 56% Median
97 14% 49% Last Result
98 7% 36%  
99 11% 29%  
100 5% 18%  
101 4% 13%  
102 5% 10%  
103 1.1% 5%  
104 3% 4%  
105 0.5% 1.2%  
106 0.5% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 1.1% 98.9%  
85 1.4% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 2% 94%  
88 9% 92%  
89 6% 83%  
90 5% 77%  
91 8% 72%  
92 14% 64% Median
93 9% 50%  
94 7% 42%  
95 9% 35% Last Result
96 5% 26%  
97 6% 20%  
98 5% 14%  
99 3% 9%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.4% 4%  
102 1.1% 3%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.8% 1.1%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.7% 99.5%  
82 0.9% 98.8%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 1.5% 97%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 6% 92%  
87 8% 85%  
88 6% 77%  
89 3% 71%  
90 5% 67% Median
91 16% 62%  
92 12% 47% Last Result
93 6% 35%  
94 7% 29%  
95 5% 22%  
96 4% 17%  
97 5% 12%  
98 3% 8%  
99 2% 5%  
100 1.1% 3%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.2%  
103 0.4% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.5%  
80 0.6% 99.2%  
81 0.7% 98.6%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 1.0% 97%  
84 5% 96%  
85 3% 91% Majority
86 7% 88%  
87 11% 81%  
88 7% 70%  
89 7% 63% Median
90 7% 56%  
91 8% 49%  
92 4% 41%  
93 3% 37%  
94 4% 34%  
95 16% 29%  
96 3% 14% Last Result
97 6% 11%  
98 3% 5%  
99 1.2% 3%  
100 0.4% 1.3%  
101 0.5% 0.9%  
102 0.1% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 99.4%  
79 1.2% 98.7%  
80 2% 98%  
81 2% 96%  
82 4% 94%  
83 6% 90%  
84 11% 84%  
85 7% 73% Majority
86 9% 66%  
87 8% 57% Median
88 13% 49%  
89 11% 36% Last Result
90 8% 26%  
91 4% 18%  
92 4% 13%  
93 4% 10%  
94 1.5% 6%  
95 3% 4%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.9%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 0.3% 99.3%  
68 0.7% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 6% 95%  
72 5% 89% Last Result
73 5% 84%  
74 20% 79%  
75 5% 59%  
76 3% 53% Median
77 4% 50%  
78 8% 46%  
79 6% 39%  
80 7% 33%  
81 4% 26%  
82 8% 22%  
83 6% 14%  
84 2% 9%  
85 4% 6% Majority
86 0.5% 2%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.4%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 5% 94%  
70 7% 89%  
71 9% 82%  
72 9% 73%  
73 6% 64%  
74 8% 58% Median
75 5% 50%  
76 14% 45%  
77 8% 31%  
78 5% 23%  
79 5% 18%  
80 5% 14%  
81 4% 9%  
82 0.8% 5% Last Result
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.8% 99.0%  
63 0.9% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 94%  
66 2% 90%  
67 5% 88%  
68 4% 82%  
69 6% 78% Median
70 12% 72%  
71 9% 60% Last Result
72 11% 51%  
73 6% 40%  
74 8% 34%  
75 11% 26%  
76 7% 15%  
77 3% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.2%  
63 0.9% 98.7%  
64 3% 98%  
65 4% 95%  
66 4% 91%  
67 5% 87%  
68 14% 82%  
69 10% 68%  
70 9% 57%  
71 7% 48% Median
72 10% 41%  
73 11% 32%  
74 5% 20%  
75 7% 16%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 6%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 99.3%  
62 3% 98%  
63 3% 95%  
64 4% 92%  
65 3% 87%  
66 8% 84%  
67 15% 76%  
68 10% 60%  
69 6% 50% Median
70 7% 44%  
71 9% 37%  
72 14% 29%  
73 5% 14%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 7%  
76 1.2% 5% Last Result
77 3% 4%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.1%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 1.5% 97%  
61 2% 95%  
62 8% 94%  
63 5% 86%  
64 6% 81%  
65 4% 74%  
66 11% 70% Median
67 11% 59%  
68 7% 49% Last Result
69 12% 42%  
70 6% 29%  
71 3% 23%  
72 5% 21%  
73 8% 16%  
74 4% 8%  
75 1.3% 4%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 1.0% 99.6%  
57 1.4% 98.6%  
58 1.1% 97%  
59 1.4% 96%  
60 5% 95%  
61 5% 89%  
62 5% 84%  
63 6% 79%  
64 10% 73% Median
65 10% 63% Last Result
66 11% 53%  
67 7% 42%  
68 10% 36%  
69 5% 26%  
70 5% 20%  
71 8% 15%  
72 2% 7%  
73 3% 6%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.5%  
76 0.4% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 1.4% 98.9%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 2% 92%  
61 7% 90% Last Result
62 21% 83%  
63 10% 61%  
64 11% 52% Median
65 12% 41%  
66 5% 29%  
67 6% 24%  
68 8% 19%  
69 5% 11%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 0.5% 99.1%  
54 1.5% 98.7%  
55 2% 97%  
56 4% 95%  
57 4% 91% Last Result
58 6% 87%  
59 7% 81%  
60 11% 73%  
61 10% 62% Median
62 11% 52%  
63 8% 40%  
64 10% 32%  
65 4% 22%  
66 7% 18%  
67 4% 11%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.5%  
38 1.4% 98.9%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 95%  
41 6% 92%  
42 9% 86%  
43 5% 77%  
44 8% 72%  
45 14% 64% Median
46 4% 51%  
47 11% 46% Last Result
48 5% 36%  
49 12% 30%  
50 4% 18%  
51 3% 14%  
52 6% 11%  
53 1.3% 5%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 1.3% 99.2%  
23 9% 98%  
24 6% 89%  
25 10% 84%  
26 7% 74%  
27 6% 67%  
28 3% 61% Median
29 10% 58%  
30 12% 48%  
31 10% 37%  
32 5% 27%  
33 8% 21%  
34 3% 13%  
35 8% 10%  
36 0.7% 3%  
37 0.6% 2%  
38 0.4% 1.2%  
39 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations