Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 7–8 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.2–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Venstre 4.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Rødt 4.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 43 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–51
Arbeiderpartiet 48 40 37–43 36–44 35–45 33–46
Senterpartiet 28 22 19–26 18–27 18–29 17–30
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 17 14–19 14–20 13–20 12–22
Venstre 8 9 7–11 6–11 3–12 2–13
Rødt 8 9 7–10 1–11 1–12 1–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 1–7 1–8 1–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100% Last Result
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 95%  
41 14% 90%  
42 9% 76%  
43 21% 67% Median
44 12% 45%  
45 8% 34%  
46 9% 25%  
47 5% 17%  
48 4% 11%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 1.4% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 5% 92%  
38 9% 87%  
39 18% 79%  
40 25% 61% Median
41 15% 36%  
42 6% 21%  
43 8% 15%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.9% 1.3%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.1%  
19 6% 94%  
20 14% 88%  
21 16% 74%  
22 21% 58% Median
23 9% 37%  
24 5% 28%  
25 10% 23%  
26 4% 12%  
27 4% 8%  
28 1.3% 4% Last Result
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 1.0%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 3% 99.3%  
17 11% 96%  
18 14% 85%  
19 17% 71%  
20 27% 54% Median
21 12% 27% Last Result
22 6% 15%  
23 8% 9%  
24 0.7% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 2% 98.6% Last Result
14 8% 96%  
15 14% 88%  
16 14% 74%  
17 18% 60% Median
18 24% 42%  
19 12% 18%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 4% 99.3%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 1.0% 96%  
7 7% 95%  
8 18% 87% Last Result
9 27% 69% Median
10 23% 42%  
11 14% 19%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 2% 94%  
7 7% 92%  
8 19% 85% Last Result
9 42% 66% Median
10 15% 24%  
11 4% 8%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 18% 100%  
2 25% 82%  
3 33% 57% Last Result, Median
4 0% 25%  
5 0% 25%  
6 2% 25%  
7 13% 23%  
8 7% 10%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 4% 99.6%  
2 38% 95%  
3 35% 57% Last Result, Median
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 2% 22%  
7 12% 20%  
8 7% 8%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 99 100% 93–103 92–104 91–105 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 91 96% 86–96 85–97 84–99 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 88 81% 83–92 81–94 80–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 86 66% 81–91 79–93 79–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 82 32% 78–87 77–89 76–90 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 79 8% 75–84 73–85 71–87 69–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 79 5% 75–83 73–84 72–86 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 76 1.0% 71–81 69–82 68–83 65–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 72 0% 68–77 67–79 64–79 62–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 69 0% 64–75 63–76 61–78 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 69 0% 64–73 63–75 62–76 59–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 65 0% 61–70 60–72 59–73 57–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 63 0% 59–68 58–69 57–70 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 62 0% 58–66 57–67 57–69 54–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 52–61 51–62 50–63 47–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 57 0% 53–61 51–61 51–62 48–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 35 0% 31–39 29–41 28–42 26–45

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.5% 99.9%  
89 0.7% 99.4%  
90 0.6% 98.6%  
91 2% 98%  
92 4% 96%  
93 5% 92%  
94 4% 87%  
95 6% 83%  
96 10% 77% Last Result
97 8% 67% Median
98 8% 59%  
99 19% 51%  
100 9% 32%  
101 7% 23%  
102 4% 16%  
103 3% 11%  
104 4% 8%  
105 3% 5%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.2%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.5%  
83 1.2% 98.8%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 7% 94%  
87 5% 87%  
88 6% 82%  
89 9% 76%  
90 10% 66%  
91 13% 57% Median
92 9% 44%  
93 9% 35%  
94 9% 27%  
95 6% 18%  
96 3% 12%  
97 5% 8%  
98 1.0% 4%  
99 1.3% 3%  
100 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.6%  
79 1.0% 98.8%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 2% 93%  
83 5% 91%  
84 5% 86%  
85 9% 81% Majority
86 8% 72%  
87 9% 64%  
88 14% 55% Median
89 11% 41%  
90 7% 30%  
91 10% 22%  
92 5% 12%  
93 2% 7%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.2%  
97 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.5% 99.6%  
78 0.7% 99.1%  
79 4% 98%  
80 4% 94%  
81 4% 90%  
82 4% 86%  
83 10% 82%  
84 6% 72%  
85 13% 66% Median, Majority
86 7% 53%  
87 7% 46%  
88 12% 39%  
89 9% 27%  
90 4% 17%  
91 4% 13%  
92 4% 9%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.4% 2% Last Result
96 0.5% 1.3%  
97 0.5% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 1.5% 99.1%  
76 3% 98%  
77 4% 95%  
78 7% 91%  
79 4% 85%  
80 9% 81%  
81 12% 72%  
82 13% 60% Median
83 7% 47%  
84 8% 40%  
85 11% 32% Majority
86 7% 21%  
87 7% 15%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 6%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 2% 99.0% Last Result
72 1.2% 97%  
73 1.4% 96%  
74 4% 95%  
75 4% 91%  
76 8% 87%  
77 12% 79%  
78 7% 67% Median
79 11% 60%  
80 16% 49%  
81 7% 33%  
82 9% 26%  
83 5% 17%  
84 4% 12%  
85 3% 8% Majority
86 1.3% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.9%  
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 99.4%  
72 1.5% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 91%  
76 6% 86%  
77 10% 80%  
78 7% 70%  
79 20% 62% Median
80 11% 42%  
81 6% 31%  
82 12% 25%  
83 5% 13%  
84 3% 8%  
85 1.3% 5% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.2%  
67 0.5% 98.7%  
68 0.9% 98% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 2% 92%  
72 7% 90%  
73 6% 83%  
74 12% 77%  
75 12% 64% Median
76 7% 52%  
77 15% 45%  
78 9% 30%  
79 7% 21%  
80 4% 15%  
81 5% 11%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.5%  
85 0.5% 1.0% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.4%  
64 1.3% 98.7%  
65 0.8% 97% Last Result
66 2% 97%  
67 3% 95%  
68 5% 92%  
69 6% 87%  
70 10% 80%  
71 15% 71%  
72 7% 55% Median
73 12% 49%  
74 12% 36%  
75 5% 25%  
76 9% 20%  
77 2% 11%  
78 2% 8%  
79 4% 6%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.1%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 11% 89%  
66 6% 79%  
67 7% 72%  
68 12% 66% Median
69 6% 54%  
70 12% 48%  
71 7% 36%  
72 8% 29%  
73 7% 20%  
74 3% 13%  
75 4% 11%  
76 3% 7%  
77 1.1% 4%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 0.5% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 99.1%  
61 0.6% 98.6%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 5% 93%  
65 7% 88%  
66 7% 81%  
67 8% 74%  
68 10% 67%  
69 21% 56% Median
70 8% 36%  
71 5% 28%  
72 6% 22% Last Result
73 7% 16%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 98.8%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 4% 93%  
62 6% 89%  
63 8% 83%  
64 13% 75%  
65 15% 62% Median
66 7% 47%  
67 12% 40%  
68 7% 28%  
69 6% 21%  
70 7% 16%  
71 2% 9%  
72 3% 6%  
73 1.5% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.0%  
76 0.2% 0.7%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 1.2% 99.4%  
57 2% 98% Last Result
58 2% 96%  
59 6% 94%  
60 5% 88%  
61 15% 83%  
62 9% 69%  
63 18% 60% Median
64 9% 42%  
65 11% 33%  
66 5% 22%  
67 6% 17%  
68 3% 11%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.5% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 98%  
57 4% 98%  
58 4% 93%  
59 6% 89%  
60 8% 83%  
61 10% 75%  
62 24% 65% Median
63 10% 41%  
64 13% 31%  
65 7% 18%  
66 3% 12%  
67 4% 8%  
68 1.4% 5%  
69 0.9% 3%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
48 0.8% 99.4%  
49 1.0% 98.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 2% 95%  
52 4% 93%  
53 7% 88%  
54 15% 81%  
55 11% 66% Median
56 7% 55%  
57 16% 48%  
58 8% 32%  
59 6% 23%  
60 6% 17%  
61 4% 11%  
62 4% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 0.7% 99.1%  
51 4% 98%  
52 3% 95%  
53 4% 92%  
54 4% 88%  
55 8% 83%  
56 15% 75%  
57 26% 60% Median
58 10% 34%  
59 8% 24%  
60 6% 16%  
61 7% 11% Last Result
62 3% 4%  
63 0.5% 1.3%  
64 0.5% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.2% 99.5%  
27 0.6% 99.3%  
28 2% 98.7%  
29 2% 97%  
30 4% 95%  
31 7% 91%  
32 15% 84%  
33 5% 69%  
34 12% 64% Median
35 10% 52%  
36 15% 42%  
37 5% 28%  
38 9% 22%  
39 5% 13% Last Result
40 2% 8%  
41 2% 6%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.5% 2%  
44 0.5% 2%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations