Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 8–13 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.3% 24.5–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.6–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.6% 20.9–24.3% 20.5–24.8% 20.1–25.3% 19.3–26.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Rødt 4.7% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Venstre 4.6% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 46 43–51 42–52 42–53 40–54
Arbeiderpartiet 48 41 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 18–23 18–23 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 18 16–21 16–21 15–22 14–24
Senterpartiet 28 19 16–21 15–21 15–22 14–23
Rødt 8 11 9–13 9–14 9–14 8–15
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 2–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.1%  
42 4% 98%  
43 6% 94%  
44 12% 88%  
45 13% 75%  
46 14% 62% Median
47 15% 49%  
48 11% 34%  
49 10% 23%  
50 3% 13%  
51 3% 11%  
52 5% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.5%  
37 3% 98.5%  
38 4% 95%  
39 8% 91%  
40 14% 83%  
41 19% 68% Median
42 19% 50%  
43 13% 31%  
44 6% 18%  
45 4% 12%  
46 4% 8%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.6% 99.7%  
17 4% 99.0%  
18 10% 95%  
19 16% 86%  
20 23% 70% Median
21 18% 47% Last Result
22 15% 28%  
23 9% 13%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100% Last Result
14 0.7% 99.8%  
15 4% 99.2%  
16 8% 95%  
17 16% 87%  
18 28% 71% Median
19 13% 43%  
20 15% 30%  
21 11% 15%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 4% 98%  
16 10% 94%  
17 11% 84%  
18 23% 73%  
19 20% 51% Median
20 19% 31%  
21 8% 12%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 2% 99.8% Last Result
9 13% 98%  
10 20% 85%  
11 25% 65% Median
12 24% 40%  
13 10% 16%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 20% 99.9%  
3 28% 80%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0% 52%  
7 13% 52% Median
8 25% 39% Last Result
9 11% 14%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 17% 100%  
2 58% 83% Median
3 10% 25% Last Result
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 4% 15%  
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0.9% 99.3%  
2 45% 98%  
3 34% 53% Last Result, Median
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 7% 19%  
8 10% 12%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 95 99.6% 90–98 89–99 87–99 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 92 98.7% 89–97 87–99 86–99 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 89 94% 86–95 84–96 83–97 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 85 53% 80–89 79–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 81 19% 77–86 76–87 75–88 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 78 3% 75–83 73–84 72–86 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 79 4% 74–82 73–84 72–85 71–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 77 0.7% 71–79 70–81 69–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.3% 70–79 69–80 69–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 72 0% 68–77 67–77 66–79 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 67 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 66 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 57–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 63 0% 59–68 58–68 57–69 54–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 60 0% 57–64 56–66 55–67 53–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 60 0% 57–64 55–65 54–66 52–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 51–60 50–61 49–62 47–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 28 0% 23–31 21–33 20–34 19–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.6% 99.6% Majority
86 0.6% 99.1%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 6% 92%  
91 6% 86%  
92 10% 81%  
93 9% 71%  
94 9% 62%  
95 12% 52% Median
96 10% 41% Last Result
97 13% 30%  
98 9% 17%  
99 6% 8%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.8% 1.5%  
102 0.5% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.5% 99.8%  
84 0.6% 99.3%  
85 1.0% 98.7% Majority
86 1.4% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 12% 92%  
90 11% 80%  
91 16% 69% Median
92 11% 53%  
93 6% 42%  
94 4% 36%  
95 6% 31%  
96 10% 25%  
97 6% 15%  
98 4% 9%  
99 3% 5%  
100 0.9% 2% Last Result
101 0.3% 0.9%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.3% 0.4%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 1.1% 99.7%  
82 1.0% 98.6%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 12% 87%  
88 17% 75%  
89 15% 58% Median
90 11% 43%  
91 5% 32%  
92 2% 27%  
93 4% 24%  
94 7% 20%  
95 5% 13%  
96 5% 8%  
97 2% 3% Last Result
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.6%  
77 0.7% 99.3%  
78 2% 98.6%  
79 2% 97%  
80 7% 95%  
81 5% 88%  
82 12% 83%  
83 7% 71% Median
84 11% 64%  
85 8% 53% Majority
86 14% 44%  
87 7% 31%  
88 10% 24%  
89 6% 14%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.3% 1.2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 1.1% 99.2%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 7% 94%  
78 8% 87%  
79 7% 79%  
80 17% 72% Median
81 10% 55%  
82 7% 45%  
83 11% 38%  
84 8% 27%  
85 7% 19% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 95%  
75 7% 90%  
76 10% 83%  
77 9% 73%  
78 17% 63% Median
79 11% 46%  
80 6% 35%  
81 9% 29%  
82 6% 19%  
83 5% 14%  
84 6% 9%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.0%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
72 3% 99.4%  
73 5% 96%  
74 6% 91%  
75 8% 85%  
76 3% 77%  
77 6% 75%  
78 5% 69% Median
79 18% 63%  
80 16% 45%  
81 15% 29%  
82 5% 14%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 1.1% 1.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
69 1.4% 98.9%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 94%  
72 9% 90%  
73 10% 80%  
74 5% 70%  
75 6% 66%  
76 6% 59% Median
77 19% 53%  
78 11% 34%  
79 14% 23%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.4% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.3%  
85 0.5% 0.7% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.3%  
68 0.9% 98.6%  
69 5% 98%  
70 7% 93%  
71 13% 86%  
72 12% 73% Last Result, Median
73 10% 62%  
74 11% 52%  
75 7% 40%  
76 9% 33%  
77 8% 24%  
78 6% 16%  
79 4% 10%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.5%  
65 0.7% 98.7% Last Result
66 1.4% 98%  
67 4% 97%  
68 5% 93%  
69 9% 88%  
70 8% 78%  
71 13% 70%  
72 9% 57%  
73 5% 48% Median
74 9% 43%  
75 14% 34%  
76 8% 19%  
77 7% 12%  
78 2% 5%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 1.0% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.5%  
62 4% 97%  
63 7% 93%  
64 9% 86%  
65 8% 77%  
66 12% 69% Median
67 16% 57%  
68 12% 40%  
69 7% 28%  
70 6% 21%  
71 5% 15%  
72 4% 10%  
73 4% 6%  
74 0.7% 3%  
75 1.5% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 0.8% 99.2%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 5% 92%  
63 9% 87%  
64 6% 78%  
65 13% 73% Median
66 15% 60%  
67 9% 45%  
68 11% 37%  
69 8% 25%  
70 7% 17%  
71 5% 10%  
72 1.3% 5%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.2%  
76 0.5% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 98.8%  
57 1.4% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 5% 94%  
60 7% 89%  
61 10% 82%  
62 7% 72%  
63 16% 65% Median
64 11% 49%  
65 10% 38%  
66 10% 28%  
67 6% 18%  
68 8% 12%  
69 3% 5%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.1% 0.5%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.8%  
54 0.8% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 97%  
57 11% 92%  
58 14% 81%  
59 12% 67% Median
60 15% 55%  
61 10% 40% Last Result
62 11% 30%  
63 8% 20%  
64 3% 12%  
65 3% 8%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 1.0% 99.3%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 10% 90%  
58 9% 80%  
59 11% 70%  
60 12% 59% Median
61 16% 47%  
62 10% 31%  
63 9% 21%  
64 5% 11%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
48 1.2% 99.2%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 96%  
51 5% 90%  
52 5% 85%  
53 8% 80%  
54 14% 73%  
55 6% 59%  
56 9% 53% Median
57 18% 43%  
58 8% 26%  
59 7% 18%  
60 4% 11%  
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.7% 99.8%  
20 2% 99.2%  
21 3% 97%  
22 3% 94%  
23 8% 91%  
24 7% 83%  
25 5% 76%  
26 11% 71%  
27 9% 60%  
28 7% 51%  
29 9% 44% Median
30 20% 35%  
31 6% 15%  
32 3% 8%  
33 2% 5%  
34 1.3% 3%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations