Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 7–13 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Høyre 20.4% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.3–14.5%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Venstre 4.6% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Rødt 4.7% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 47 44–51 43–52 41–53 40–55
Høyre 36 41 39–44 38–45 37–46 35–48
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 18–22 18–23 17–24 16–26
Senterpartiet 28 17 15–20 14–21 14–21 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 13 11–16 10–16 10–17 9–18
Venstre 8 9 8–12 8–12 7–12 6–13
Rødt 8 9 7–12 7–12 7–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 2% 97%  
43 5% 95%  
44 7% 91%  
45 9% 84%  
46 7% 75%  
47 19% 68% Median
48 11% 49% Last Result
49 15% 38%  
50 9% 24%  
51 9% 15%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.7%  
36 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
37 1.3% 98%  
38 3% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 16% 87%  
41 26% 72% Median
42 18% 46%  
43 7% 28%  
44 13% 21%  
45 4% 8%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.8% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.0%  
18 17% 95%  
19 21% 78%  
20 21% 57% Median
21 19% 36% Last Result
22 10% 17%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.7%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.9%  
14 7% 98.6%  
15 12% 92%  
16 14% 80%  
17 23% 66% Median
18 21% 43%  
19 10% 22%  
20 6% 11%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.9%  
10 5% 98.8%  
11 8% 93%  
12 22% 86%  
13 23% 64% Last Result, Median
14 16% 41%  
15 13% 25%  
16 7% 12%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0.1% 99.7%  
6 0.4% 99.6%  
7 3% 99.3%  
8 17% 96% Last Result
9 33% 80% Median
10 21% 47%  
11 14% 26%  
12 9% 12%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 0% 99.1%  
4 0% 99.1%  
5 0% 99.1%  
6 0.5% 99.1%  
7 9% 98.6%  
8 16% 90% Last Result
9 28% 74% Median
10 22% 46%  
11 13% 24%  
12 10% 11%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 1.2% 99.7%  
2 48% 98%  
3 33% 51% Last Result, Median
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 3% 17%  
7 10% 15%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 38% 88% Median
3 19% 50% Last Result
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 17% 31%  
7 11% 14%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 91 98% 86–97 86–98 85–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 91 95% 86–95 85–96 83–97 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 87 77% 82–93 81–93 80–94 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 84 46% 81–89 80–90 78–91 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 81 17% 77–86 76–87 74–88 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 78 4% 73–82 73–83 72–85 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 78 3% 73–82 72–83 71–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 74 0.4% 70–79 69–81 68–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.1% 69–78 68–79 66–81 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 71 0.1% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 71 0% 67–75 67–76 65–77 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 68 0% 64–71 63–73 62–75 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 65 0% 61–68 60–69 58–71 57–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 61 0% 58–65 57–67 56–67 54–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 61 0% 56–65 56–65 55–67 53–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 54 0% 51–58 50–60 49–62 48–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 30 0% 26–34 25–35 24–36 24–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.3%  
84 0.9% 98.6%  
85 3% 98% Majority
86 7% 95%  
87 7% 89%  
88 6% 82%  
89 8% 76%  
90 8% 68% Median
91 10% 59%  
92 7% 50%  
93 11% 43%  
94 6% 32%  
95 11% 26%  
96 4% 14% Last Result
97 3% 10%  
98 3% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.8% 1.0%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.6% 99.7%  
82 0.9% 99.2%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 5% 92%  
87 5% 87%  
88 7% 82% Median
89 7% 74%  
90 11% 67%  
91 9% 56%  
92 13% 48%  
93 13% 34%  
94 6% 21%  
95 6% 15%  
96 4% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 1.2% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 1.1% 99.5%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 97%  
82 6% 94%  
83 5% 88%  
84 7% 84%  
85 7% 77% Majority
86 11% 70% Median
87 9% 59%  
88 10% 50%  
89 10% 40%  
90 14% 30%  
91 2% 16%  
92 3% 14%  
93 7% 11%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.2%  
97 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.8% 99.5%  
78 1.4% 98.7%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 8% 91%  
82 6% 83% Median
83 13% 77%  
84 18% 64%  
85 8% 46% Majority
86 10% 38%  
87 10% 28%  
88 7% 18%  
89 3% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.4%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.2% 99.6%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 96%  
77 6% 92%  
78 5% 87%  
79 10% 82% Median
80 6% 72%  
81 17% 66%  
82 14% 49%  
83 6% 35%  
84 12% 29%  
85 6% 17% Majority
86 4% 11%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.9% 1.2%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1% Last Result
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 6% 95%  
74 7% 90%  
75 8% 83%  
76 5% 75%  
77 9% 70% Median
78 15% 61%  
79 19% 46%  
80 9% 27%  
81 6% 18%  
82 3% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 0.9% 5%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 0.4% 1.2%  
87 0.1% 0.8%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 1.2% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 98%  
71 1.1% 98% Last Result
72 3% 97%  
73 6% 94%  
74 4% 88%  
75 6% 84% Median
76 14% 78%  
77 9% 64%  
78 6% 55%  
79 19% 49%  
80 13% 30%  
81 5% 17%  
82 4% 13%  
83 4% 9%  
84 1.4% 5%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.5%  
68 1.2% 98% Last Result
69 2% 97%  
70 7% 95%  
71 14% 88%  
72 7% 73%  
73 9% 67% Median
74 12% 58%  
75 6% 46%  
76 12% 40%  
77 12% 28%  
78 4% 15%  
79 3% 11%  
80 2% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.7% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 1.1% 1.5%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.9% 99.5%  
66 1.3% 98.6%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 5% 92%  
70 4% 87%  
71 10% 82% Median
72 10% 72% Last Result
73 7% 62%  
74 13% 55%  
75 10% 42%  
76 13% 32%  
77 8% 19%  
78 3% 12%  
79 4% 8%  
80 1.2% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 1.5% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 0.9% 99.2%  
65 1.2% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 5% 93%  
68 5% 88%  
69 14% 83% Median
70 8% 69%  
71 15% 61%  
72 16% 47%  
73 9% 31%  
74 3% 22%  
75 6% 19%  
76 7% 14%  
77 3% 7%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 1.2% 99.4%  
65 2% 98% Last Result
66 1.3% 96%  
67 6% 95%  
68 15% 89%  
69 6% 74%  
70 11% 68% Median
71 12% 57%  
72 10% 45%  
73 9% 35%  
74 10% 26%  
75 9% 16%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.9% 99.2%  
62 2% 98%  
63 6% 97%  
64 8% 91%  
65 7% 83%  
66 10% 76%  
67 9% 66% Median
68 10% 57%  
69 16% 47%  
70 14% 31%  
71 9% 17%  
72 2% 8%  
73 1.4% 6%  
74 1.4% 5%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 8% 92%  
62 12% 84%  
63 7% 72%  
64 11% 65% Median
65 10% 54%  
66 15% 44%  
67 12% 29%  
68 10% 17%  
69 3% 8%  
70 1.5% 4%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.1%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 3% 97% Last Result
58 4% 94%  
59 16% 90%  
60 15% 74%  
61 11% 59% Median
62 11% 48%  
63 11% 37%  
64 9% 26%  
65 9% 16%  
66 2% 7%  
67 3% 5%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.4%  
55 2% 98%  
56 7% 96%  
57 4% 89%  
58 10% 86%  
59 6% 76%  
60 12% 70% Median
61 22% 58% Last Result
62 11% 36%  
63 11% 26%  
64 4% 15%  
65 6% 11%  
66 1.4% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
48 0.5% 99.6%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 3% 97%  
51 9% 95%  
52 19% 86%  
53 11% 67% Median
54 10% 56%  
55 13% 46%  
56 11% 33%  
57 7% 22%  
58 5% 15%  
59 3% 10%  
60 3% 7%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 4% 97%  
26 5% 93%  
27 4% 88%  
28 22% 83%  
29 5% 62% Median
30 11% 57%  
31 19% 46%  
32 6% 27%  
33 7% 20%  
34 6% 14%  
35 3% 7%  
36 1.4% 4%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 1.1%  
39 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations