Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagbladet, 13–15 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 24.8% 22.9–26.8% 22.4–27.4% 21.9–27.9% 21.0–28.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 20.8% 19.0–22.7% 18.5–23.2% 18.1–23.7% 17.3–24.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.8% 11.4–14.5% 11.0–14.9% 10.7–15.3% 10.0–16.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 10.4% 9.2–12.0% 8.8–12.4% 8.5–12.8% 7.9–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.4% 8.2–10.9% 7.9–11.3% 7.6–11.7% 7.0–12.4%
Venstre 4.6% 6.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.9% 4.8–8.2% 4.4–8.8%
Rødt 4.7% 5.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.3% 4.4–7.6% 3.9–8.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.7–4.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 44 41–47 40–48 39–49 37–52
Arbeiderpartiet 48 39 36–41 35–42 34–44 32–47
Fremskrittspartiet 21 22 19–26 19–27 18–28 17–30
Senterpartiet 28 18 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 14–19 13–19 12–20 11–22
Venstre 8 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–16
Rødt 8 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 1–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–3 0–6 0–7 0–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 1.1% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 11% 94%  
42 13% 83%  
43 13% 70%  
44 16% 57% Median
45 11% 40%  
46 14% 30%  
47 8% 15%  
48 5% 7%  
49 0.9% 3%  
50 0.5% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.2%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 99.0%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 97%  
36 15% 94%  
37 10% 79%  
38 16% 68%  
39 12% 52% Median
40 14% 40%  
41 17% 26%  
42 4% 9%  
43 1.4% 4%  
44 1.2% 3%  
45 0.8% 2%  
46 0.4% 1.0%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.9% 100%  
18 4% 99.1%  
19 10% 95%  
20 13% 85%  
21 15% 72% Last Result
22 18% 58% Median
23 11% 40%  
24 11% 29%  
25 5% 17%  
26 5% 12%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 1.2%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.8%  
15 8% 98%  
16 7% 91%  
17 16% 84%  
18 24% 68% Median
19 15% 43%  
20 11% 28%  
21 10% 17%  
22 3% 7%  
23 2% 4%  
24 0.8% 2%  
25 0.2% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 1.0%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.7%  
12 2% 98.9%  
13 4% 97% Last Result
14 12% 93%  
15 19% 81%  
16 21% 62% Median
17 16% 42%  
18 13% 25%  
19 7% 12%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.7% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.2% Last Result
9 14% 96%  
10 20% 82%  
11 27% 63% Median
12 20% 36%  
13 10% 16%  
14 3% 5%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0.1% 99.4%  
7 2% 99.3%  
8 11% 97% Last Result
9 18% 86%  
10 30% 68% Median
11 22% 38%  
12 10% 16%  
13 4% 6%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 8% 91%  
2 63% 82% Median
3 15% 20% Last Result
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.9% 5%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.9% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 53% 99.1% Median
2 39% 46%  
3 3% 6% Last Result
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0.5% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 98 100% 92–103 91–104 90–105 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 85 58% 80–90 79–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 84 41% 79–88 77–89 77–90 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 81 17% 76–86 75–87 74–88 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 79 9% 75–84 73–85 72–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 77 2% 73–81 72–83 71–84 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 77 2% 73–82 71–83 70–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 75 0.5% 71–79 70–80 69–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 74 0.1% 69–77 68–79 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 67 0% 63–71 61–72 60–73 58–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 66 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 58–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–68 53–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 59 0% 55–63 55–64 54–66 52–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 57 0% 53–61 52–62 52–63 50–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 49–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 55 0% 52–58 50–59 49–60 47–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 31 0% 28–35 27–36 26–38 25–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.7%  
89 0.9% 99.3%  
90 3% 98%  
91 2% 95%  
92 5% 94%  
93 3% 88%  
94 10% 85%  
95 9% 75%  
96 7% 66% Last Result
97 8% 59% Median
98 5% 51%  
99 8% 46%  
100 8% 39%  
101 12% 31%  
102 6% 19%  
103 4% 12%  
104 3% 8%  
105 2% 5%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.3%  
108 0.6% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.7% 99.1%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 4% 93%  
81 4% 89%  
82 6% 85%  
83 12% 78%  
84 9% 66% Median
85 10% 58% Majority
86 13% 48%  
87 10% 35%  
88 12% 26%  
89 4% 14%  
90 3% 10%  
91 4% 7%  
92 2% 3%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.7% 99.3%  
76 1.1% 98.6%  
77 3% 98%  
78 4% 95%  
79 4% 91%  
80 5% 87%  
81 11% 82%  
82 9% 71%  
83 11% 62% Median
84 9% 51%  
85 15% 41% Majority
86 7% 26%  
87 9% 19%  
88 3% 10%  
89 3% 7%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.8% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
72 0.5% 99.3%  
73 1.2% 98.9%  
74 1.4% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 4% 94%  
77 10% 90%  
78 5% 80%  
79 11% 75%  
80 9% 64% Median
81 11% 55%  
82 10% 44%  
83 9% 34%  
84 8% 25%  
85 5% 17% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 99.0%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 4% 95%  
75 9% 91%  
76 7% 82%  
77 10% 76%  
78 5% 65%  
79 11% 61% Median
80 13% 50%  
81 6% 37%  
82 12% 30%  
83 4% 18%  
84 6% 15%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 1.4% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 96%  
73 5% 92%  
74 11% 87%  
75 12% 76%  
76 6% 64% Median
77 9% 58%  
78 12% 49%  
79 16% 38%  
80 8% 22%  
81 7% 15%  
82 2% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.5% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 0.6% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 10% 90%  
74 4% 80%  
75 7% 76%  
76 10% 69%  
77 12% 59% Median
78 13% 47%  
79 7% 34%  
80 9% 27%  
81 6% 18%  
82 5% 13%  
83 4% 8%  
84 1.3% 4%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 1.1% 98.7%  
69 3% 98%  
70 3% 95%  
71 7% 92%  
72 7% 85%  
73 16% 79%  
74 5% 63% Median
75 9% 58%  
76 15% 48%  
77 14% 33%  
78 5% 20%  
79 7% 14%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 6% 89%  
71 16% 83%  
72 8% 68%  
73 8% 60% Median
74 11% 51%  
75 17% 40%  
76 8% 23%  
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 1.1% 99.0%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 7% 91%  
64 7% 84%  
65 11% 77%  
66 11% 66% Median
67 16% 54%  
68 12% 38%  
69 9% 27%  
70 6% 17%  
71 4% 11%  
72 2% 6% Last Result
73 2% 4%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 1.0% 99.1%  
60 2% 98%  
61 5% 96%  
62 6% 92%  
63 8% 86%  
64 11% 78%  
65 8% 67%  
66 13% 59% Median
67 13% 46%  
68 10% 33%  
69 6% 22%  
70 6% 16%  
71 5% 10%  
72 1.4% 6%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 1.1% 1.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.3%  
55 2% 98.5%  
56 4% 97%  
57 8% 92%  
58 7% 85%  
59 13% 78%  
60 12% 65% Median
61 10% 53%  
62 9% 43%  
63 14% 34%  
64 8% 20%  
65 5% 12%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.9% 3%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.0%  
54 2% 98%  
55 6% 95%  
56 8% 89%  
57 13% 82%  
58 7% 68%  
59 17% 62% Median
60 10% 45%  
61 8% 34%  
62 14% 27%  
63 3% 13%  
64 5% 9%  
65 2% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 98.9%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 95%  
54 9% 90%  
55 10% 81%  
56 13% 71%  
57 12% 58% Median
58 11% 46%  
59 13% 35%  
60 11% 22%  
61 3% 10%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 2% 97%  
53 6% 95%  
54 8% 89%  
55 8% 81%  
56 21% 73%  
57 9% 52% Median
58 11% 44%  
59 10% 33%  
60 12% 22%  
61 3% 11%  
62 3% 7%  
63 3% 5%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 0.9% 99.2%  
49 1.5% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 4% 94%  
52 9% 90%  
53 12% 82%  
54 11% 69%  
55 18% 58% Median
56 9% 40%  
57 16% 31%  
58 5% 15%  
59 5% 10%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.1% 2% Last Result
62 0.6% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.6%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 3% 97%  
28 8% 94%  
29 11% 86%  
30 14% 75%  
31 12% 61% Median
32 12% 49%  
33 10% 37%  
34 11% 27%  
35 8% 16%  
36 3% 8%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.3% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations