Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 14–20 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 23.3% 21.6–25.1% 21.1–25.6% 20.7–26.1% 19.9–27.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.7% 21.0–24.5% 20.5–25.0% 20.1–25.4% 19.4–26.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.1% 8.6–13.8%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 10.1% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–12.0%
Rødt 4.7% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Venstre 4.6% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 41 39–45 38–45 37–46 35–48
Arbeiderpartiet 48 42 38–46 38–47 37–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–21 17–22 16–23 15–24
Senterpartiet 28 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 14–19 13–19 12–20 11–21
Rødt 8 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 9–18
Venstre 8 9 8–11 7–12 3–12 3–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 2–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.5% Last Result
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 10% 93%  
40 14% 83%  
41 22% 69% Median
42 14% 47%  
43 13% 33%  
44 8% 19%  
45 7% 11%  
46 3% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 8% 97%  
39 8% 89%  
40 16% 80%  
41 13% 64%  
42 5% 51% Median
43 9% 46%  
44 11% 36%  
45 13% 26%  
46 7% 13%  
47 2% 6%  
48 3% 4% Last Result
49 0.8% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.1%  
17 8% 97%  
18 18% 89%  
19 25% 71% Median
20 21% 46%  
21 16% 25% Last Result
22 5% 9%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.7%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.6%  
15 8% 98%  
16 13% 90%  
17 20% 77%  
18 17% 57% Median
19 22% 40%  
20 10% 18%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.4% 3%  
23 0.9% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.2%  
13 4% 97% Last Result
14 11% 93%  
15 13% 82%  
16 33% 69% Median
17 15% 36%  
18 9% 21%  
19 8% 12%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.1% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100% Last Result
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.4%  
11 11% 97%  
12 19% 86%  
13 29% 67% Median
14 17% 38%  
15 12% 21%  
16 7% 9%  
17 1.4% 3%  
18 0.9% 1.2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0.3% 97%  
7 6% 97%  
8 17% 91% Last Result
9 32% 74% Median
10 23% 42%  
11 12% 19%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.7% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 35% 88%  
3 20% 53% Last Result, Median
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 2% 34%  
7 20% 32%  
8 8% 12%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0.9% 99.5%  
2 37% 98.5%  
3 35% 61% Last Result, Median
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 2% 26%  
7 14% 24%  
8 9% 11%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 94 98.9% 89–98 87–99 86–100 84–103
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 98% 88–96 86–97 85–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 89 90% 84–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 84 47% 79–88 78–89 76–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 80 12% 76–85 74–85 74–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 78 3% 73–82 72–84 71–85 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 76 0.5% 72–80 71–82 70–83 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 76 0.5% 71–79 70–81 68–82 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 74 0% 70–78 68–79 67–81 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 70 0% 66–74 65–76 64–76 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 68 0% 62–72 61–74 60–75 58–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 64 0% 59–68 58–69 57–70 56–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–67 54–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 60 0% 56–64 55–65 55–66 53–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 58 0% 54–62 54–63 53–64 51–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 54 0% 50–59 50–59 49–60 47–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 31 0% 27–35 26–36 25–37 23–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.7% 99.6%  
85 0.8% 98.9% Majority
86 1.2% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 3% 94%  
89 6% 91%  
90 9% 85%  
91 9% 76%  
92 7% 67% Median
93 9% 60%  
94 11% 51%  
95 9% 40%  
96 15% 31%  
97 2% 16%  
98 8% 14%  
99 1.4% 6%  
100 2% 4% Last Result
101 0.9% 2%  
102 0.7% 1.3%  
103 0.2% 0.6%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 1.0% 99.0%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 4% 94%  
88 5% 90%  
89 6% 85%  
90 12% 79% Median
91 8% 67%  
92 21% 59%  
93 9% 38%  
94 7% 30%  
95 9% 23%  
96 5% 14% Last Result
97 6% 9%  
98 1.2% 3%  
99 0.7% 2%  
100 0.8% 0.9%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.8% 99.5%  
82 2% 98.6%  
83 3% 97%  
84 4% 94%  
85 4% 90% Majority
86 7% 86%  
87 13% 79%  
88 8% 66%  
89 10% 58% Median
90 9% 48%  
91 7% 39%  
92 8% 32%  
93 11% 23%  
94 2% 12%  
95 5% 10%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.5% 3% Last Result
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 2% 99.2%  
77 1.4% 97%  
78 4% 96%  
79 5% 93%  
80 7% 87%  
81 5% 80%  
82 9% 75% Median
83 14% 66%  
84 5% 52%  
85 10% 47% Majority
86 15% 37%  
87 6% 22%  
88 8% 15%  
89 3% 7%  
90 1.5% 4%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.4%  
93 0.5% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 0.9% 98.5%  
74 3% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 5% 90%  
77 8% 85%  
78 12% 77%  
79 8% 65% Median
80 12% 57%  
81 11% 45%  
82 6% 34%  
83 13% 28%  
84 2% 15%  
85 8% 12% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1% Last Result
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 1.0% 99.3%  
71 2% 98% Last Result
72 3% 96%  
73 4% 92%  
74 7% 89%  
75 6% 82% Median
76 14% 76%  
77 8% 62%  
78 10% 54%  
79 13% 45%  
80 7% 32%  
81 12% 25%  
82 4% 13%  
83 2% 9%  
84 4% 7%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 1.0% 99.4%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 97%  
72 7% 93%  
73 9% 85%  
74 9% 76%  
75 13% 67%  
76 5% 54% Median
77 10% 48%  
78 11% 38%  
79 8% 27%  
80 11% 19%  
81 3% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.2%  
68 2% 98.9%  
69 1.3% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 9% 94%  
72 7% 85% Last Result
73 9% 78%  
74 10% 70% Median
75 6% 60%  
76 9% 54%  
77 21% 44%  
78 7% 24%  
79 7% 16%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.8% 1.3%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.3%  
67 2% 98.8%  
68 3% 97% Last Result
69 4% 94%  
70 3% 90%  
71 9% 87%  
72 8% 78% Median
73 20% 70%  
74 8% 50%  
75 11% 42%  
76 6% 31%  
77 10% 25%  
78 9% 16%  
79 3% 7%  
80 0.9% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 0.7% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96% Last Result
66 4% 93%  
67 8% 90%  
68 8% 81%  
69 10% 73% Median
70 23% 64%  
71 11% 41%  
72 9% 30%  
73 5% 21%  
74 6% 16%  
75 3% 9%  
76 4% 6%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.3%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 3% 97%  
62 4% 94%  
63 7% 90%  
64 5% 82%  
65 6% 77%  
66 5% 71% Median
67 15% 66%  
68 4% 51%  
69 10% 47%  
70 16% 37%  
71 7% 21%  
72 5% 14%  
73 3% 9%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.2% 4%  
76 1.5% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.7%  
57 3% 99.1%  
58 3% 96%  
59 7% 93%  
60 8% 86%  
61 7% 78%  
62 9% 70%  
63 8% 61% Median
64 8% 53%  
65 9% 46%  
66 7% 36%  
67 16% 29%  
68 5% 13%  
69 5% 8%  
70 1.2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 1.2% 99.6%  
55 1.2% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 6% 95% Last Result
58 7% 89%  
59 8% 82%  
60 14% 74% Median
61 22% 60%  
62 17% 38%  
63 5% 21%  
64 3% 17%  
65 5% 14%  
66 6% 9%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 99.0%  
55 6% 98%  
56 7% 92%  
57 13% 86%  
58 9% 73%  
59 11% 64%  
60 12% 54% Median
61 6% 42%  
62 8% 35%  
63 6% 27%  
64 15% 21%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.7%  
52 1.1% 99.3%  
53 3% 98%  
54 7% 96%  
55 7% 89%  
56 12% 81%  
57 14% 70%  
58 6% 56% Median
59 11% 50%  
60 14% 38%  
61 11% 24% Last Result
62 4% 13%  
63 5% 8%  
64 0.8% 3%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
48 1.4% 99.1%  
49 2% 98%  
50 7% 96%  
51 4% 88%  
52 9% 84%  
53 18% 74% Median
54 7% 56%  
55 8% 49%  
56 11% 42%  
57 11% 30%  
58 8% 20%  
59 8% 12%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 0.9% 99.4%  
25 1.0% 98.5%  
26 4% 97%  
27 6% 94%  
28 10% 88%  
29 7% 78%  
30 12% 70% Median
31 24% 58%  
32 8% 34%  
33 6% 26%  
34 7% 20%  
35 5% 13%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations