Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 27 December 2021–3 January 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 24.7% | 23.0–26.6% | 22.5–27.1% | 22.1–27.6% | 21.2–28.5% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 21.1% | 19.5–22.9% | 19.0–23.4% | 18.6–23.8% | 17.8–24.7% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 13.9% | 12.5–15.4% | 12.1–15.9% | 11.8–16.3% | 11.2–17.0% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.9% | 7.5–11.2% | 7.0–11.9% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.9% | 7.5–11.2% | 7.0–11.9% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.8–7.9% | 4.4–8.4% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.3–7.0% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.2–4.5% | 2.0–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 40–49 | 38–50 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 38 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 34–47 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 25 | 21–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 | 19–31 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 16 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 11–20 | 10–21 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| Rødt | 8 | 11 | 9–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| Venstre | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 3–11 | 3–11 | 2–12 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 2 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–7 | 1–7 | 0–8 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 6% | 98% | |
| 41 | 12% | 92% | |
| 42 | 11% | 80% | |
| 43 | 12% | 69% | |
| 44 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 45 | 16% | 37% | |
| 46 | 9% | 21% | |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 2% | 5% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 24% | 93% | |
| 38 | 23% | 69% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 46% | |
| 40 | 8% | 33% | |
| 41 | 11% | 25% | |
| 42 | 4% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 10% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 10% | 95% | Last Result |
| 22 | 6% | 85% | |
| 23 | 17% | 79% | |
| 24 | 11% | 63% | |
| 25 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 26 | 14% | 37% | |
| 27 | 8% | 23% | |
| 28 | 8% | 15% | |
| 29 | 4% | 7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 4% | 97% | |
| 13 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 14 | 15% | 85% | |
| 15 | 10% | 70% | |
| 16 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 38% | |
| 18 | 13% | 26% | |
| 19 | 9% | 13% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 13% | 97% | |
| 15 | 27% | 84% | |
| 16 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 41% | |
| 18 | 9% | 17% | |
| 19 | 4% | 8% | |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 9 | 17% | 92% | |
| 10 | 20% | 75% | |
| 11 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 32% | |
| 13 | 8% | 11% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 3% | 92% | |
| 7 | 16% | 89% | |
| 8 | 29% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 26% | 45% | |
| 10 | 13% | 18% | |
| 11 | 3% | 5% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% | 100% | |
| 2 | 43% | 75% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 32% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0% | 15% | |
| 6 | 5% | 15% | |
| 7 | 6% | 9% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 2 | 68% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 19% | 28% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 4% | 9% | |
| 7 | 4% | 6% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 95 | 99.5% | 90–100 | 89–102 | 88–103 | 84–104 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 84 | 45% | 80–89 | 79–91 | 77–92 | 75–94 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 71 | 82 | 22% | 77–87 | 77–88 | 75–89 | 73–90 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 97 | 82 | 19% | 77–86 | 75–88 | 74–89 | 73–91 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 79 | 9% | 75–84 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 69–89 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 95 | 76 | 1.3% | 72–81 | 71–83 | 70–84 | 68–87 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 77 | 2% | 72–81 | 71–83 | 70–83 | 67–86 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 74 | 0.2% | 70–78 | 69–80 | 67–81 | 66–83 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 89 | 71 | 0% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–80 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 68 | 0% | 64–72 | 62–74 | 62–76 | 60–77 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 69 | 0% | 64–73 | 64–74 | 62–75 | 61–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 82 | 60 | 0% | 56–65 | 55–67 | 55–68 | 53–70 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 57 | 0% | 54–62 | 53–63 | 53–65 | 51–67 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 55 | 0% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–61 | 49–63 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 55 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–60 | 50–61 | 48–63 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 54 | 0% | 51–58 | 50–59 | 48–61 | 46–62 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 27 | 0% | 24–30 | 22–32 | 21–32 | 20–34 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 88 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 97% | |
| 90 | 5% | 93% | |
| 91 | 3% | 88% | |
| 92 | 12% | 85% | |
| 93 | 7% | 73% | |
| 94 | 11% | 66% | |
| 95 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 96 | 12% | 44% | Last Result |
| 97 | 5% | 32% | |
| 98 | 7% | 27% | |
| 99 | 7% | 20% | |
| 100 | 3% | 13% | |
| 101 | 4% | 10% | |
| 102 | 2% | 6% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | |
| 104 | 2% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 78 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 79 | 3% | 96% | |
| 80 | 5% | 92% | |
| 81 | 13% | 87% | |
| 82 | 8% | 75% | |
| 83 | 11% | 67% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 56% | |
| 85 | 8% | 45% | Majority |
| 86 | 12% | 37% | |
| 87 | 6% | 25% | |
| 88 | 6% | 19% | |
| 89 | 5% | 13% | |
| 90 | 3% | 9% | |
| 91 | 3% | 6% | |
| 92 | 2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 10% | 95% | |
| 78 | 9% | 85% | |
| 79 | 5% | 76% | |
| 80 | 8% | 71% | |
| 81 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 82 | 17% | 54% | |
| 83 | 6% | 37% | |
| 84 | 9% | 31% | |
| 85 | 5% | 22% | Majority |
| 86 | 7% | 17% | |
| 87 | 4% | 10% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 96% | |
| 76 | 3% | 94% | |
| 77 | 4% | 91% | |
| 78 | 4% | 87% | |
| 79 | 12% | 82% | |
| 80 | 9% | 70% | |
| 81 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 82 | 12% | 53% | |
| 83 | 7% | 40% | |
| 84 | 14% | 33% | |
| 85 | 4% | 19% | Majority |
| 86 | 8% | 16% | |
| 87 | 2% | 8% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 89 | 3% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 96% | |
| 75 | 11% | 93% | |
| 76 | 8% | 82% | |
| 77 | 8% | 74% | |
| 78 | 7% | 65% | |
| 79 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 80 | 13% | 44% | |
| 81 | 9% | 31% | |
| 82 | 6% | 22% | |
| 83 | 5% | 16% | |
| 84 | 3% | 11% | |
| 85 | 5% | 9% | Majority |
| 86 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 12% | 94% | |
| 73 | 8% | 82% | |
| 74 | 6% | 74% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 68% | |
| 76 | 16% | 58% | |
| 77 | 10% | 42% | |
| 78 | 5% | 32% | |
| 79 | 9% | 27% | |
| 80 | 8% | 18% | |
| 81 | 2% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 8% | |
| 83 | 2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 93% | |
| 73 | 12% | 89% | |
| 74 | 7% | 76% | |
| 75 | 10% | 70% | |
| 76 | 9% | 59% | |
| 77 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 78 | 13% | 38% | |
| 79 | 8% | 25% | |
| 80 | 4% | 17% | |
| 81 | 4% | 13% | |
| 82 | 2% | 9% | |
| 83 | 4% | 7% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 3% | 95% | |
| 70 | 15% | 92% | |
| 71 | 7% | 77% | |
| 72 | 7% | 70% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 64% | |
| 74 | 16% | 51% | |
| 75 | 10% | 35% | |
| 76 | 6% | 25% | |
| 77 | 7% | 20% | |
| 78 | 5% | 13% | |
| 79 | 2% | 8% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 14% | 88% | |
| 69 | 9% | 74% | |
| 70 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 71 | 8% | 55% | |
| 72 | 18% | 46% | |
| 73 | 8% | 28% | |
| 74 | 7% | 21% | |
| 75 | 4% | 13% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 3% | 92% | |
| 65 | 6% | 89% | |
| 66 | 17% | 83% | |
| 67 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 68 | 9% | 55% | |
| 69 | 14% | 46% | |
| 70 | 9% | 32% | |
| 71 | 6% | 23% | |
| 72 | 8% | 17% | Last Result |
| 73 | 2% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 8% | 95% | |
| 65 | 10% | 87% | |
| 66 | 6% | 76% | |
| 67 | 7% | 70% | |
| 68 | 13% | 63% | |
| 69 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 70 | 14% | 37% | |
| 71 | 8% | 24% | |
| 72 | 5% | 16% | |
| 73 | 5% | 11% | |
| 74 | 2% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 12% | 95% | |
| 57 | 6% | 82% | |
| 58 | 9% | 76% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 68% | |
| 60 | 11% | 54% | |
| 61 | 8% | 43% | |
| 62 | 9% | 35% | |
| 63 | 7% | 26% | |
| 64 | 5% | 19% | |
| 65 | 4% | 14% | |
| 66 | 4% | 10% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 68 | 3% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 4% | 98% | |
| 54 | 11% | 94% | |
| 55 | 10% | 83% | |
| 56 | 9% | 73% | Median |
| 57 | 18% | 63% | |
| 58 | 11% | 46% | |
| 59 | 7% | 35% | |
| 60 | 9% | 28% | |
| 61 | 7% | 19% | |
| 62 | 5% | 12% | |
| 63 | 3% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 5% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 5% | 97% | |
| 52 | 13% | 93% | |
| 53 | 9% | 80% | |
| 54 | 12% | 70% | Median |
| 55 | 17% | 58% | |
| 56 | 14% | 41% | |
| 57 | 6% | 27% | |
| 58 | 9% | 21% | |
| 59 | 7% | 12% | |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98% | |
| 51 | 5% | 96% | |
| 52 | 8% | 90% | |
| 53 | 17% | 82% | |
| 54 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 55 | 15% | 54% | |
| 56 | 12% | 38% | |
| 57 | 12% | 26% | |
| 58 | 5% | 14% | |
| 59 | 4% | 10% | |
| 60 | 2% | 6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 62 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 50 | 4% | 96% | |
| 51 | 6% | 92% | |
| 52 | 13% | 87% | |
| 53 | 9% | 74% | |
| 54 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 55 | 12% | 45% | |
| 56 | 10% | 33% | |
| 57 | 6% | 23% | |
| 58 | 8% | 17% | |
| 59 | 5% | 9% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 2% | 97% | |
| 23 | 3% | 95% | |
| 24 | 8% | 92% | |
| 25 | 20% | 84% | |
| 26 | 8% | 64% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 55% | |
| 28 | 19% | 40% | |
| 29 | 7% | 21% | |
| 30 | 4% | 14% | |
| 31 | 4% | 10% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 27 December 2021–3 January 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 943
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.54%