Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 4–5 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.6% 21.5–28.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.0% 20.9–27.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Rødt 4.7% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 44 41–47 41–49 40–49 38–51
Arbeiderpartiet 48 45 42–49 41–49 40–50 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–22 17–22 16–23 15–24
Senterpartiet 28 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 12–17 12–18 11–18 10–20
Rødt 8 12 11–15 10–15 9–16 9–17
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 1.2% 99.4%  
40 2% 98%  
41 9% 96%  
42 11% 86%  
43 12% 75%  
44 14% 63% Median
45 17% 49%  
46 15% 32%  
47 9% 17%  
48 3% 8%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.4%  
40 1.0% 98%  
41 6% 97%  
42 6% 91%  
43 11% 85%  
44 11% 74%  
45 16% 63% Median
46 9% 47%  
47 12% 37%  
48 9% 25% Last Result
49 11% 16%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.7% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.8% 99.6%  
16 4% 98.9%  
17 10% 95%  
18 27% 85%  
19 19% 58% Median
20 15% 38%  
21 13% 23% Last Result
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.5%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.0%  
15 13% 96%  
16 15% 83%  
17 16% 68%  
18 21% 52% Median
19 17% 31%  
20 6% 14%  
21 7% 8%  
22 0.5% 1.1%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 3% 98%  
12 8% 95%  
13 13% 88% Last Result
14 18% 75%  
15 19% 56% Median
16 16% 37%  
17 14% 21%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100% Last Result
9 3% 99.8%  
10 6% 97%  
11 19% 91%  
12 23% 71% Median
13 25% 48%  
14 13% 23%  
15 7% 10%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 12% 100%  
3 17% 88%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 2% 71%  
7 20% 69% Median
8 28% 50% Last Result
9 16% 22%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.7% 99.8%  
2 32% 99.1%  
3 26% 67% Last Result, Median
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 3% 41%  
7 17% 38%  
8 16% 21%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 13% 100%  
2 39% 87% Median
3 21% 48% Last Result
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 2% 27%  
7 13% 25%  
8 10% 12%  
9 1.3% 1.5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 94 99.7% 89–99 88–100 86–100 85–103
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 98.5% 87–97 86–98 85–99 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 90 94% 85–95 84–97 83–97 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 86 63% 81–91 80–92 79–92 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 81 19% 77–86 76–87 74–88 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 78 3% 73–83 72–84 71–85 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 78 1.1% 74–82 72–83 71–84 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 76 1.0% 71–80 71–82 69–83 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 75 0% 70–79 69–81 68–82 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 71 0% 66–77 64–78 63–78 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 70 0% 65–74 64–75 64–76 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 68 0% 63–73 62–74 61–75 59–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 64 0% 60–67 59–69 58–70 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 60 0% 56–64 56–65 55–66 53–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 55 0% 51–60 50–61 49–62 46–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 29 0% 23–33 22–34 21–35 20–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.7% 99.7% Majority
86 2% 99.0%  
87 1.2% 97%  
88 4% 96%  
89 5% 92%  
90 6% 87%  
91 9% 81%  
92 11% 73% Median
93 9% 61%  
94 12% 52%  
95 9% 40%  
96 4% 31%  
97 9% 27%  
98 7% 18%  
99 5% 11%  
100 4% 6% Last Result
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.1%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.3% 99.3%  
84 0.4% 99.0%  
85 3% 98.5% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 4% 94%  
88 6% 89%  
89 6% 83%  
90 13% 77%  
91 7% 64% Median
92 11% 58%  
93 12% 47%  
94 11% 35%  
95 6% 24%  
96 4% 18% Last Result
97 8% 13%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.4% 3%  
100 1.3% 2%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.2% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.5%  
83 2% 98.9%  
84 3% 97%  
85 4% 94% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 10% 84%  
88 8% 74%  
89 11% 66%  
90 10% 55% Median
91 12% 46%  
92 7% 34%  
93 6% 27%  
94 7% 21%  
95 5% 14%  
96 4% 10%  
97 4% 5% Last Result
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.5%  
78 1.3% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 5% 96%  
81 4% 91%  
82 4% 87%  
83 9% 83% Median
84 11% 73%  
85 9% 63% Majority
86 11% 54%  
87 9% 43%  
88 5% 33%  
89 12% 29%  
90 6% 17%  
91 4% 11%  
92 5% 7%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 95%  
77 7% 91%  
78 7% 84%  
79 8% 77%  
80 9% 69% Median
81 16% 60%  
82 7% 44%  
83 8% 37%  
84 10% 29%  
85 6% 19% Majority
86 5% 13%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.5% 1.2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.5%  
71 2% 98.8% Last Result
72 3% 96%  
73 6% 93%  
74 4% 87%  
75 8% 82% Median
76 6% 74%  
77 10% 69%  
78 14% 59%  
79 8% 45%  
80 9% 37%  
81 10% 27%  
82 5% 17%  
83 4% 12%  
84 5% 7%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 2% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 6% 90%  
75 11% 84%  
76 10% 74%  
77 11% 63%  
78 9% 52% Median
79 13% 43%  
80 11% 30%  
81 7% 20%  
82 3% 12%  
83 6% 9%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.5% 1.1% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 2% 97%  
71 8% 95%  
72 4% 87% Last Result
73 5% 83%  
74 6% 78% Median
75 15% 72%  
76 10% 57%  
77 10% 46%  
78 8% 36%  
79 11% 29%  
80 8% 17%  
81 4% 10%  
82 2% 6%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.4% 1.4%  
85 0.4% 1.0% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.5%  
67 0.8% 99.2%  
68 2% 98% Last Result
69 4% 96%  
70 6% 92%  
71 9% 86%  
72 9% 77%  
73 5% 68% Median
74 10% 63%  
75 12% 53%  
76 12% 40%  
77 8% 29%  
78 8% 21%  
79 5% 13%  
80 2% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 1.5% 98.8%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 4% 91%  
67 9% 87%  
68 8% 78% Median
69 7% 71%  
70 8% 64%  
71 11% 56%  
72 11% 45%  
73 4% 34%  
74 6% 30%  
75 7% 24%  
76 5% 17%  
77 6% 12%  
78 4% 6%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 5% 98%  
65 4% 93% Last Result
66 5% 90%  
67 9% 84%  
68 10% 75%  
69 10% 65%  
70 7% 54% Median
71 12% 47%  
72 11% 35%  
73 8% 24%  
74 8% 16%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0.4% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 1.3% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 4% 96%  
63 4% 92%  
64 10% 88%  
65 8% 78%  
66 9% 70% Median
67 10% 60%  
68 11% 51%  
69 12% 40%  
70 9% 28%  
71 6% 18%  
72 2% 12%  
73 4% 10%  
74 1.1% 6%  
75 4% 5%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
58 2% 98.8%  
59 6% 97%  
60 7% 91%  
61 12% 84%  
62 8% 72%  
63 12% 64% Median
64 20% 51%  
65 8% 32%  
66 11% 24%  
67 5% 13%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.4% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.2%  
57 1.3% 98.6%  
58 5% 97%  
59 5% 92%  
60 8% 87%  
61 10% 80%  
62 15% 69%  
63 13% 54% Median
64 11% 41%  
65 8% 30%  
66 7% 21%  
67 9% 15%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 1.0% 98.9%  
55 3% 98%  
56 7% 95%  
57 6% 88%  
58 11% 82%  
59 13% 72%  
60 13% 59% Median
61 14% 46% Last Result
62 8% 32%  
63 11% 24%  
64 6% 12%  
65 2% 6%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.9% 1.2%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
48 1.3% 99.1%  
49 3% 98%  
50 4% 95%  
51 6% 91%  
52 6% 85%  
53 9% 79%  
54 10% 69% Median
55 10% 59%  
56 11% 49%  
57 12% 38%  
58 7% 27%  
59 6% 20%  
60 4% 14%  
61 7% 10%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.7%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 3% 97%  
23 5% 94%  
24 3% 89%  
25 6% 86%  
26 7% 80%  
27 9% 73%  
28 6% 63% Median
29 16% 58%  
30 11% 42%  
31 10% 31%  
32 6% 20%  
33 7% 14%  
34 3% 7%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.6% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1% Last Result
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations