Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 3–7 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.5–26.0% 21.1–26.4% 20.3–27.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 21.7% 20.1–23.5% 19.6–24.0% 19.2–24.4% 18.5–25.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.3%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.7%
Rødt 4.7% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.4%
Venstre 4.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 42 39–45 39–46 38–47 36–48
Arbeiderpartiet 48 41 38–44 37–46 36–47 35–48
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–21 17–22 17–23 16–26
Senterpartiet 28 18 16–22 16–23 15–24 14–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 14 12–17 11–18 11–18 10–20
Rødt 8 10 8–11 8–12 7–13 7–14
Venstre 8 8 7–10 6–10 3–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 3–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 1–3 0–3 0–6 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
37 1.1% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 8% 96%  
40 10% 88%  
41 15% 78%  
42 20% 63% Median
43 9% 42%  
44 16% 34%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.2% 99.6%  
36 2% 98%  
37 3% 97%  
38 5% 93%  
39 14% 89%  
40 23% 75%  
41 25% 52% Median
42 12% 27%  
43 5% 15%  
44 4% 10%  
45 1.4% 7%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 0.7% 99.7%  
17 9% 99.0%  
18 26% 90%  
19 21% 64% Median
20 21% 43%  
21 16% 22% Last Result
22 3% 6%  
23 1.3% 3%  
24 0.8% 2%  
25 0.3% 1.1%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.2%  
16 16% 96%  
17 12% 80%  
18 30% 68% Median
19 12% 38%  
20 11% 26%  
21 4% 14%  
22 5% 10%  
23 2% 6%  
24 1.0% 3%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.4% 1.0%  
27 0.2% 0.6%  
28 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 5% 98%  
12 8% 93%  
13 18% 85% Last Result
14 24% 67% Median
15 18% 43%  
16 12% 26%  
17 7% 14%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0.4% 99.9%  
7 4% 99.5%  
8 14% 96% Last Result
9 22% 82%  
10 33% 60% Median
11 18% 27%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 4% 99.5%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 5% 96%  
7 22% 91%  
8 33% 69% Last Result, Median
9 21% 36%  
10 11% 15%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 9% 99.2%  
3 24% 90% Last Result
4 0.1% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 16% 67%  
7 26% 51% Median
8 19% 25%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 8% 94%  
2 66% 86% Median
3 17% 20% Last Result
4 0% 3%  
5 0.1% 3%  
6 2% 3%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 90 97% 86–94 85–95 84–97 83–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 89 88% 84–94 84–95 83–96 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 83 35% 80–87 79–89 78–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 81 17% 76–86 76–87 75–88 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 79 7% 74–84 74–85 73–86 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 78 2% 73–81 72–83 70–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 73 0.1% 70–77 69–79 68–80 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 72 0% 68–75 66–76 65–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 70 0% 67–75 66–76 64–77 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 70 0% 66–73 64–74 63–75 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 67 0% 62–71 62–73 60–75 58–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 61 0% 58–65 57–67 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 62 0% 58–65 57–66 56–67 54–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 59 0% 56–63 55–64 54–66 52–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 55 0% 52–58 51–60 50–60 48–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 53 0% 49–55 48–57 46–58 45–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 28 0% 26–32 25–33 23–34 21–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.9% 99.6%  
84 2% 98.7%  
85 4% 97% Majority
86 5% 94%  
87 5% 89%  
88 12% 83%  
89 9% 71% Median
90 15% 62%  
91 20% 48%  
92 6% 28%  
93 11% 22%  
94 4% 11%  
95 2% 7%  
96 2% 4% Last Result
97 2% 3%  
98 0.4% 0.9%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.8%  
82 1.0% 99.3%  
83 2% 98%  
84 9% 97%  
85 3% 88% Majority
86 6% 85%  
87 14% 78%  
88 11% 64%  
89 14% 53%  
90 8% 39% Median
91 7% 32%  
92 8% 25%  
93 6% 16%  
94 4% 11%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.1%  
100 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.4%  
77 0.8% 99.1%  
78 2% 98%  
79 6% 96%  
80 8% 90%  
81 18% 82%  
82 12% 64%  
83 5% 52% Median
84 12% 47%  
85 8% 35% Majority
86 12% 27%  
87 5% 14%  
88 3% 9%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.3% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 1.2%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.1% 99.6%  
75 2% 98.5%  
76 8% 97%  
77 3% 88%  
78 5% 85%  
79 9% 80%  
80 12% 71%  
81 11% 59%  
82 10% 47% Median
83 12% 37%  
84 9% 26%  
85 5% 17% Majority
86 4% 12%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.7%  
74 9% 97%  
75 3% 88%  
76 4% 85%  
77 13% 81%  
78 10% 68%  
79 15% 58%  
80 6% 43% Median
81 10% 36%  
82 9% 27%  
83 7% 18%  
84 4% 11%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.8%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1% Last Result
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 2% 99.0%  
71 1.2% 97% Last Result
72 3% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 7% 90%  
75 13% 82%  
76 8% 70%  
77 8% 62%  
78 17% 54% Median
79 10% 37%  
80 9% 27%  
81 9% 19%  
82 4% 10%  
83 4% 6%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 1.1% 99.4%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 4% 97%  
70 6% 93%  
71 18% 87%  
72 8% 69%  
73 12% 61% Median
74 13% 49%  
75 10% 36%  
76 11% 26%  
77 5% 15%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.2%  
65 1.5% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 7% 91% Last Result
69 8% 84%  
70 9% 76%  
71 9% 67% Median
72 16% 59%  
73 14% 42%  
74 8% 28%  
75 14% 20%  
76 2% 7%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.4%  
64 2% 98.9%  
65 1.0% 97%  
66 4% 96%  
67 6% 93%  
68 17% 87%  
69 8% 70%  
70 12% 62%  
71 14% 50%  
72 11% 36% Last Result, Median
73 7% 25%  
74 5% 18%  
75 7% 13%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.0% 3%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 1.1% 99.5%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 3% 94% Last Result
66 6% 92%  
67 8% 85%  
68 12% 77%  
69 12% 65% Median
70 14% 53%  
71 11% 40%  
72 9% 29%  
73 13% 19%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.1%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 10% 95%  
63 4% 86%  
64 7% 82%  
65 6% 75%  
66 13% 70%  
67 16% 57%  
68 8% 41% Median
69 8% 33%  
70 9% 25%  
71 6% 16%  
72 3% 10%  
73 2% 7%  
74 1.4% 4%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 1.4%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 3% 93%  
59 21% 90%  
60 13% 69%  
61 16% 56% Median
62 10% 40%  
63 8% 30%  
64 7% 22%  
65 7% 15%  
66 2% 8%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.5%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 96% Last Result
58 3% 91%  
59 12% 88%  
60 12% 75%  
61 13% 63% Median
62 12% 50%  
63 9% 39%  
64 10% 30%  
65 14% 20%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.8% 1.3%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 96%  
56 3% 93%  
57 19% 90%  
58 19% 71%  
59 12% 52% Median
60 12% 40%  
61 6% 28%  
62 9% 21%  
63 5% 13%  
64 3% 8%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.5%  
68 0.5% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.3% 99.2%  
50 1.4% 98%  
51 5% 97%  
52 8% 92%  
53 8% 84%  
54 16% 77%  
55 22% 61% Median
56 11% 39%  
57 11% 28%  
58 7% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.1% 2% Last Result
62 0.8% 1.4%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.7%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 2% 97% Last Result
48 4% 95%  
49 6% 92%  
50 7% 85%  
51 10% 78%  
52 13% 68% Median
53 17% 55%  
54 21% 38%  
55 8% 17%  
56 4% 9%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 1.0% 1.4%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 1.2% 99.4%  
23 1.2% 98%  
24 2% 97%  
25 4% 95%  
26 13% 92%  
27 19% 79%  
28 15% 60% Median
29 7% 45%  
30 12% 38%  
31 12% 26%  
32 6% 14%  
33 5% 8%  
34 1.1% 3%  
35 0.4% 2%  
36 0.5% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.9%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations