Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisens Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 4–9 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.6% 24.6–28.8% 24.1–29.4% 23.6–30.0% 22.6–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 19.0% 17.2–20.9% 16.7–21.5% 16.3–22.0% 15.5–22.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.8% 11.3–14.5% 10.9–15.0% 10.5–15.4% 9.9–16.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.8% 8.5–11.3% 8.1–11.8% 7.8–12.1% 7.2–12.9%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.3% 8.1–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.4–11.7% 6.9–12.5%
Rødt 4.7% 7.8% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.7% 6.1–10.0% 5.6–10.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.5–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Venstre 4.6% 4.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–6.0% 2.7–6.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–4.0% 1.8–4.2% 1.5–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 47 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 48 36 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–42
Fremskrittspartiet 21 22 19–26 18–26 18–27 17–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 17 14–20 13–20 13–21 11–22
Senterpartiet 28 16 14–19 13–20 13–21 12–23
Rødt 8 13 12–16 11–17 10–17 9–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–10 2–11 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 0–3 0–3 0–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.4% 99.7%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 7% 93%  
44 8% 86%  
45 9% 78%  
46 14% 69%  
47 15% 54% Median
48 6% 39%  
49 14% 33%  
50 8% 19%  
51 3% 11%  
52 3% 8%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.4% 1.2%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.7%  
30 0.9% 99.1%  
31 4% 98%  
32 5% 94%  
33 9% 89%  
34 10% 80%  
35 11% 70%  
36 29% 59% Median
37 15% 30%  
38 8% 15%  
39 3% 7%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.8% 2%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.0%  
19 5% 94%  
20 12% 88%  
21 13% 76% Last Result
22 20% 64% Median
23 16% 43%  
24 12% 27%  
25 6% 16%  
26 6% 10%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 1.0% 99.4%  
13 4% 98% Last Result
14 4% 94%  
15 12% 90%  
16 10% 77%  
17 20% 67% Median
18 19% 47%  
19 12% 28%  
20 12% 17%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.0% 1.4%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.5% 99.8%  
13 5% 99.3%  
14 10% 95%  
15 15% 85%  
16 24% 70% Median
17 14% 47%  
18 19% 33%  
19 8% 14%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 1.1%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100% Last Result
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.4%  
11 7% 97%  
12 13% 90%  
13 29% 78% Median
14 17% 48%  
15 13% 31%  
16 10% 18%  
17 6% 8%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.6%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 8% 99.7%  
3 6% 91% Last Result
4 0% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0.3% 86%  
7 9% 86%  
8 30% 76% Median
9 25% 46%  
10 14% 22%  
11 5% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 32% 99.9%  
3 14% 68%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 1.4% 54%  
7 16% 53% Median
8 19% 37% Last Result
9 11% 18%  
10 4% 7%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 5% 84%  
2 64% 80% Median
3 12% 16% Last Result
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0.3% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.8% 1.0%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 93 99.2% 88–98 87–100 86–101 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 91 93% 86–95 84–97 83–99 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 85 50% 79–89 78–91 77–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 83 32% 78–88 76–90 76–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 79 7% 74–84 73–85 71–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 77 3% 72–82 70–83 69–85 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 77 2% 72–82 71–83 69–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 74 0.6% 70–80 69–81 67–83 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0.2% 70–79 68–80 67–82 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 69 0% 65–74 63–76 62–76 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 69 0% 65–74 63–75 62–75 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 62 0% 57–66 56–68 55–69 52–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 54 0% 49–59 49–61 47–62 45–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 54 0% 50–58 49–59 48–60 46–62
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 52 0% 48–55 47–57 47–58 45–60
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 53 0% 49–56 47–57 47–58 44–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 24 0% 20–29 18–30 18–31 16–34

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.5% 99.7%  
85 1.1% 99.2% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 4% 93%  
89 6% 89%  
90 8% 83%  
91 4% 75%  
92 11% 70%  
93 16% 59%  
94 11% 43% Median
95 5% 32%  
96 9% 27% Last Result
97 5% 18%  
98 4% 12%  
99 3% 9%  
100 2% 6%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.2%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 1.0% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 3% 90%  
87 5% 87%  
88 8% 82%  
89 8% 75%  
90 12% 66% Median
91 9% 54%  
92 10% 45%  
93 12% 35%  
94 5% 23%  
95 9% 19%  
96 2% 10%  
97 3% 7%  
98 1.2% 4%  
99 3% 3%  
100 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 0.8% 99.0%  
77 1.5% 98%  
78 5% 97%  
79 3% 92%  
80 7% 89%  
81 4% 82%  
82 9% 78%  
83 6% 69%  
84 13% 63%  
85 6% 50% Majority
86 12% 44% Median
87 10% 32%  
88 9% 22%  
89 4% 13%  
90 3% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.7% 1.5%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.4%  
75 1.0% 98.8%  
76 3% 98%  
77 3% 95%  
78 4% 92%  
79 3% 88%  
80 9% 85%  
81 12% 76%  
82 13% 64% Median
83 6% 51%  
84 12% 45%  
85 6% 32% Majority
86 8% 26%  
87 5% 18%  
88 5% 13%  
89 2% 8%  
90 4% 6%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.6% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.1%  
71 1.2% 98.5%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 92%  
75 5% 88%  
76 6% 82%  
77 7% 77%  
78 8% 70%  
79 15% 62% Median
80 8% 46%  
81 9% 39%  
82 13% 30%  
83 6% 16%  
84 3% 10%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
69 3% 99.1%  
70 2% 96%  
71 4% 95%  
72 5% 91%  
73 9% 86%  
74 5% 77%  
75 12% 72%  
76 9% 60%  
77 10% 50%  
78 12% 41% Median
79 6% 29%  
80 7% 23%  
81 5% 16%  
82 2% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.1%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 4% 87%  
74 6% 84%  
75 8% 77%  
76 13% 70%  
77 10% 57% Median
78 6% 47%  
79 11% 41%  
80 13% 31%  
81 7% 18%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 1.2% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 4% 91%  
71 8% 87%  
72 5% 79%  
73 15% 75%  
74 10% 60%  
75 12% 50%  
76 9% 38% Median
77 5% 28%  
78 7% 23%  
79 5% 16%  
80 3% 11%  
81 4% 8%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.6% 99.2%  
66 0.9% 98.6%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 5% 90%  
71 6% 86%  
72 9% 80% Last Result
73 6% 71%  
74 13% 64% Median
75 15% 51%  
76 12% 36%  
77 4% 24%  
78 7% 20%  
79 6% 13%  
80 2% 7%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 1.5% 3%  
83 1.0% 1.4%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.3% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.7%  
61 1.0% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 4% 94%  
65 6% 90%  
66 7% 84%  
67 12% 78%  
68 8% 66%  
69 13% 58% Median
70 5% 45%  
71 17% 40%  
72 6% 22%  
73 6% 17%  
74 2% 10%  
75 2% 8%  
76 5% 6%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 5% 91%  
66 7% 86%  
67 10% 79%  
68 11% 70%  
69 9% 59% Median
70 10% 50%  
71 16% 40%  
72 6% 24%  
73 5% 18%  
74 7% 12%  
75 3% 5%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.8% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.6% 99.3%  
54 1.1% 98.7%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 95%  
57 4% 93%  
58 8% 89%  
59 7% 81%  
60 8% 74%  
61 15% 67%  
62 6% 52% Median
63 8% 46%  
64 13% 38%  
65 12% 26%  
66 5% 13%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 1.4%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.3%  
47 1.2% 98.7% Last Result
48 2% 97%  
49 7% 96%  
50 5% 89%  
51 4% 84%  
52 8% 79%  
53 14% 72%  
54 11% 58%  
55 12% 48%  
56 6% 35% Median
57 11% 30%  
58 7% 19%  
59 2% 12%  
60 3% 9%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.8% 99.4%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 4% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 8% 87%  
52 12% 79%  
53 11% 67%  
54 11% 56% Median
55 10% 46%  
56 19% 36%  
57 6% 16%  
58 3% 10%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 4% 98%  
48 6% 94%  
49 8% 88%  
50 10% 79%  
51 10% 70%  
52 12% 59% Median
53 14% 47%  
54 19% 33%  
55 5% 14%  
56 4% 10%  
57 3% 6%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.5% 99.4%  
46 0.9% 98.9%  
47 3% 98%  
48 5% 95%  
49 6% 90%  
50 6% 85%  
51 9% 79%  
52 12% 69%  
53 16% 57% Median
54 16% 42%  
55 7% 26%  
56 10% 19%  
57 5% 9%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.8%  
17 0.9% 98.5%  
18 3% 98%  
19 3% 94%  
20 10% 91%  
21 5% 81%  
22 13% 76%  
23 11% 63%  
24 7% 52%  
25 9% 45% Median
26 10% 36%  
27 12% 26%  
28 4% 14%  
29 4% 11%  
30 3% 6%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 1.1%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations