Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 5–10 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Rødt 4.7% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 45 42–49 42–50 41–50 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 44 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–50
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 14–23
Senterpartiet 28 17 15–20 15–20 14–21 13–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 14–19 14–20 13–20 12–21
Rødt 8 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 8–16
Venstre 8 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.5%  
41 3% 98%  
42 7% 95%  
43 9% 88%  
44 20% 79%  
45 16% 59% Median
46 11% 42%  
47 8% 31%  
48 13% 23%  
49 5% 10%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.8%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 4% 97%  
40 9% 92%  
41 14% 83%  
42 4% 69%  
43 14% 65%  
44 15% 51% Median
45 13% 36%  
46 8% 23%  
47 8% 15%  
48 3% 7% Last Result
49 2% 4%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.8%  
15 1.4% 99.1%  
16 6% 98%  
17 14% 92%  
18 18% 78%  
19 27% 60% Median
20 21% 33%  
21 9% 12% Last Result
22 2% 4%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 3% 98.9%  
15 16% 96%  
16 13% 79%  
17 17% 66% Median
18 26% 49%  
19 10% 22%  
20 9% 12%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.7%  
13 3% 99.0% Last Result
14 10% 96%  
15 13% 86%  
16 25% 73% Median
17 16% 47%  
18 16% 31%  
19 8% 15%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
9 6% 99.1%  
10 15% 94%  
11 31% 78% Median
12 32% 47%  
13 8% 16%  
14 6% 8%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 9% 91%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0.3% 82%  
7 25% 82%  
8 37% 56% Last Result, Median
9 12% 19%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100%  
2 21% 98.9%  
3 11% 78% Last Result
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0.4% 68%  
7 18% 67% Median
8 32% 50%  
9 13% 17%  
10 3% 5%  
11 1.4% 1.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 12% 89%  
2 64% 77% Median
3 11% 13% Last Result
4 0% 1.3%  
5 0% 1.3%  
6 0.1% 1.3%  
7 0.9% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 95 99.9% 90–99 89–100 89–102 86–104
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 90 95% 86–96 85–97 83–98 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 88 88% 84–93 83–94 83–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 86 62% 81–89 80–91 79–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 84 43% 79–88 78–89 77–90 75–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 78 3% 72–82 71–83 70–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 80 2% 75–83 74–84 72–84 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 77 1.5% 73–81 72–82 72–83 70–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 73 0% 69–78 68–78 66–79 64–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 71 0% 67–76 66–76 64–77 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 69 0% 64–73 63–74 62–75 59–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 63 0% 59–66 58–68 57–68 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 61 0% 57–65 56–65 55–66 53–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 60 0% 57–64 55–65 55–66 53–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 54 0% 51–58 49–59 48–60 46–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 27 0% 22–30 21–30 19–31 18–33

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 99.5%  
88 0.9% 99.0%  
89 3% 98%  
90 10% 95%  
91 3% 85%  
92 7% 82%  
93 9% 74%  
94 6% 66%  
95 13% 60% Median
96 15% 47%  
97 12% 32%  
98 6% 20%  
99 4% 14%  
100 5% 10% Last Result
101 1.1% 4%  
102 1.2% 3%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.8% 1.2%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.3% 99.6%  
82 1.1% 99.2%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 9% 92%  
87 6% 83%  
88 12% 77%  
89 9% 66%  
90 8% 57%  
91 14% 49% Median
92 9% 35%  
93 7% 26%  
94 6% 19%  
95 2% 13%  
96 4% 11% Last Result
97 3% 7%  
98 4% 4%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.7% 99.5%  
82 0.7% 98.8%  
83 3% 98%  
84 6% 95%  
85 4% 88% Majority
86 7% 84%  
87 10% 78%  
88 18% 67% Median
89 15% 50%  
90 8% 34%  
91 5% 26%  
92 7% 21%  
93 5% 14%  
94 5% 9%  
95 1.4% 4%  
96 0.9% 3%  
97 1.1% 2% Last Result
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.4%  
78 0.7% 98.8%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 5% 97%  
81 7% 92%  
82 7% 85%  
83 7% 79%  
84 10% 72%  
85 11% 62% Majority
86 11% 50% Median
87 17% 39%  
88 6% 23%  
89 7% 17%  
90 4% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.6% 99.0%  
77 2% 98%  
78 6% 97%  
79 6% 91%  
80 8% 85%  
81 5% 77%  
82 6% 72%  
83 11% 66%  
84 12% 55% Median
85 20% 43% Majority
86 5% 23%  
87 7% 18%  
88 5% 11%  
89 2% 6%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 4% 99.2%  
71 3% 95%  
72 4% 92% Last Result
73 2% 89%  
74 4% 86%  
75 10% 82%  
76 8% 72%  
77 8% 64%  
78 15% 57% Median
79 8% 41%  
80 13% 33%  
81 6% 21%  
82 7% 15%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
72 2% 98.9%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 5% 96%  
75 3% 91%  
76 7% 88%  
77 6% 81%  
78 9% 74%  
79 15% 66%  
80 17% 50%  
81 11% 33% Median
82 10% 22%  
83 3% 12%  
84 6% 9%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 1.3% 99.1%  
72 3% 98%  
73 7% 95%  
74 5% 88%  
75 5% 83%  
76 16% 77%  
77 22% 61% Median
78 10% 40%  
79 6% 30%  
80 6% 23%  
81 7% 17%  
82 6% 10%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.5% Majority
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.9% 99.3%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 1.5% 97%  
68 3% 96% Last Result
69 5% 92%  
70 5% 87%  
71 16% 82%  
72 10% 65%  
73 14% 56%  
74 11% 42% Median
75 8% 31%  
76 9% 23%  
77 3% 14%  
78 7% 12%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.8% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 99.4%  
64 1.0% 98.5%  
65 1.2% 97% Last Result
66 3% 96%  
67 5% 93%  
68 4% 88%  
69 16% 84%  
70 9% 68%  
71 15% 60%  
72 11% 45% Median
73 11% 33%  
74 7% 22%  
75 3% 14%  
76 9% 12%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.4%  
61 0.5% 99.0%  
62 1.2% 98.5%  
63 6% 97%  
64 5% 91%  
65 6% 86%  
66 5% 81%  
67 8% 76%  
68 17% 67%  
69 7% 51%  
70 9% 43% Median
71 12% 35%  
72 10% 23%  
73 5% 13%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 3% 98%  
60 3% 95%  
61 11% 92%  
62 13% 81%  
63 11% 68%  
64 14% 57% Median
65 16% 43%  
66 4% 27%  
67 6% 22%  
68 7% 16%  
69 6% 9%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 5% 92%  
60 6% 87%  
61 20% 81%  
62 11% 61%  
63 16% 50% Median
64 10% 35%  
65 10% 24%  
66 7% 14%  
67 3% 8%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.3%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 4% 97%  
57 4% 93%  
58 8% 89%  
59 18% 81%  
60 10% 63%  
61 17% 53% Median
62 10% 36%  
63 9% 27%  
64 7% 17%  
65 6% 10%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 98.9%  
55 3% 98%  
56 4% 94%  
57 11% 90%  
58 12% 79%  
59 11% 67%  
60 11% 56% Median
61 16% 44% Last Result
62 11% 28%  
63 5% 17%  
64 3% 12%  
65 5% 9%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.9% 99.5%  
47 1.1% 98.6% Last Result
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 5% 90%  
52 12% 86%  
53 13% 73%  
54 15% 60%  
55 11% 45% Median
56 12% 34%  
57 7% 22%  
58 10% 16%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.1% 99.8%  
18 0.4% 99.7%  
19 3% 99.3%  
20 1.3% 97%  
21 3% 95%  
22 3% 92%  
23 9% 89%  
24 7% 81%  
25 12% 74%  
26 11% 62%  
27 16% 51% Median
28 15% 35%  
29 7% 20%  
30 10% 13%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations