Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 10–15 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Rødt 4.7% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Venstre 4.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 45 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Arbeiderpartiet 48 41 38–45 37–46 37–47 36–48
Fremskrittspartiet 21 21 18–23 17–24 17–24 17–26
Senterpartiet 28 17 14–18 14–19 13–19 12–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 13–18 13–19 12–19 11–20
Rødt 8 10 9–11 8–12 8–13 7–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 9 7–10 3–11 3–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 2–8 2–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.5%  
41 4% 98.8%  
42 4% 95%  
43 8% 91%  
44 22% 83%  
45 18% 61% Median
46 15% 43%  
47 17% 28%  
48 5% 11%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.8% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 9% 88%  
40 23% 80%  
41 12% 57% Median
42 16% 45%  
43 9% 29%  
44 6% 20%  
45 5% 14%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.2% 2% Last Result
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 6% 99.6%  
18 7% 93%  
19 10% 86%  
20 14% 76%  
21 22% 62% Last Result, Median
22 22% 40%  
23 11% 18%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 12% 96%  
15 17% 85%  
16 17% 68%  
17 26% 51% Median
18 18% 25%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.9% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.2%  
13 7% 96% Last Result
14 10% 89%  
15 25% 79%  
16 20% 54% Median
17 18% 34%  
18 9% 16%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.0% 1.3%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 6% 98% Last Result
9 21% 92%  
10 33% 71% Median
11 30% 39%  
12 6% 9%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 5% 99.5% Last Result
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.2% 95%  
7 12% 94%  
8 29% 83%  
9 32% 54% Median
10 14% 22%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 14% 100%  
3 26% 86%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 1.1% 60%  
7 20% 59% Median
8 31% 38% Last Result
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 35% 96%  
3 26% 61% Last Result, Median
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 2% 35%  
7 20% 33%  
8 10% 13%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 97 99.9% 92–100 91–101 90–103 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 87 85% 84–92 83–94 81–94 80–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 85 72% 83–90 81–92 81–92 79–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 84 46% 80–87 79–89 78–90 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 84 37% 80–88 79–89 77–90 76–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 68 80 7% 76–84 75–85 74–86 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 77 2% 74–82 73–83 72–84 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 73 0% 70–77 69–79 68–79 66–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 71 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 72 0% 67–75 67–77 66–77 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 66 0% 62–70 61–70 61–72 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 66 0% 62–70 62–71 60–72 58–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 47 60 0% 55–63 54–64 53–64 51–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 58 0% 54–61 53–63 53–63 51–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 57 0% 54–61 52–62 52–63 50–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 39 30 0% 26–34 25–35 24–36 22–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 0.6% 99.4%  
89 0.9% 98.9%  
90 3% 98%  
91 4% 95%  
92 5% 91%  
93 8% 86%  
94 7% 78%  
95 6% 71%  
96 10% 65% Last Result
97 9% 55%  
98 13% 47%  
99 14% 33% Median
100 10% 20%  
101 5% 9%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.2% 3%  
104 1.3% 2%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.7% 99.5%  
81 2% 98.9%  
82 1.4% 97%  
83 4% 96%  
84 7% 92%  
85 11% 85% Majority
86 13% 73%  
87 10% 60% Median
88 13% 50%  
89 6% 37%  
90 8% 30%  
91 7% 22%  
92 8% 16%  
93 3% 8%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.1%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.5% 99.5%  
80 1.3% 99.0%  
81 3% 98%  
82 4% 94%  
83 12% 90%  
84 7% 78%  
85 23% 72% Majority
86 11% 49% Median
87 7% 38%  
88 8% 31%  
89 8% 22%  
90 5% 15%  
91 3% 9%  
92 4% 6%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.6%  
77 0.6% 99.4%  
78 3% 98.8%  
79 4% 96%  
80 3% 92%  
81 5% 88%  
82 5% 83%  
83 11% 78%  
84 21% 67%  
85 9% 46% Median, Majority
86 15% 37%  
87 12% 22%  
88 3% 10%  
89 3% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.5%  
77 1.4% 98.8%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 95%  
80 3% 92%  
81 12% 89%  
82 15% 76%  
83 9% 61%  
84 16% 52% Median
85 13% 37% Majority
86 8% 24%  
87 4% 16%  
88 4% 12%  
89 4% 8%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.3% 1.0%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 0.9% 98.8%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 6% 97%  
76 6% 91%  
77 7% 85%  
78 9% 77%  
79 6% 68%  
80 14% 63%  
81 5% 48%  
82 17% 43% Median
83 12% 26%  
84 7% 14%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 1.1% 3%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 12% 94%  
75 8% 82%  
76 18% 74%  
77 9% 56% Median
78 9% 48%  
79 11% 38%  
80 9% 28%  
81 6% 19%  
82 4% 13%  
83 4% 9%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 0.8% 99.2%  
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 3% 93%  
71 11% 89%  
72 14% 78%  
73 18% 64%  
74 16% 46% Median
75 5% 30%  
76 10% 25%  
77 5% 15%  
78 4% 10%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.4% 1.5%  
81 0.6% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 1.4% 99.5%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 5% 94%  
68 10% 90%  
69 10% 80%  
70 17% 70% Median
71 10% 53%  
72 9% 43% Last Result
73 7% 34%  
74 7% 27%  
75 5% 21%  
76 7% 15%  
77 5% 8%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.6%  
65 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
66 2% 98%  
67 7% 96%  
68 7% 89%  
69 9% 82%  
70 5% 74%  
71 8% 68%  
72 10% 60%  
73 20% 50% Median
74 16% 30%  
75 4% 14%  
76 3% 9%  
77 5% 6%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.9%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.6% 99.3%  
64 2% 98.6%  
65 4% 97%  
66 8% 92%  
67 8% 84%  
68 6% 76%  
69 6% 70%  
70 21% 64% Median
71 9% 43%  
72 7% 34%  
73 9% 27%  
74 7% 18%  
75 3% 11%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1% Last Result
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.5% 99.1%  
61 4% 98%  
62 5% 93%  
63 6% 88%  
64 13% 82%  
65 10% 69%  
66 19% 59% Median
67 12% 39%  
68 3% 28%  
69 8% 25%  
70 12% 17%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.1% 3%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.7% 99.3%  
60 1.3% 98.6%  
61 2% 97%  
62 7% 96%  
63 4% 89%  
64 13% 85%  
65 15% 72%  
66 8% 57%  
67 13% 48% Median
68 19% 36%  
69 5% 17%  
70 5% 12%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 0.9% 99.3%  
53 3% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 92%  
56 9% 88%  
57 7% 79%  
58 7% 73%  
59 13% 66%  
60 11% 53%  
61 17% 42% Median
62 10% 25%  
63 9% 14%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.8% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.7%  
52 1.4% 99.0%  
53 5% 98%  
54 3% 93%  
55 7% 89%  
56 10% 83%  
57 21% 72%  
58 16% 51% Median
59 11% 35%  
60 8% 24%  
61 7% 16%  
62 3% 9%  
63 3% 6%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.7% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 3% 98%  
53 3% 95%  
54 7% 92%  
55 9% 85%  
56 13% 76%  
57 24% 63% Median
58 15% 39%  
59 7% 24%  
60 5% 18%  
61 3% 12% Last Result
62 4% 9%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.3% 99.6%  
23 1.2% 99.3%  
24 1.2% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 6% 94%  
27 6% 88%  
28 4% 82%  
29 14% 78%  
30 14% 63%  
31 9% 50%  
32 14% 41%  
33 9% 27% Median
34 9% 18%  
35 5% 9%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations