Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 18–24 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 27.1% 25.4–29.0% 24.9–29.6% 24.4–30.0% 23.6–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 20.8% 19.2–22.6% 18.8–23.1% 18.4–23.5% 17.6–24.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.2% 10.0–12.7% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Rødt 4.7% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Venstre 4.6% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 48 44–52 44–54 43–55 41–57
Arbeiderpartiet 48 39 36–44 35–45 34–46 32–47
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 18–23 17–23 17–24 15–26
Rødt 8 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
Senterpartiet 28 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–20
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 13–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 2–3 1–7 0–8 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 2% 98%  
44 6% 95%  
45 6% 89%  
46 12% 84%  
47 6% 71%  
48 16% 65% Median
49 15% 49%  
50 10% 34%  
51 7% 24%  
52 8% 17%  
53 3% 10%  
54 2% 7%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.7% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.2%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 8% 94%  
37 16% 86%  
38 16% 70%  
39 11% 54% Median
40 14% 43%  
41 7% 29%  
42 5% 22%  
43 6% 17%  
44 5% 10%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.5% 3%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 1.1% 99.5%  
17 7% 98%  
18 14% 92%  
19 18% 78%  
20 17% 59% Median
21 12% 42% Last Result
22 15% 30%  
23 12% 15%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 3% 98.6%  
14 7% 96%  
15 16% 89%  
16 11% 73%  
17 25% 61% Median
18 18% 36%  
19 11% 18%  
20 4% 7%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 6% 98%  
14 14% 91%  
15 20% 77%  
16 25% 58% Median
17 17% 32%  
18 10% 16%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 4% 97%  
13 13% 93% Last Result
14 19% 80%  
15 19% 61% Median
16 26% 42%  
17 9% 16%  
18 4% 7%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 49% 99.4% Median
3 16% 50%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 1.5% 34%  
7 9% 33%  
8 17% 23% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100%  
2 47% 85% Median
3 16% 38% Last Result
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 4% 22%  
7 8% 18%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 4% 97%  
2 59% 93% Median
3 26% 34% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0.7% 7%  
7 4% 7%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 90 94% 86–94 84–96 83–98 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 93% 86–96 84–98 83–98 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 97 87 75% 82–91 81–92 80–93 77–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 78 6% 73–84 71–85 69–86 68–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 76 1.2% 71–80 70–82 69–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.3% 70–79 68–80 67–82 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 76 0.9% 70–81 68–81 67–82 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 74 0% 69–78 68–79 67–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 74 0.1% 68–78 65–79 65–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 70 0% 66–74 65–75 63–76 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 69 0% 63–73 63–75 62–76 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 61 0% 57–66 55–67 54–68 52–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 58 0% 54–62 52–63 51–64 50–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 55 0% 51–59 49–61 48–62 46–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 55 0% 51–59 50–60 49–61 48–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 54 0% 50–58 49–60 48–60 47–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 22 0% 19–27 18–28 17–29 16–31

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.2% 99.5%  
82 1.2% 99.3%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 94% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 13% 88%  
88 10% 75%  
89 11% 65% Median
90 7% 54%  
91 9% 47%  
92 15% 38%  
93 8% 23%  
94 6% 15%  
95 3% 9%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.0% 4%  
98 1.0% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.6%  
82 1.0% 99.1%  
83 3% 98%  
84 2% 95%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 4% 90%  
87 4% 86%  
88 10% 82% Median
89 4% 73%  
90 7% 68%  
91 8% 61%  
92 15% 53%  
93 9% 38%  
94 5% 29%  
95 12% 24%  
96 4% 12% Last Result
97 2% 9%  
98 5% 7%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.7% 1.3%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.2%  
79 1.2% 98.8%  
80 2% 98%  
81 5% 96%  
82 4% 91%  
83 4% 87%  
84 8% 83%  
85 9% 75% Majority
86 11% 66%  
87 13% 55% Median
88 5% 42%  
89 7% 37%  
90 14% 30%  
91 6% 15%  
92 6% 10%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.3%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 0.9% 95% Last Result
72 1.3% 95%  
73 4% 93%  
74 7% 89% Median
75 7% 82%  
76 5% 76%  
77 7% 70%  
78 15% 64%  
79 9% 49%  
80 6% 40%  
81 8% 34%  
82 5% 26%  
83 7% 21%  
84 7% 13%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.6%  
68 0.7% 98.7%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 6% 94%  
72 4% 88%  
73 11% 83%  
74 6% 73% Median
75 8% 66%  
76 16% 58%  
77 13% 41%  
78 7% 28%  
79 7% 21%  
80 5% 14%  
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.2% 4%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 99.1%  
67 1.1% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 8% 93%  
71 7% 86%  
72 9% 79% Last Result
73 16% 70% Median
74 6% 54%  
75 10% 49%  
76 15% 38%  
77 7% 23%  
78 5% 16%  
79 3% 11%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.3%  
67 3% 98.6%  
68 3% 96% Last Result
69 2% 93%  
70 2% 91%  
71 6% 89%  
72 7% 83% Median
73 8% 76%  
74 6% 68%  
75 9% 62%  
76 15% 54%  
77 10% 39%  
78 7% 29%  
79 4% 22%  
80 4% 18%  
81 10% 14%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.3%  
85 0.6% 0.9% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 1.0% 99.4%  
66 0.8% 98%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 6% 92%  
70 9% 86%  
71 6% 77%  
72 12% 71% Median
73 7% 59%  
74 17% 52%  
75 11% 35%  
76 8% 24%  
77 6% 16%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 1.5% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 0.8% 99.1%  
65 3% 98% Last Result
66 3% 95%  
67 2% 92%  
68 5% 90%  
69 7% 85%  
70 8% 78% Median
71 7% 70%  
72 8% 63%  
73 5% 55%  
74 17% 50%  
75 7% 34%  
76 7% 26%  
77 3% 19%  
78 9% 16%  
79 4% 7%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.5% 1.4%  
82 0.5% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.4%  
63 1.4% 98.7%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 6% 93%  
67 13% 87%  
68 8% 74%  
69 8% 66%  
70 12% 58% Median
71 5% 46%  
72 18% 41%  
73 9% 23%  
74 5% 13%  
75 5% 8%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.7%  
61 1.1% 98.9%  
62 2% 98%  
63 6% 95%  
64 4% 90%  
65 5% 86%  
66 11% 81%  
67 10% 70%  
68 6% 60% Median
69 11% 54%  
70 11% 43%  
71 7% 32%  
72 11% 25%  
73 6% 15%  
74 3% 8%  
75 0.9% 6%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 1.4% 99.5%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 96%  
56 3% 93%  
57 13% 90%  
58 6% 78%  
59 6% 72% Median
60 13% 65%  
61 8% 52%  
62 16% 44%  
63 5% 28%  
64 7% 22%  
65 5% 16%  
66 2% 10%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.4%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 1.4% 98.9%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 8% 91%  
55 12% 83%  
56 10% 71%  
57 8% 61% Median
58 13% 53%  
59 10% 40%  
60 13% 29%  
61 4% 16%  
62 4% 12%  
63 3% 8%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.5% Last Result
48 3% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 3% 94%  
51 5% 90%  
52 5% 85% Median
53 14% 80%  
54 10% 66%  
55 10% 56%  
56 12% 46%  
57 5% 35%  
58 8% 29%  
59 11% 21%  
60 3% 10%  
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.6% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 1.1% 99.6%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 5% 85%  
53 13% 80%  
54 9% 67%  
55 11% 59% Median
56 18% 48%  
57 8% 30%  
58 10% 22%  
59 3% 12%  
60 5% 9%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.9%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 1.0% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.5%  
49 3% 97%  
50 6% 94%  
51 7% 88%  
52 8% 81%  
53 17% 73%  
54 12% 57% Median
55 7% 44%  
56 15% 38%  
57 5% 22%  
58 7% 17%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 2% Last Result
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.8%  
17 3% 98.9%  
18 5% 96%  
19 8% 91%  
20 18% 83% Median
21 8% 65%  
22 10% 56%  
23 8% 46%  
24 7% 38%  
25 12% 31%  
26 5% 19%  
27 7% 14%  
28 3% 7%  
29 2% 4%  
30 0.8% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.8%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations