Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagbladet, 24–26 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 24.3% 22.4–26.4% 21.8–27.0% 21.3–27.6% 20.4–28.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.4% 20.5–24.5% 20.0–25.1% 19.5–25.6% 18.7–26.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.6% 11.1–14.3% 10.7–14.8% 10.3–15.2% 9.7–16.0%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 10.2% 8.9–11.8% 8.6–12.3% 8.2–12.7% 7.7–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.8% 8.6–11.4% 8.2–11.8% 7.9–12.2% 7.3–13.0%
Rødt 4.7% 6.1% 5.1–7.4% 4.9–7.8% 4.6–8.1% 4.2–8.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–6.0% 2.7–6.5%
Venstre 4.6% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 43 40–47 39–48 39–49 36–51
Arbeiderpartiet 48 41 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–50
Fremskrittspartiet 21 22 19–25 18–27 18–27 17–29
Senterpartiet 28 18 16–21 15–22 14–23 13–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 17 15–20 14–21 13–22 12–23
Rødt 8 11 9–14 8–14 8–15 7–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–12
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
37 0.6% 99.4%  
38 1.0% 98.7%  
39 3% 98%  
40 8% 95%  
41 14% 87%  
42 14% 73%  
43 10% 59% Median
44 15% 49%  
45 15% 34%  
46 6% 19%  
47 4% 13%  
48 6% 10%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.6%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 4% 97%  
38 7% 93%  
39 12% 86%  
40 13% 74%  
41 12% 62% Median
42 8% 49%  
43 15% 42%  
44 11% 27%  
45 9% 16%  
46 4% 7%  
47 1.3% 3%  
48 1.0% 2% Last Result
49 0.4% 0.9%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.9% 99.7%  
18 5% 98.9%  
19 6% 94%  
20 10% 88%  
21 15% 77% Last Result
22 20% 62% Median
23 16% 42%  
24 7% 26%  
25 11% 19%  
26 2% 8%  
27 4% 6%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 6% 97%  
16 8% 91%  
17 18% 83%  
18 24% 65% Median
19 13% 42%  
20 16% 28%  
21 6% 12%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 1.3%  
25 0.4% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 1.0% 99.5%  
13 2% 98.5% Last Result
14 6% 97%  
15 11% 91%  
16 14% 79%  
17 23% 65% Median
18 19% 43%  
19 10% 24%  
20 9% 14%  
21 3% 5%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 1.3% 99.7%  
8 6% 98% Last Result
9 12% 92%  
10 25% 80%  
11 22% 56% Median
12 16% 34%  
13 7% 17%  
14 8% 10%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 16% 98%  
3 15% 82% Last Result
4 0.1% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0.7% 67%  
7 12% 67%  
8 28% 55% Median
9 21% 27%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 50% 97% Median
3 30% 47%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0.8% 18%  
7 7% 17%  
8 8% 10% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 3% 98%  
2 43% 95%  
3 36% 52% Last Result, Median
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 1.1% 17%  
7 6% 16%  
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 95 98.6% 89–99 87–101 86–102 83–104
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 90 93% 86–96 84–98 83–99 80–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 88 79% 83–94 81–95 80–96 77–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 87 69% 81–91 79–94 78–95 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 83 38% 78–88 76–90 75–92 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 79 7% 74–84 72–85 71–86 68–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 77 2% 72–82 71–83 70–84 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 76 0.9% 71–82 69–82 68–83 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 72 0.1% 67–78 66–79 65–80 62–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 70 0% 64–74 62–76 61–78 59–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 69 0% 64–74 63–76 62–77 59–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 66 0% 61–70 60–71 59–74 57–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 64 0% 58–67 57–69 56–70 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 60 0% 56–64 54–65 53–66 52–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 59 0% 54–63 53–64 52–65 50–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 50 0% 45–55 45–56 44–57 42–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 24 0% 21–29 20–31 19–32 18–34

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 99.2%  
85 0.8% 98.6% Majority
86 1.3% 98%  
87 3% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 4% 91%  
90 8% 87%  
91 8% 79%  
92 6% 71%  
93 8% 66%  
94 7% 57%  
95 8% 50% Median
96 4% 42%  
97 10% 38%  
98 6% 28%  
99 14% 22%  
100 1.2% 8% Last Result
101 3% 7%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 1.3% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.3%  
82 1.2% 98.7%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 8% 90%  
87 7% 82%  
88 11% 75% Median
89 5% 64%  
90 12% 59%  
91 7% 48%  
92 10% 41%  
93 5% 30%  
94 11% 26%  
95 2% 15%  
96 4% 12% Last Result
97 3% 8%  
98 3% 5%  
99 0.8% 3%  
100 1.3% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.3% 99.2%  
79 0.8% 98.9%  
80 1.3% 98%  
81 3% 97%  
82 3% 94%  
83 5% 91%  
84 7% 86%  
85 7% 79% Majority
86 11% 72%  
87 5% 61% Median
88 8% 55%  
89 12% 48%  
90 10% 36%  
91 8% 26%  
92 5% 18%  
93 2% 13%  
94 4% 11%  
95 3% 7%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.9% 99.1%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 1.1% 94%  
81 7% 93%  
82 5% 86%  
83 4% 81%  
84 8% 77%  
85 7% 69% Majority
86 12% 63%  
87 7% 50% Median
88 6% 44%  
89 6% 38%  
90 11% 32%  
91 13% 21%  
92 2% 9%  
93 1.2% 7%  
94 3% 6%  
95 2% 3% Last Result
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 0.9% 99.2%  
75 1.5% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 3% 95%  
78 4% 92%  
79 8% 88%  
80 6% 80%  
81 7% 74%  
82 6% 67%  
83 12% 60%  
84 11% 48% Median
85 4% 38% Majority
86 4% 34%  
87 8% 30%  
88 14% 22%  
89 3% 9%  
90 0.8% 6%  
91 1.4% 5%  
92 3% 4% Last Result
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 1.1% 99.0%  
71 2% 98% Last Result
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 94%  
74 10% 91%  
75 5% 81%  
76 5% 76%  
77 13% 71%  
78 4% 58% Median
79 12% 54%  
80 13% 41%  
81 5% 28%  
82 5% 23%  
83 5% 18%  
84 6% 13%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.2% 4%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.5%  
69 1.2% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 3% 92%  
73 4% 89%  
74 12% 85%  
75 10% 73%  
76 6% 63% Median
77 7% 57%  
78 11% 49%  
79 13% 38%  
80 9% 25%  
81 5% 17%  
82 5% 12%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.1%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 0.8% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 4% 94%  
71 5% 91%  
72 6% 85% Last Result
73 6% 79%  
74 9% 73%  
75 8% 63%  
76 8% 55%  
77 11% 47% Median
78 5% 36%  
79 9% 32%  
80 5% 22%  
81 7% 18%  
82 7% 11%  
83 0.9% 3%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.9% Majority
86 0.1% 0.5%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.9% 99.4%  
64 0.5% 98%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 5% 97%  
67 2% 92%  
68 5% 89% Last Result
69 10% 85%  
70 11% 75% Median
71 12% 64%  
72 11% 53%  
73 7% 42%  
74 7% 35%  
75 6% 28%  
76 7% 22%  
77 2% 14%  
78 6% 12%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.3% 99.5%  
60 2% 99.2%  
61 1.2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 94%  
64 4% 91%  
65 4% 87%  
66 7% 82%  
67 8% 75%  
68 10% 67%  
69 7% 58%  
70 6% 51% Median
71 8% 45%  
72 7% 37%  
73 11% 30%  
74 10% 18%  
75 2% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.2% 4%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.5% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 1.2% 99.1%  
62 1.1% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 5% 95%  
65 6% 89% Last Result
66 8% 83%  
67 11% 75% Median
68 11% 64%  
69 14% 54%  
70 11% 40%  
71 5% 29%  
72 6% 23%  
73 5% 17%  
74 4% 12%  
75 2% 8%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 0.6% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
58 0.8% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 6% 93%  
62 4% 87%  
63 10% 82%  
64 11% 72%  
65 7% 61% Median
66 10% 54%  
67 19% 44%  
68 6% 26%  
69 8% 19%  
70 3% 12%  
71 4% 8%  
72 1.3% 5%  
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.8% 3%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 1.5% 99.4%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 5% 94%  
59 7% 89%  
60 7% 82%  
61 8% 75%  
62 10% 67% Median
63 7% 57%  
64 12% 51%  
65 14% 38%  
66 11% 25%  
67 4% 14%  
68 2% 10%  
69 5% 8%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.1%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.7% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.8%  
54 2% 97%  
55 4% 95%  
56 7% 90%  
57 10% 83%  
58 9% 74%  
59 11% 65% Median
60 7% 54%  
61 9% 47%  
62 16% 37%  
63 11% 21%  
64 4% 10%  
65 2% 6%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 1.4% 98.9%  
53 4% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 5% 89%  
56 9% 84%  
57 9% 74%  
58 12% 65% Median
59 11% 53%  
60 11% 42%  
61 10% 31% Last Result
62 4% 20%  
63 10% 16%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 1.2% 99.0%  
44 2% 98%  
45 6% 96%  
46 5% 90%  
47 12% 85% Last Result
48 13% 73% Median
49 8% 60%  
50 14% 52%  
51 9% 38%  
52 5% 29%  
53 7% 24%  
54 5% 17%  
55 5% 12%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.5%  
19 2% 98.7%  
20 4% 96%  
21 7% 92%  
22 10% 85%  
23 15% 75% Median
24 11% 60%  
25 15% 49%  
26 6% 34%  
27 5% 28%  
28 8% 23%  
29 7% 15%  
30 2% 8%  
31 3% 6%  
32 0.8% 3%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations