Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 25–31 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.4% 23.5–27.4% 23.0–28.0% 22.5–28.5% 21.6–29.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 21.2% 19.5–23.1% 19.0–23.7% 18.5–24.2% 17.7–25.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.3% 10.0–12.9% 9.7–13.3% 9.3–13.7% 8.7–14.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.8% 8.5–11.2% 8.2–11.6% 7.9–12.0% 7.4–12.7%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Rødt 4.7% 8.4% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2% 6.7–10.5% 6.2–11.2%
Venstre 4.6% 4.8% 3.9–5.9% 3.7–6.2% 3.5–6.4% 3.1–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.1–4.5% 1.8–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 45 41–49 40–50 40–51 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 39 37–44 36–45 35–45 33–47
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 17–23 17–24 17–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 17 14–20 13–20 13–21 12–23
Senterpartiet 28 16 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Rødt 8 15 12–17 12–18 11–18 10–20
Venstre 8 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–3 1–7 1–7 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 5% 99.0%  
41 5% 94%  
42 11% 89%  
43 10% 79%  
44 14% 68%  
45 17% 54% Median
46 11% 37%  
47 9% 26%  
48 3% 17%  
49 8% 14%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.6% 1.5%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.2%  
35 2% 98%  
36 5% 96%  
37 20% 91%  
38 17% 71%  
39 10% 54% Median
40 13% 44%  
41 7% 31%  
42 10% 24%  
43 3% 14%  
44 6% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.5% 2%  
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.3% 99.8%  
16 1.0% 99.5%  
17 12% 98%  
18 14% 87%  
19 14% 73%  
20 17% 59% Median
21 17% 42% Last Result
22 15% 25%  
23 5% 10%  
24 2% 6%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.4% 0.7%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.6%  
13 3% 98% Last Result
14 7% 95%  
15 13% 88%  
16 16% 75%  
17 19% 59% Median
18 17% 41%  
19 7% 23%  
20 12% 16%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 5% 98%  
14 10% 93%  
15 17% 83%  
16 21% 66% Median
17 26% 45%  
18 9% 19%  
19 6% 10%  
20 2% 4%  
21 0.6% 1.0%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.2%  
12 10% 96%  
13 16% 87%  
14 16% 71%  
15 21% 54% Median
16 17% 33%  
17 11% 16%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 9% 93%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0.3% 84%  
7 15% 84%  
8 22% 69% Last Result, Median
9 31% 47%  
10 9% 16%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.3% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0.9% 98%  
2 51% 97% Median
3 29% 46% Last Result
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.8% 17%  
7 11% 16%  
8 4% 5%  
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 44% 99.6%  
2 41% 56% Median
3 8% 14% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 1.1% 7%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 97% 86–97 86–98 84–100 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 89 90% 85–94 83–95 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 87 78% 82–92 81–94 80–94 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 78 4% 73–82 72–84 71–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 78 3% 73–83 72–84 71–85 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 76 1.1% 71–81 70–82 69–83 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 75 0.3% 70–79 69–80 68–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 73 0.1% 68–78 68–79 66–80 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 72 0% 68–78 66–80 66–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 73 0.1% 68–76 67–78 66–79 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 64 0% 61–70 60–71 59–71 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 60 0% 56–66 55–67 54–69 52–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 59 0% 54–63 53–65 53–66 51–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 56 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 49–65
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 52–60 50–61 49–63 47–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 56 0% 52–59 51–61 50–62 48–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 27 0% 23–31 21–32 20–33 18–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.2%  
84 2% 98.8%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 5% 95%  
87 4% 90%  
88 4% 86%  
89 7% 81%  
90 12% 74%  
91 9% 62% Median
92 9% 53%  
93 4% 44%  
94 11% 40%  
95 9% 29%  
96 5% 20% Last Result
97 6% 15%  
98 5% 9%  
99 1.3% 4%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.6% 1.1%  
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 99.3%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 4% 97%  
84 3% 94%  
85 4% 90% Majority
86 11% 86%  
87 9% 76%  
88 11% 67%  
89 11% 56% Median
90 8% 45%  
91 10% 37%  
92 7% 27%  
93 6% 19%  
94 4% 13%  
95 5% 10%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.7% 3%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 0.7% 99.3%  
80 3% 98.6%  
81 1.5% 96%  
82 5% 95%  
83 4% 90%  
84 8% 86%  
85 9% 78% Majority
86 13% 68%  
87 12% 56% Median
88 8% 44%  
89 7% 36%  
90 9% 29%  
91 8% 20%  
92 4% 12%  
93 2% 9%  
94 4% 6%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 1.2% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 1.0% 99.3%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 97%  
73 6% 93%  
74 8% 87%  
75 7% 79%  
76 10% 72% Median
77 10% 63%  
78 9% 52%  
79 12% 43%  
80 9% 31%  
81 6% 22%  
82 6% 16%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 99.2%  
71 2% 98% Last Result
72 5% 97%  
73 6% 92%  
74 7% 86%  
75 7% 79%  
76 10% 72%  
77 11% 62% Median
78 12% 51%  
79 6% 39%  
80 6% 34%  
81 10% 28%  
82 6% 18%  
83 5% 12%  
84 3% 6%  
85 0.8% 3% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.7% 99.1% Last Result
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 7% 94%  
72 5% 86%  
73 10% 81%  
74 10% 71%  
75 9% 61% Median
76 9% 52%  
77 11% 43%  
78 6% 32%  
79 9% 26%  
80 6% 17%  
81 3% 11%  
82 5% 8%  
83 1.0% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.1% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 0.8% 99.1%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 5% 95%  
71 8% 90%  
72 9% 82%  
73 10% 73%  
74 10% 63% Median
75 14% 53%  
76 15% 39%  
77 6% 24%  
78 6% 18%  
79 4% 12%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.3%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 1.5% 97%  
68 6% 96%  
69 3% 90%  
70 12% 86%  
71 10% 74%  
72 9% 64% Last Result
73 11% 55% Median
74 13% 44%  
75 6% 31%  
76 6% 25%  
77 7% 19%  
78 5% 12%  
79 4% 8%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.4%  
65 1.2% 99.1% Last Result
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 7% 93%  
69 7% 86%  
70 6% 79%  
71 12% 73%  
72 13% 61%  
73 9% 48% Median
74 10% 39%  
75 7% 30%  
76 5% 22%  
77 5% 17%  
78 4% 12%  
79 2% 8%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 1.0% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 2% 97%  
68 5% 95%  
69 7% 89%  
70 10% 83%  
71 9% 73%  
72 10% 65% Median
73 16% 55%  
74 13% 38%  
75 7% 25%  
76 8% 18%  
77 2% 10%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 1.2% 1.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
58 0.8% 99.3%  
59 2% 98.6%  
60 6% 96%  
61 8% 91%  
62 7% 83%  
63 15% 75%  
64 10% 60%  
65 8% 50% Median
66 8% 42%  
67 9% 34%  
68 7% 25%  
69 8% 18%  
70 3% 10%  
71 5% 8%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.1%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 0.5% 99.2%  
54 1.4% 98.7%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93%  
57 6% 90%  
58 10% 83%  
59 16% 73% Median
60 9% 58%  
61 10% 49%  
62 10% 39%  
63 8% 29%  
64 5% 21%  
65 5% 16%  
66 3% 11%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.5% 3%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.6%  
52 1.1% 98.9%  
53 3% 98%  
54 5% 95%  
55 7% 90%  
56 6% 82%  
57 13% 76% Median
58 13% 64%  
59 9% 50%  
60 16% 41%  
61 5% 25%  
62 8% 20%  
63 3% 12%  
64 3% 9%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 1.0% 1.3%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 1.1% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 6% 97%  
53 8% 91%  
54 10% 82%  
55 15% 72%  
56 11% 58% Median
57 12% 46%  
58 8% 34%  
59 6% 25%  
60 8% 19%  
61 5% 11% Last Result
62 3% 6%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.5% 1.5%  
65 0.7% 1.0%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
48 0.8% 99.1%  
49 1.1% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 4% 95%  
52 6% 90%  
53 10% 84%  
54 9% 74%  
55 14% 66% Median
56 15% 52%  
57 7% 37%  
58 10% 30%  
59 4% 20%  
60 7% 16%  
61 4% 9%  
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.5% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.1% 99.4%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 97%  
52 8% 93%  
53 8% 85%  
54 14% 77%  
55 11% 63% Median
56 13% 51%  
57 17% 39%  
58 7% 22%  
59 6% 14%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 1.0% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 1.0% 99.8%  
19 0.7% 98.8%  
20 3% 98%  
21 2% 95%  
22 3% 94%  
23 4% 90%  
24 3% 86%  
25 13% 84%  
26 10% 70% Median
27 16% 60%  
28 14% 44%  
29 8% 30%  
30 6% 23%  
31 8% 17%  
32 5% 9%  
33 3% 5%  
34 0.8% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations