Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 25–31 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.2% 24.5–28.1% 24.0–28.7% 23.5–29.1% 22.7–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 20.0% 18.4–21.8% 18.0–22.3% 17.6–22.7% 16.9–23.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.5–14.1% 10.2–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.5% 8.1–13.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.3%
Rødt 4.7% 8.3% 7.2–9.6% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.9%
Venstre 4.6% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 47 43–51 42–52 42–52 41–54
Arbeiderpartiet 48 37 36–40 35–42 34–43 32–44
Fremskrittspartiet 21 21 19–24 18–24 18–25 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 14–23
Senterpartiet 28 16 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Rødt 8 15 12–17 12–18 12–18 10–19
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 2–9 0–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–3 1–7 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.6%  
42 5% 98%  
43 5% 94%  
44 8% 89%  
45 11% 81%  
46 16% 70%  
47 13% 54% Median
48 16% 41%  
49 6% 25%  
50 6% 20%  
51 7% 14%  
52 5% 7%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 1.0% 99.0%  
34 2% 98%  
35 5% 96%  
36 12% 92%  
37 30% 79% Median
38 15% 50%  
39 12% 35%  
40 13% 23%  
41 4% 10%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 5% 98%  
19 13% 93%  
20 21% 81%  
21 18% 59% Last Result, Median
22 15% 42%  
23 13% 27%  
24 10% 14%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
14 3% 99.5%  
15 6% 97%  
16 12% 91%  
17 19% 79%  
18 23% 59% Median
19 14% 36%  
20 14% 22%  
21 5% 8%  
22 2% 3%  
23 1.1% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.8%  
13 5% 98.7%  
14 11% 94%  
15 15% 82%  
16 26% 67% Median
17 21% 41%  
18 12% 20%  
19 4% 8%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.4%  
12 9% 98%  
13 19% 88%  
14 14% 70%  
15 38% 55% Median
16 6% 18%  
17 6% 11%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.8% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 24% 99.8%  
3 30% 76% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0.5% 46%  
7 21% 46%  
8 17% 24% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0.3% 99.5%  
2 31% 99.2%  
3 37% 68% Last Result, Median
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 2% 31%  
7 9% 29%  
8 16% 20%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 28% 99.9%  
2 54% 72% Median
3 9% 18% Last Result
4 0.3% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0.6% 9%  
7 5% 8%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 98% 89–99 87–99 85–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 89 86% 84–93 83–94 82–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 87 71% 82–91 81–92 79–93 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 80 13% 74–85 73–85 72–86 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 78 6% 74–83 72–85 71–86 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 78 2% 72–83 71–84 70–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 74 0.2% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 73 0.1% 69–78 67–79 66–81 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 73 0.1% 68–76 68–78 67–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 72 0% 68–76 67–77 66–78 64–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 68 0% 64–73 62–74 62–75 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 60 0% 56–65 55–67 54–68 52–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 58 0% 54–63 53–63 52–64 50–65
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 52–61 50–62 48–63 47–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 56 0% 53–59 52–60 51–61 49–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 54 0% 51–57 50–58 49–58 46–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 25 0% 21–29 20–31 19–32 17–33

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 1.3% 99.5%  
85 0.9% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 1.5% 96%  
88 4% 94%  
89 9% 90%  
90 5% 82% Median
91 5% 77%  
92 8% 72%  
93 13% 64%  
94 15% 51%  
95 9% 37%  
96 9% 28% Last Result
97 5% 19%  
98 4% 15%  
99 7% 11%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.9% 2%  
102 0.7% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.4%  
81 0.9% 98.7%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 3% 97%  
84 8% 94%  
85 8% 86% Majority
86 6% 78%  
87 6% 73%  
88 7% 66% Median
89 16% 60%  
90 15% 44%  
91 7% 28%  
92 8% 21%  
93 4% 13%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.6% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.3%  
79 1.2% 98.6%  
80 1.4% 97%  
81 3% 96%  
82 4% 93%  
83 11% 89%  
84 7% 78%  
85 10% 71% Majority
86 7% 62% Median
87 12% 54%  
88 17% 42%  
89 7% 25%  
90 7% 18%  
91 4% 11%  
92 4% 7%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 1.1% 99.2% Last Result
72 0.9% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 7% 94%  
75 2% 87%  
76 8% 85% Median
77 7% 77%  
78 9% 71%  
79 8% 61%  
80 16% 54%  
81 8% 38%  
82 6% 30%  
83 6% 23%  
84 4% 17%  
85 10% 13% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 3% 97%  
73 2% 94%  
74 5% 92%  
75 5% 87%  
76 7% 82% Median
77 17% 74%  
78 15% 57%  
79 7% 42%  
80 9% 35%  
81 5% 26%  
82 7% 21%  
83 5% 14%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.4% 1.2%  
88 0.2% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.4% 0.4%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
69 0.9% 98.7%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 8% 94%  
73 4% 86%  
74 7% 82% Median
75 5% 75%  
76 11% 70%  
77 9% 59%  
78 16% 50%  
79 9% 35%  
80 6% 26%  
81 5% 20%  
82 3% 15%  
83 6% 12%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.9% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 5% 97%  
70 5% 92%  
71 6% 86%  
72 10% 80%  
73 6% 71% Median
74 17% 64%  
75 17% 47%  
76 7% 30%  
77 9% 24%  
78 4% 15%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 7%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.6% 1.4%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 1.2% 99.3% Last Result
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 12% 92%  
70 8% 80%  
71 9% 71% Median
72 7% 63%  
73 8% 56%  
74 8% 48%  
75 13% 40%  
76 9% 27%  
77 6% 18%  
78 4% 11%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.4%  
66 1.4% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 6% 95%  
69 9% 90%  
70 5% 80%  
71 7% 75%  
72 17% 67% Last Result, Median
73 9% 51%  
74 15% 41%  
75 10% 26%  
76 7% 16%  
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.6% 99.4%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 4% 97%  
68 9% 93%  
69 4% 85%  
70 7% 80%  
71 12% 73% Median
72 16% 62%  
73 20% 45%  
74 7% 25%  
75 7% 18%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 3% 4%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 1.0% 99.8%  
61 1.2% 98.8%  
62 4% 98%  
63 3% 94%  
64 5% 91%  
65 6% 86%  
66 11% 80%  
67 12% 69%  
68 17% 57% Median
69 7% 40%  
70 7% 33%  
71 5% 26%  
72 9% 21%  
73 6% 12%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.3% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 1.0% 99.3%  
54 1.5% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 9% 89%  
58 11% 80% Median
59 10% 68%  
60 12% 58%  
61 12% 46%  
62 7% 34%  
63 7% 28%  
64 6% 21%  
65 6% 14%  
66 3% 9%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.4% 1.1%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 1.5% 99.1%  
52 1.5% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 9% 89%  
56 12% 80% Median
57 12% 68%  
58 8% 56%  
59 15% 47%  
60 8% 33%  
61 8% 24%  
62 4% 16%  
63 7% 12%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
48 2% 99.1%  
49 1.4% 97%  
50 3% 96%  
51 2% 93%  
52 9% 90%  
53 6% 81% Median
54 10% 75%  
55 11% 65%  
56 10% 54%  
57 10% 44%  
58 9% 34%  
59 5% 24%  
60 5% 19%  
61 4% 13%  
62 5% 9%  
63 3% 5%  
64 0.6% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 99.4%  
51 3% 98.5%  
52 5% 96%  
53 9% 91%  
54 8% 82%  
55 19% 73% Median
56 11% 54%  
57 22% 43%  
58 9% 21%  
59 4% 12%  
60 4% 9%  
61 3% 5% Last Result
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.4% 99.4%  
48 1.2% 99.0%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 7% 94%  
52 8% 86%  
53 18% 79% Median
54 17% 60%  
55 14% 43%  
56 14% 29%  
57 9% 14%  
58 4% 6%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 1.3% 99.2%  
19 3% 98%  
20 4% 95%  
21 3% 91%  
22 11% 88% Median
23 10% 77%  
24 5% 67%  
25 12% 61%  
26 11% 49%  
27 18% 38%  
28 7% 21%  
29 4% 14%  
30 4% 10%  
31 3% 6%  
32 2% 4%  
33 0.7% 1.1%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations