Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 1–2 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.7% 23.8–27.8% 23.3–28.3% 22.8–28.8% 22.0–29.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 23.4% 21.6–25.4% 21.1–26.0% 20.6–26.4% 19.8–27.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.2% 10.8–13.8% 10.5–14.2% 10.1–14.6% 9.5–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.5% 7.4–9.9% 7.1–10.3% 6.8–10.7% 6.3–11.4%
Rødt 4.7% 8.4% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2% 6.7–10.5% 6.2–11.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 7.2% 6.2–8.5% 5.9–8.9% 5.6–9.2% 5.2–9.8%
Venstre 4.6% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.7% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.3–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.7% 1.7–3.9% 1.4–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 45 43–48 42–49 40–50 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 45 40–48 39–49 38–49 37–51
Fremskrittspartiet 21 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 12–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Rødt 8 15 12–17 12–18 11–18 10–19
Senterpartiet 28 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Venstre 8 9 7–10 3–11 3–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–8 2–9 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 95%  
43 14% 91%  
44 14% 77%  
45 17% 63% Median
46 8% 46%  
47 15% 37%  
48 13% 22%  
49 5% 9%  
50 3% 5%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.1%  
53 0.2% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.9% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 6% 96%  
40 2% 91%  
41 4% 88%  
42 8% 84%  
43 7% 76%  
44 12% 69%  
45 26% 57% Median
46 12% 31%  
47 8% 19%  
48 5% 11% Last Result
49 4% 5%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.7% 0.9%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 5% 98%  
19 13% 93%  
20 23% 80%  
21 16% 57% Last Result, Median
22 15% 42%  
23 11% 26%  
24 7% 15%  
25 6% 8%  
26 1.3% 3%  
27 0.4% 1.2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.8%  
11 3% 99.2%  
12 7% 96%  
13 8% 89% Last Result
14 23% 81%  
15 25% 57% Median
16 17% 32%  
17 8% 15%  
18 4% 7%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.3%  
12 10% 97%  
13 11% 87%  
14 27% 77%  
15 25% 50% Median
16 13% 25%  
17 7% 12%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.5%  
10 8% 98%  
11 10% 90%  
12 24% 80%  
13 25% 56% Median
14 18% 30%  
15 8% 12%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.0% 1.4%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 5% 98%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.8% 93%  
7 9% 92%  
8 29% 83% Last Result
9 27% 54% Median
10 19% 27%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0.7% 99.2%  
2 31% 98.5%  
3 32% 68% Last Result, Median
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 2% 36%  
7 22% 34%  
8 9% 12%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 71% 97% Median
2 23% 26%  
3 1.5% 3% Last Result
4 0% 1.4%  
5 0% 1.4%  
6 0.2% 1.4%  
7 0.9% 1.2%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 97% 87–96 86–97 84–99 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 88 82% 83–92 82–94 81–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet 97 87 72% 81–90 80–92 80–93 76–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 81 12% 76–85 75–87 74–88 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 80 7% 75–84 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 77 2% 74–81 71–83 70–84 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 75 0.3% 71–80 70–80 69–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0.2% 71–79 69–81 68–81 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 74 0% 69–77 68–78 66–79 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 72 0% 68–75 67–77 65–77 64–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 63 0% 58–67 57–68 56–69 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 62 0% 56–65 55–67 54–68 52–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 59 0% 55–62 54–64 53–65 51–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–65 49–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 49–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 25 0% 22–29 20–30 19–31 17–33

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.5%  
84 1.4% 98.8%  
85 1.1% 97% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 5% 94%  
88 4% 89%  
89 6% 85%  
90 6% 79%  
91 9% 73% Median
92 22% 64%  
93 7% 42%  
94 16% 36%  
95 7% 20%  
96 4% 13% Last Result
97 4% 9%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.4% 3%  
100 0.7% 1.4%  
101 0.4% 0.7%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.3% 99.4%  
80 0.8% 99.1%  
81 3% 98%  
82 4% 95%  
83 3% 92%  
84 6% 88%  
85 5% 82% Majority
86 7% 77%  
87 8% 70%  
88 25% 62%  
89 14% 37% Median
90 6% 23%  
91 5% 17%  
92 4% 12%  
93 2% 8%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.2%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 99.3%  
79 0.9% 98.9%  
80 3% 98%  
81 5% 95%  
82 3% 90%  
83 6% 87%  
84 9% 80%  
85 5% 72% Majority
86 6% 67%  
87 28% 61%  
88 13% 33% Median
89 5% 20%  
90 7% 16%  
91 2% 9%  
92 3% 7%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
72 0.6% 99.4%  
73 1.1% 98.8%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 92%  
77 3% 89%  
78 9% 86%  
79 5% 77% Median
80 14% 71%  
81 28% 57%  
82 6% 30%  
83 5% 24%  
84 8% 19%  
85 4% 12% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 0.9% 99.2%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 95%  
75 3% 90%  
76 5% 88%  
77 8% 83%  
78 6% 75% Median
79 15% 68%  
80 25% 53%  
81 7% 29%  
82 7% 21%  
83 4% 14%  
84 4% 10%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.0%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 2% 92%  
74 9% 90%  
75 16% 81%  
76 7% 65%  
77 13% 58% Median
78 9% 45%  
79 6% 37%  
80 6% 31%  
81 16% 25%  
82 3% 9%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 1.2% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.4%  
68 1.2% 98.9%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 95%  
71 5% 92%  
72 11% 87%  
73 13% 76%  
74 9% 63%  
75 6% 54% Median
76 6% 48%  
77 15% 41%  
78 12% 26%  
79 3% 14%  
80 7% 11%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 1.4%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 1.3% 99.3%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 6% 91%  
72 6% 86% Last Result
73 7% 79%  
74 15% 72%  
75 9% 57%  
76 21% 48% Median
77 8% 27%  
78 6% 18%  
79 3% 13%  
80 3% 9%  
81 4% 6%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.1%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.0%  
67 1.1% 97%  
68 4% 96%  
69 5% 92%  
70 5% 87%  
71 6% 83%  
72 13% 76%  
73 13% 63%  
74 24% 50% Median
75 9% 26%  
76 5% 17%  
77 4% 12%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.7%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 5% 96%  
68 5% 91%  
69 6% 86%  
70 9% 79%  
71 10% 71%  
72 15% 61%  
73 23% 46% Median
74 10% 23%  
75 4% 14%  
76 4% 10%  
77 4% 6%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.2% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 4% 96%  
63 10% 92%  
64 8% 82%  
65 13% 73%  
66 9% 61% Median
67 12% 51%  
68 6% 39%  
69 14% 32%  
70 7% 18%  
71 3% 11%  
72 5% 9%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.4% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.8%  
54 0.8% 99.1%  
55 0.7% 98%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 96%  
58 3% 91%  
59 8% 87%  
60 4% 80%  
61 16% 75%  
62 6% 60% Median
63 15% 54%  
64 7% 38%  
65 11% 31%  
66 10% 20%  
67 3% 10%  
68 4% 7%  
69 1.2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.5%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.8%  
53 1.0% 99.0%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93%  
57 7% 90%  
58 5% 83%  
59 7% 78%  
60 15% 71%  
61 6% 56% Median
62 15% 51%  
63 7% 36%  
64 10% 29%  
65 10% 19%  
66 3% 9%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.2% 3%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.9% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 2% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 11% 83%  
58 11% 73%  
59 16% 61%  
60 12% 46% Median
61 16% 33% Last Result
62 7% 17%  
63 3% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.4% 0.9%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 1.0% 99.3%  
51 0.8% 98%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 4% 91%  
55 7% 86%  
56 6% 80%  
57 12% 74% Median
58 14% 62%  
59 17% 48%  
60 13% 31%  
61 5% 18%  
62 4% 13%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.9% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.5%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 4% 92%  
54 5% 87%  
55 10% 82%  
56 7% 72%  
57 17% 65%  
58 18% 48% Median
59 16% 29%  
60 4% 14%  
61 4% 9%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.4% 99.6%  
18 1.2% 99.2%  
19 2% 98%  
20 2% 96%  
21 3% 94%  
22 6% 91%  
23 11% 84%  
24 9% 73%  
25 19% 64% Median
26 8% 46%  
27 15% 38%  
28 6% 23%  
29 10% 17%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.3% 4%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations