Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 9–14 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Rødt 4.7% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Venstre 4.6% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 45 42–49 41–49 41–50 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 41 38–45 37–46 37–46 35–48
Fremskrittspartiet 21 22 19–25 19–26 18–27 17–28
Rødt 8 16 14–19 13–20 13–21 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 13–18 12–19 12–19 11–21
Senterpartiet 28 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–19
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 2–3 0–7 0–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 4% 98%  
42 11% 94%  
43 6% 83%  
44 18% 77%  
45 16% 59% Median
46 14% 43%  
47 9% 29%  
48 6% 20%  
49 8% 13%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 1.4% 99.2%  
37 7% 98%  
38 10% 91%  
39 13% 81%  
40 14% 68%  
41 14% 54% Median
42 10% 41%  
43 8% 30%  
44 7% 23%  
45 9% 15%  
46 3% 6%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.8% 1.2% Last Result
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 9% 96%  
20 17% 87%  
21 12% 69% Last Result
22 13% 57% Median
23 15% 44%  
24 10% 29%  
25 10% 19%  
26 5% 9%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 1.2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.2%  
14 23% 95%  
15 15% 71%  
16 13% 57% Median
17 10% 44%  
18 10% 34%  
19 15% 24%  
20 6% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 1.1% 1.3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.8%  
12 4% 98.7%  
13 6% 95% Last Result
14 14% 89%  
15 17% 75%  
16 29% 58% Median
17 16% 29%  
18 7% 13%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.7%  
12 6% 98%  
13 16% 92%  
14 23% 77%  
15 25% 54% Median
16 13% 29%  
17 10% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 0.9% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 52% 98% Median
3 25% 46%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 3% 22%  
7 10% 19%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 28% 100%  
2 39% 72% Median
3 11% 32% Last Result
4 0.2% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 1.1% 21%  
7 11% 20%  
8 8% 9%  
9 0.7% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 3% 94%  
2 59% 91% Median
3 24% 32% Last Result
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.5% 8%  
7 5% 8%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 91 96% 86–96 85–98 83–98 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 88 82% 83–93 80–94 79–96 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 97 88 79% 83–92 82–94 81–95 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 76 3% 73–82 71–84 70–85 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 77 2% 72–80 70–82 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 76 1.2% 71–81 70–82 69–83 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 74 0.2% 70–80 69–81 68–83 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 74 0.1% 68–78 66–79 65–80 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 70 0% 66–75 64–77 63–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 72 0% 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 67 0% 62–72 61–73 61–74 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 61 0% 56–67 55–69 54–69 53–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 58 0% 55–62 53–65 52–67 51–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 57 0% 53–61 52–61 51–62 50–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 56 0% 52–60 51–60 50–61 49–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 51 0% 47–55 46–56 45–58 44–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 20 0% 17–25 16–26 16–27 14–30

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.7% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.1%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 1.4% 97%  
85 6% 96% Majority
86 5% 90%  
87 4% 85%  
88 9% 81%  
89 10% 72%  
90 6% 62% Median
91 8% 56%  
92 17% 48%  
93 7% 30%  
94 7% 24%  
95 6% 17%  
96 4% 11%  
97 2% 7%  
98 3% 5%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 2% 99.7%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 3% 97%  
81 1.4% 94%  
82 2% 93%  
83 3% 91%  
84 7% 89%  
85 5% 82% Majority
86 12% 77% Median
87 10% 66%  
88 10% 56%  
89 8% 46%  
90 10% 38%  
91 9% 28%  
92 8% 18%  
93 3% 10%  
94 3% 7%  
95 0.9% 4%  
96 0.9% 3% Last Result
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.4%  
99 0.9% 1.0%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.9% 99.5%  
80 0.7% 98.6%  
81 2% 98%  
82 5% 96%  
83 6% 91%  
84 6% 85%  
85 7% 79% Majority
86 6% 71%  
87 9% 65%  
88 11% 56% Median
89 8% 45%  
90 10% 37%  
91 12% 27%  
92 6% 15%  
93 4% 9%  
94 2% 6%  
95 1.2% 4%  
96 1.1% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
98 0.6% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 4% 94%  
73 5% 91%  
74 7% 85%  
75 17% 78%  
76 13% 61% Median
77 8% 48%  
78 8% 40%  
79 7% 32%  
80 8% 25%  
81 2% 17%  
82 5% 15%  
83 4% 10%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.8% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 94% Last Result
72 6% 91%  
73 7% 84% Median
74 9% 77%  
75 5% 68%  
76 12% 63%  
77 17% 51%  
78 7% 34%  
79 10% 27%  
80 9% 18%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.7% 3%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.3%  
68 1.0% 98.9%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 5% 92%  
72 7% 87% Last Result
73 4% 81%  
74 8% 77%  
75 13% 68% Median
76 8% 55%  
77 12% 47%  
78 10% 35%  
79 4% 25%  
80 6% 20%  
81 5% 14%  
82 6% 10%  
83 1.1% 4%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 0.8% 99.0%  
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 6% 92%  
71 5% 87%  
72 10% 81%  
73 13% 72%  
74 13% 58% Median
75 12% 46%  
76 7% 34%  
77 7% 27%  
78 7% 20%  
79 3% 13%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.5% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.5%  
66 3% 97%  
67 3% 95%  
68 4% 92% Last Result
69 6% 88%  
70 7% 82%  
71 6% 76% Median
72 10% 69%  
73 8% 59%  
74 10% 51%  
75 9% 41%  
76 12% 32%  
77 8% 20%  
78 4% 12%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 1.0% 1.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.1%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 95% Last Result
66 4% 93%  
67 9% 89%  
68 8% 80%  
69 9% 72% Median
70 13% 63%  
71 10% 50%  
72 8% 40%  
73 6% 33%  
74 11% 27%  
75 6% 16%  
76 4% 10%  
77 3% 6%  
78 1.4% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 1.0% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 1.2% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 9% 91%  
69 8% 83%  
70 8% 74%  
71 14% 67%  
72 16% 52% Median
73 13% 36%  
74 10% 23%  
75 6% 14%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.3% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 1.3% 99.3%  
61 4% 98%  
62 6% 94%  
63 5% 88%  
64 10% 83%  
65 6% 73%  
66 9% 66%  
67 9% 57% Median
68 7% 48%  
69 9% 41%  
70 8% 32%  
71 6% 24%  
72 9% 17%  
73 4% 8%  
74 3% 5%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.3%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 2% 99.0%  
55 2% 97%  
56 5% 95%  
57 4% 89%  
58 10% 86%  
59 12% 76%  
60 12% 64% Median
61 6% 52%  
62 11% 46%  
63 7% 35%  
64 5% 27%  
65 7% 23%  
66 6% 16%  
67 2% 11%  
68 3% 9%  
69 5% 6%  
70 0.5% 1.0%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.6%  
52 2% 98.9%  
53 3% 97%  
54 4% 94%  
55 6% 90%  
56 8% 84%  
57 17% 76%  
58 17% 59% Median
59 11% 42%  
60 13% 32%  
61 5% 18%  
62 3% 13%  
63 1.3% 9%  
64 2% 8%  
65 2% 6%  
66 1.3% 4%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 3% 96%  
53 4% 93%  
54 12% 89%  
55 11% 77%  
56 13% 66%  
57 13% 53% Median
58 14% 40%  
59 9% 26%  
60 6% 17%  
61 7% 11% Last Result
62 3% 5%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 4% 97%  
52 5% 93%  
53 8% 87%  
54 11% 79%  
55 12% 68%  
56 17% 56% Median
57 10% 38%  
58 12% 29%  
59 6% 16%  
60 6% 11%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 3% 99.1%  
46 5% 96%  
47 4% 91% Last Result
48 4% 87%  
49 11% 83% Median
50 14% 71%  
51 13% 57%  
52 11% 44%  
53 13% 33%  
54 6% 20%  
55 6% 15%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.3%  
16 4% 98%  
17 8% 94%  
18 14% 86%  
19 10% 72% Median
20 18% 62%  
21 8% 44%  
22 9% 36%  
23 8% 26%  
24 6% 18%  
25 3% 12%  
26 4% 9%  
27 3% 5%  
28 0.8% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.5%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations