Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 15–20 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.4% 23.7–27.3% 23.2–27.8% 22.8–28.3% 21.9–29.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.6–25.1% 20.2–25.6% 19.4–26.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.2% 10.0–12.7% 9.7–13.1% 9.4–13.4% 8.8–14.1%
Rødt 4.7% 10.5% 9.3–11.9% 9.0–12.3% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.9%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Venstre 4.6% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 44 41–48 41–49 40–50 39–52
Arbeiderpartiet 48 44 39–47 38–48 37–49 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 21 20 17–22 17–23 17–24 15–25
Rødt 8 17 15–20 14–22 14–23 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 14 12–16 11–18 11–18 10–19
Senterpartiet 28 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 9–18
Venstre 8 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–3 1–7 1–7 1–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 8% 96%  
42 18% 88%  
43 16% 70%  
44 12% 53% Median
45 12% 41%  
46 7% 29%  
47 7% 22%  
48 7% 15%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 5%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 6% 97%  
39 5% 91%  
40 6% 86%  
41 8% 80%  
42 7% 71%  
43 6% 65%  
44 16% 59% Median
45 9% 43%  
46 10% 33%  
47 13% 23%  
48 6% 10% Last Result
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.7%  
16 1.2% 99.0%  
17 9% 98%  
18 14% 89%  
19 17% 75%  
20 24% 58% Median
21 18% 33% Last Result
22 9% 15%  
23 3% 6%  
24 1.1% 3%  
25 1.2% 1.4%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.7%  
14 8% 98.8%  
15 7% 91%  
16 18% 85%  
17 17% 67% Median
18 15% 50%  
19 14% 35%  
20 11% 21%  
21 4% 10%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 1.2% 1.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.8%  
11 5% 98.9%  
12 13% 94%  
13 13% 80% Last Result
14 25% 67% Median
15 22% 42%  
16 12% 20%  
17 3% 8%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.5% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.8%  
10 3% 98%  
11 8% 96%  
12 31% 88%  
13 15% 57% Median
14 22% 42%  
15 12% 20%  
16 6% 8%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 9% 92%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.6% 83%  
7 19% 82%  
8 36% 63% Last Result, Median
9 17% 27%  
10 8% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 45% 99.8%  
2 43% 55% Median
3 5% 12% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 2% 7%  
7 4% 5%  
8 1.5% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 12% 71%  
2 55% 59% Median
3 3% 4% Last Result
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.4%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 90 96% 87–95 85–96 83–97 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 97 88 89% 84–93 83–94 82–95 79–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 86 66% 81–91 79–91 78–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 77 2% 73–82 72–82 70–84 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 74 0.3% 70–79 69–80 67–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 74 0.1% 70–78 68–80 67–80 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 73 0% 68–77 67–78 66–80 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 73 0% 68–77 67–78 66–79 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 71 0% 67–76 66–77 64–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 71 0% 66–75 65–76 64–76 62–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 63 0% 60–69 60–70 59–72 57–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 60 0% 55–64 54–65 53–66 50–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 58 0% 53–62 52–63 51–63 49–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 58 0% 53–62 52–62 51–62 49–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 57 0% 52–61 51–62 50–62 48–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 53 0% 49–57 48–58 46–59 45–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 22 0% 18–25 16–26 15–26 14–29

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 2% 99.0%  
84 1.5% 97%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 2% 93%  
87 11% 91%  
88 9% 80%  
89 13% 71%  
90 12% 58% Median
91 13% 47%  
92 8% 34%  
93 5% 26%  
94 4% 21%  
95 8% 17%  
96 5% 9%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.3%  
100 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 1.1% 98.9%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 3% 92%  
85 4% 89% Majority
86 14% 85%  
87 10% 71%  
88 13% 60% Median
89 12% 47%  
90 9% 35%  
91 4% 26%  
92 5% 22%  
93 8% 17%  
94 5% 9%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.6% 1.5%  
97 0.2% 0.9% Last Result
98 0.3% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 3% 99.3%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 5% 90%  
82 4% 85%  
83 5% 81%  
84 10% 76%  
85 15% 66% Majority
86 12% 51%  
87 8% 40% Median
88 8% 31%  
89 6% 23%  
90 5% 17%  
91 8% 12%  
92 1.0% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 0.3% 99.1%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95% Last Result
73 3% 93%  
74 3% 90%  
75 16% 87%  
76 13% 71%  
77 13% 58% Median
78 7% 45%  
79 10% 37%  
80 9% 28%  
81 8% 18%  
82 5% 10%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.4%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 5% 93%  
71 6% 88% Last Result
72 5% 82%  
73 15% 78%  
74 17% 63%  
75 11% 46%  
76 7% 34% Median
77 4% 28%  
78 8% 24%  
79 8% 16%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.2%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 1.3% 98.9%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 6% 91%  
71 6% 85%  
72 7% 80%  
73 15% 72%  
74 11% 58%  
75 10% 47% Median
76 9% 37%  
77 15% 28%  
78 5% 13%  
79 2% 8%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 1.2% 99.4%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 5% 94% Last Result
69 5% 89%  
70 7% 84%  
71 13% 77%  
72 13% 64%  
73 19% 51%  
74 5% 32% Median
75 6% 27%  
76 4% 21%  
77 9% 17%  
78 3% 7%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.5%  
82 0.5% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.6%  
65 0.8% 98.8%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 6% 94%  
69 4% 87%  
70 7% 84%  
71 13% 77%  
72 7% 63%  
73 12% 57% Median
74 9% 44%  
75 14% 35%  
76 7% 21%  
77 6% 14%  
78 5% 7%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 1.1% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 98.5%  
65 1.5% 97% Last Result
66 3% 96%  
67 4% 93%  
68 7% 89%  
69 10% 81%  
70 10% 71%  
71 20% 61%  
72 9% 41% Median
73 9% 32%  
74 4% 23%  
75 7% 19%  
76 3% 12%  
77 5% 9%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 5% 94%  
67 6% 89%  
68 7% 83%  
69 6% 75%  
70 15% 69%  
71 7% 54% Median
72 11% 47%  
73 12% 36%  
74 10% 24%  
75 7% 14%  
76 5% 7%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
58 1.0% 99.4%  
59 3% 98%  
60 7% 95%  
61 10% 88%  
62 10% 78%  
63 19% 68%  
64 11% 49% Median
65 11% 38%  
66 5% 27%  
67 7% 22%  
68 3% 15%  
69 6% 12%  
70 1.4% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 1.3% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 4% 88%  
57 4% 83%  
58 10% 79%  
59 13% 70%  
60 12% 57%  
61 10% 45% Median
62 10% 35%  
63 9% 25%  
64 7% 16%  
65 5% 9%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.8% 1.5%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 3% 98.7%  
52 3% 96%  
53 4% 92%  
54 5% 88%  
55 3% 83%  
56 9% 80%  
57 10% 71%  
58 13% 60%  
59 12% 47% Median
60 9% 35%  
61 12% 26%  
62 5% 15%  
63 8% 10%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 5% 94%  
54 6% 88%  
55 7% 83%  
56 11% 76%  
57 4% 65%  
58 14% 61% Median
59 12% 47%  
60 15% 35%  
61 9% 20% Last Result
62 8% 10%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.0%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 1.0% 99.4%  
50 2% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 4% 91%  
53 3% 87%  
54 9% 84%  
55 8% 75%  
56 16% 67%  
57 8% 51% Median
58 5% 42%  
59 16% 37%  
60 8% 21%  
61 7% 13%  
62 5% 6%  
63 1.0% 1.5%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 1.0% 99.7%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 1.3% 97% Last Result
48 4% 96%  
49 5% 92%  
50 7% 87%  
51 10% 80%  
52 16% 70%  
53 15% 54%  
54 12% 39% Median
55 9% 27%  
56 4% 18%  
57 7% 14%  
58 4% 8%  
59 0.8% 3%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 2% 98%  
16 3% 96%  
17 2% 93%  
18 4% 91%  
19 8% 86%  
20 4% 79%  
21 13% 74%  
22 18% 61%  
23 17% 44% Median
24 15% 26%  
25 4% 11%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 0.5% 1.3%  
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations