Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagbladet, 21–23 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.8% 24.8–29.0% 24.2–29.6% 23.7–30.1% 22.7–31.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 25.4% 23.4–27.6% 22.9–28.2% 22.4–28.7% 21.5–29.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.5% 9.2–12.1% 8.8–12.6% 8.5–13.0% 7.9–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.1% 6.9–9.5% 6.6–9.9% 6.3–10.3% 5.8–11.0%
Rødt 4.7% 8.1% 6.9–9.5% 6.6–9.9% 6.3–10.3% 5.8–11.0%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 8.1% 6.9–9.5% 6.6–9.9% 6.3–10.3% 5.8–11.0%
Venstre 4.6% 4.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 3.0–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.2% 1.5–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 47 43–51 43–52 42–53 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 48 48 45–50 43–52 42–53 39–56
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Rødt 8 14 13–16 13–16 12–17 11–17
Senterpartiet 28 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 10–19
Venstre 8 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 1 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.3%  
42 2% 98%  
43 8% 96%  
44 6% 88%  
45 9% 82%  
46 11% 73%  
47 25% 62% Median
48 9% 37%  
49 9% 28%  
50 7% 19%  
51 6% 12%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.3% 4%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.1%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.3%  
41 0.9% 98%  
42 1.3% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 2% 94%  
45 7% 92%  
46 13% 85%  
47 13% 72%  
48 18% 59% Last Result, Median
49 15% 41%  
50 16% 25%  
51 4% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.8%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 0.9% 99.5%  
15 3% 98.6%  
16 5% 95%  
17 16% 90%  
18 18% 74%  
19 25% 56% Median
20 14% 31%  
21 10% 17% Last Result
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3%  
24 1.0% 1.3%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 4% 98.7%  
12 11% 94%  
13 15% 83% Last Result
14 17% 69%  
15 30% 52% Median
16 14% 22%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.9%  
12 3% 98.6%  
13 21% 96%  
14 35% 75% Median
15 30% 40%  
16 8% 10%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.2%  
12 7% 96%  
13 16% 90%  
14 31% 73% Median
15 23% 42%  
16 9% 19%  
17 7% 10%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 7% 91%  
4 0% 85%  
5 0% 85%  
6 0.4% 85%  
7 10% 84%  
8 36% 74% Last Result, Median
9 18% 38%  
10 15% 20%  
11 4% 5%  
12 1.2% 1.5%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 42% 90% Median
2 22% 48%  
3 25% 26% Last Result
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.1% 1.1%  
8 0.9% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 58% 98% Median
2 34% 40%  
3 2% 6% Last Result
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0.1% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 93 98.6% 88–97 86–98 85–99 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 97 91 95% 86–95 85–96 84–97 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 89 95% 86–94 84–95 83–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 80 3% 76–83 74–84 74–85 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 78 2% 74–82 72–83 72–84 69–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 77 1.3% 73–81 72–82 70–84 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 78 1.5% 74–82 73–82 72–83 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 77 0.3% 73–80 72–81 70–82 69–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 75 0.2% 71–79 70–81 68–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 74 0% 70–78 68–79 67–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 66 0% 62–69 60–70 59–71 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 64 0% 60–67 59–69 57–69 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 62 0% 59–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 62 0% 59–65 57–66 56–67 54–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 52–61 50–62 50–63 47–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 24 0% 20–27 18–28 17–29 15–30

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.8% 99.4%  
85 2% 98.6% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 4% 92%  
89 9% 88%  
90 7% 79%  
91 12% 72%  
92 10% 61% Median
93 16% 50%  
94 9% 34%  
95 8% 25%  
96 6% 17%  
97 6% 11%  
98 3% 5%  
99 0.7% 3%  
100 1.1% 2% Last Result
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.4%  
83 1.3% 99.0%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 3% 93%  
87 7% 90%  
88 8% 82%  
89 10% 74%  
90 9% 64%  
91 18% 56% Median
92 10% 38%  
93 6% 28%  
94 7% 22%  
95 8% 15%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 4% Last Result
98 0.4% 2%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.8% 99.5%  
82 0.6% 98.8%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 7% 92%  
87 12% 85%  
88 7% 74%  
89 17% 67% Median
90 12% 49%  
91 9% 37%  
92 12% 28%  
93 5% 16%  
94 5% 11%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4% Last Result
97 0.5% 1.4%  
98 0.6% 0.9%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 1.0% 99.1%  
74 3% 98%  
75 3% 95%  
76 4% 92%  
77 7% 87%  
78 15% 81%  
79 6% 65% Median
80 14% 59%  
81 17% 45%  
82 12% 28%  
83 9% 15%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.5% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.4%  
71 0.8% 98.5%  
72 3% 98% Last Result
73 2% 95%  
74 6% 93%  
75 6% 87%  
76 13% 81%  
77 8% 67%  
78 14% 59% Median
79 16% 46%  
80 7% 29%  
81 11% 23%  
82 6% 11%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.9%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 1.5% 99.3%  
70 0.9% 98%  
71 2% 97% Last Result
72 4% 95%  
73 8% 91%  
74 8% 84%  
75 7% 75%  
76 10% 68% Median
77 18% 58%  
78 9% 39%  
79 8% 30%  
80 8% 23%  
81 7% 14%  
82 2% 7%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.9% 1.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 1.2% 99.4%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 89%  
76 13% 84%  
77 12% 71%  
78 11% 59% Median
79 17% 47%  
80 11% 30%  
81 8% 19%  
82 6% 11%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.5% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 2% 98.8%  
71 2% 97%  
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 92%  
74 7% 86%  
75 16% 79%  
76 11% 63%  
77 17% 51% Median
78 10% 34%  
79 9% 24%  
80 9% 14%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.4%  
68 2% 98.9% Last Result
69 1.2% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 7% 94%  
72 8% 87%  
73 8% 80%  
74 10% 71%  
75 16% 61% Median
76 12% 46%  
77 10% 34%  
78 6% 24%  
79 9% 17%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 4% 94%  
70 6% 90%  
71 9% 84%  
72 13% 75%  
73 11% 62%  
74 12% 51% Median
75 14% 38%  
76 8% 24%  
77 2% 16%  
78 6% 14%  
79 4% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 0.7% 98.9%  
60 3% 98%  
61 3% 95%  
62 5% 92%  
63 6% 87%  
64 16% 81%  
65 11% 65%  
66 13% 54% Median
67 14% 41%  
68 8% 27%  
69 7% 18%  
70 4% 12%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.3%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 6% 90%  
63 12% 84%  
64 5% 72% Median
65 14% 67%  
66 17% 53%  
67 10% 36%  
68 12% 26%  
69 5% 14%  
70 5% 9%  
71 1.4% 4%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.7%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 4% 93%  
61 9% 89%  
62 11% 80%  
63 12% 69% Median
64 12% 57%  
65 18% 45%  
66 10% 26%  
67 6% 16%  
68 4% 10%  
69 4% 6%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.6%  
55 1.3% 98.9%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 7% 91%  
60 15% 84%  
61 4% 70%  
62 20% 65% Median
63 14% 46%  
64 15% 31%  
65 6% 17%  
66 4% 10%  
67 3% 7%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 1.0% 99.2%  
56 1.2% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 4% 91%  
60 14% 87%  
61 14% 73% Last Result
62 13% 60%  
63 19% 47% Median
64 7% 28%  
65 14% 21%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.2%  
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
48 0.2% 99.0%  
49 0.3% 98.7%  
50 4% 98%  
51 2% 95%  
52 5% 92%  
53 5% 87%  
54 7% 82%  
55 12% 76%  
56 15% 64% Median
57 14% 49%  
58 9% 36%  
59 8% 27%  
60 8% 19%  
61 4% 12%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 0.5% 99.3%  
17 2% 98.8%  
18 4% 97%  
19 2% 93%  
20 5% 91%  
21 6% 86%  
22 7% 80%  
23 17% 73% Median
24 11% 57%  
25 23% 46%  
26 10% 23%  
27 5% 13%  
28 4% 8%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.9% 1.3%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations