Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 22–28 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.4% 24.9–28.0% 24.4–28.5% 24.1–28.9% 23.4–29.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 21.7% 20.3–23.2% 19.9–23.7% 19.6–24.1% 18.9–24.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.0–12.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.5% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–11.0% 8.0–11.2% 7.6–11.8%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 8.4% 7.5–9.4% 7.2–9.7% 7.0–10.0% 6.6–10.5%
Rødt 4.7% 7.8% 7.0–8.9% 6.7–9.2% 6.5–9.4% 6.1–9.9%
Venstre 4.6% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.2% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.7–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.6% 3.0–4.4% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 47 44–51 43–51 42–52 41–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 41 37–44 37–45 36–46 35–47
Fremskrittspartiet 21 18 16–19 15–20 14–21 13–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 16 14–19 13–19 13–20 11–21
Senterpartiet 28 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–19
Rødt 8 14 12–15 11–16 10–16 9–18
Venstre 8 9 7–10 7–11 3–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.4% 100%  
41 1.4% 99.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 14% 92%  
45 11% 78%  
46 16% 67%  
47 10% 51% Median
48 17% 41%  
49 8% 24%  
50 7% 17%  
51 6% 10%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 8% 96%  
38 9% 88%  
39 12% 79%  
40 17% 68%  
41 10% 51% Median
42 9% 41%  
43 11% 32%  
44 11% 21%  
45 6% 10%  
46 3% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 0.8% 99.6%  
14 2% 98.7%  
15 6% 97%  
16 12% 91%  
17 27% 78%  
18 29% 51% Median
19 13% 22%  
20 6% 9%  
21 2% 3% Last Result
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 0.8% 99.2%  
13 6% 98% Last Result
14 8% 93%  
15 18% 85%  
16 18% 67% Median
17 19% 49%  
18 12% 30%  
19 14% 18%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 0.7% 99.8%  
12 7% 99.1%  
13 13% 92%  
14 8% 80%  
15 39% 71% Median
16 14% 32%  
17 14% 18%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.5% 100%  
10 2% 99.4%  
11 5% 97%  
12 12% 92%  
13 28% 80%  
14 28% 52% Median
15 17% 24%  
16 5% 6%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 3% 99.3%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 1.1% 96%  
7 9% 95%  
8 23% 86% Last Result
9 33% 63% Median
10 22% 31%  
11 7% 9%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 24% 100%  
3 34% 76% Last Result, Median
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 4% 42%  
7 20% 38%  
8 13% 18%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100%  
2 53% 89% Median
3 16% 36% Last Result
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 4% 21%  
7 10% 17%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 93 99.2% 88–97 87–99 86–100 84–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 89 88% 84–94 83–94 83–95 80–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 86 67% 81–90 80–92 79–92 77–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 81 14% 76–86 75–87 74–88 73–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 80 8% 75–84 74–85 73–87 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 78 1.2% 73–82 72–84 71–84 69–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 76 0.2% 71–79 70–80 69–82 68–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.1% 69–79 68–79 68–80 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–80 65–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 72 0% 68–76 68–77 67–77 65–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 64 0% 59–68 58–70 56–71 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 58–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 61 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 53–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 61 0% 56–64 55–66 54–66 52–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 58 0% 53–61 53–62 52–62 50–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 56 0% 53–59 52–60 51–61 50–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 28 0% 25–33 23–34 23–34 21–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.7%  
85 1.3% 99.2% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 3% 96%  
88 6% 93%  
89 9% 87%  
90 6% 79%  
91 10% 73%  
92 9% 64% Median
93 15% 55%  
94 7% 40%  
95 14% 33%  
96 6% 18% Last Result
97 3% 12%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 6%  
100 3% 4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.2% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.4%  
82 1.2% 98.8%  
83 3% 98%  
84 7% 94%  
85 3% 88% Majority
86 8% 84%  
87 6% 76%  
88 14% 70% Median
89 12% 56%  
90 16% 44%  
91 6% 28%  
92 5% 22%  
93 6% 17%  
94 7% 11%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.6% 0.9%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.5%  
78 1.1% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 5% 93%  
82 9% 88%  
83 3% 79%  
84 9% 76%  
85 9% 67% Majority
86 9% 58% Median
87 19% 48%  
88 11% 30%  
89 5% 19%  
90 4% 13%  
91 3% 9%  
92 6% 7%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.3% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 2% 99.1%  
75 3% 97%  
76 7% 94%  
77 4% 86%  
78 7% 82%  
79 7% 75% Median
80 13% 68%  
81 17% 55%  
82 8% 38%  
83 9% 30%  
84 7% 21%  
85 2% 14% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.1%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.8% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.0%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 6% 95%  
76 3% 89%  
77 5% 85% Median
78 11% 81%  
79 15% 70%  
80 14% 55%  
81 8% 41%  
82 10% 33%  
83 5% 23%  
84 10% 19%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 1.4% 98.9%  
72 3% 97%  
73 5% 94%  
74 9% 89%  
75 7% 80%  
76 7% 73%  
77 9% 66% Median
78 15% 56%  
79 12% 41%  
80 12% 29%  
81 5% 17%  
82 5% 13%  
83 1.4% 7%  
84 5% 6%  
85 0.9% 1.2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.3%  
70 3% 97%  
71 6% 95%  
72 5% 89%  
73 13% 83%  
74 6% 70% Median
75 13% 64%  
76 17% 51%  
77 11% 34%  
78 7% 24%  
79 8% 16%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 6% 98%  
69 4% 92%  
70 4% 88%  
71 5% 83%  
72 7% 78% Last Result
73 17% 71% Median
74 9% 54%  
75 14% 45%  
76 7% 31%  
77 8% 24%  
78 5% 15%  
79 6% 11%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 6% 93%  
70 8% 87%  
71 17% 79%  
72 6% 62%  
73 12% 56%  
74 6% 44% Median
75 14% 38%  
76 9% 24%  
77 7% 15%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.4%  
67 3% 98.6%  
68 7% 95%  
69 8% 88%  
70 8% 80%  
71 12% 72%  
72 12% 60% Median
73 12% 48%  
74 14% 37%  
75 9% 23%  
76 6% 14%  
77 6% 9%  
78 1.5% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 2% 97%  
58 5% 96%  
59 7% 90%  
60 4% 83%  
61 9% 80% Median
62 9% 71%  
63 8% 62%  
64 15% 53%  
65 8% 39%  
66 8% 30%  
67 9% 23%  
68 5% 14%  
69 2% 9%  
70 3% 7%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.9% 99.7%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 4% 97%  
61 12% 93%  
62 13% 81%  
63 11% 68%  
64 12% 57%  
65 10% 45% Median
66 9% 36%  
67 9% 26%  
68 12% 17%  
69 2% 5%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.5% 1.3%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.7%  
54 1.4% 98.6%  
55 2% 97%  
56 6% 95%  
57 12% 89%  
58 7% 77%  
59 8% 70% Median
60 11% 61%  
61 11% 51%  
62 13% 40%  
63 7% 27%  
64 10% 21%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 0.9% 99.0%  
54 2% 98%  
55 5% 97%  
56 9% 92%  
57 7% 82%  
58 9% 76%  
59 6% 66% Median
60 9% 60%  
61 13% 51%  
62 14% 39%  
63 8% 25%  
64 8% 17%  
65 4% 9%  
66 5% 5%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.5%  
52 2% 98%  
53 8% 95%  
54 9% 87%  
55 7% 78%  
56 9% 72%  
57 12% 63% Median
58 13% 51%  
59 16% 38%  
60 5% 22%  
61 9% 17% Last Result
62 6% 8%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.7%  
51 3% 98.6%  
52 4% 96%  
53 10% 92%  
54 12% 82%  
55 20% 70%  
56 10% 50% Median
57 10% 40%  
58 13% 30%  
59 10% 17%  
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.8%  
21 0.3% 99.7%  
22 0.8% 99.4%  
23 4% 98.6%  
24 3% 95%  
25 10% 91%  
26 9% 81%  
27 17% 72% Median
28 11% 55%  
29 10% 44%  
30 10% 35%  
31 7% 25%  
32 7% 18%  
33 2% 11%  
34 7% 9%  
35 0.7% 1.2%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations