Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 22–28 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 24.9% 22.9–27.0% 22.3–27.6% 21.9–28.1% 21.0–29.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 22.6% 20.7–24.6% 20.1–25.2% 19.7–25.7% 18.8–26.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.9% 9.5–12.5% 9.1–12.9% 8.8–13.3% 8.2–14.1%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.1% 7.9–10.6% 7.5–11.0% 7.2–11.4% 6.7–12.2%
Rødt 4.7% 8.8% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.7% 7.0–11.1% 6.4–11.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 7.9% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.7% 6.1–10.1% 5.6–10.8%
Venstre 4.6% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.6–6.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 44 41–47 40–48 40–50 37–52
Arbeiderpartiet 48 44 39–47 38–48 37–49 35–50
Fremskrittspartiet 21 18 17–21 17–22 16–23 13–25
Senterpartiet 28 16 14–18 13–19 12–20 12–22
Rødt 8 15 12–17 11–18 11–19 10–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 13 10–16 10–17 9–18 8–19
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 7 3–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100% Last Result
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 1.2% 98.8%  
40 6% 98%  
41 13% 92%  
42 9% 79%  
43 12% 70%  
44 13% 58% Median
45 19% 45%  
46 11% 26%  
47 6% 15%  
48 5% 9%  
49 1.5% 4%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 1.1%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 2% 98.5%  
38 5% 96%  
39 6% 92%  
40 5% 85%  
41 11% 80%  
42 7% 69%  
43 8% 62%  
44 17% 54% Median
45 16% 37%  
46 9% 21%  
47 6% 12%  
48 3% 6% Last Result
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 0.4% 99.4%  
15 1.4% 99.0%  
16 2% 98%  
17 17% 95%  
18 30% 79% Median
19 16% 48%  
20 16% 32%  
21 8% 16% Last Result
22 4% 8%  
23 2% 4%  
24 0.8% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 4% 97%  
14 9% 93%  
15 24% 84%  
16 24% 60% Median
17 13% 36%  
18 18% 24%  
19 2% 6%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.9% 1.5%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.7%  
11 5% 98%  
12 8% 93%  
13 13% 85%  
14 21% 73%  
15 15% 51% Median
16 13% 36%  
17 14% 23%  
18 4% 9%  
19 3% 4%  
20 1.1% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.2%  
10 7% 96%  
11 13% 89%  
12 16% 76%  
13 15% 60% Last Result, Median
14 18% 46%  
15 15% 27%  
16 6% 12%  
17 3% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 19% 85%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0.3% 67%  
6 5% 66%  
7 22% 61% Median
8 24% 39% Last Result
9 11% 14%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 1.0%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 9% 99.9%  
3 28% 91% Last Result
4 0% 63%  
5 0.1% 63%  
6 5% 63%  
7 30% 58% Median
8 17% 28%  
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100%  
2 54% 86% Median
3 11% 32% Last Result
4 0% 21%  
5 0.7% 21%  
6 3% 21%  
7 11% 17%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.6% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 90 95% 86–96 85–98 83–99 80–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 90 92% 85–95 83–96 82–98 80–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 97 87 76% 82–92 80–93 79–95 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 81 17% 76–86 75–87 73–89 71–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 78 5% 73–82 72–84 71–85 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 76 0.7% 71–79 70–82 68–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 74 0.7% 70–80 69–81 67–83 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 74 0.7% 69–79 67–81 66–82 63–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 73 0.1% 68–75 67–77 66–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 69 0% 64–73 63–75 62–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 68 0% 63–73 60–75 60–76 57–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 65 0% 60–70 58–71 57–72 55–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 60 0% 55–63 53–64 52–65 51–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 52–60 50–62 49–64 46–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 57 0% 52–60 51–61 49–62 48–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 28 0% 22–32 21–34 21–35 19–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 99.6%  
81 0.5% 99.4%  
82 0.6% 98.9%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 7% 93%  
87 8% 85%  
88 8% 77%  
89 7% 69%  
90 16% 62%  
91 9% 46%  
92 5% 37% Median
93 5% 32%  
94 6% 28%  
95 11% 22%  
96 4% 11% Last Result
97 2% 7%  
98 2% 5%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.8% 1.3%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.6%  
81 1.2% 99.2%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 94%  
85 4% 92% Majority
86 7% 88%  
87 6% 81%  
88 7% 75%  
89 14% 68%  
90 8% 54% Median
91 5% 46%  
92 11% 41%  
93 5% 30%  
94 13% 25%  
95 3% 11%  
96 4% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.4% 3%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 98.9%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 94%  
82 3% 90%  
83 4% 87%  
84 7% 83%  
85 7% 76% Majority
86 6% 69%  
87 23% 62%  
88 5% 40% Median
89 6% 35%  
90 9% 29%  
91 4% 19%  
92 9% 15%  
93 2% 7%  
94 0.8% 5%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.3%  
73 1.3% 98.7%  
74 1.4% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 5% 94%  
77 6% 89%  
78 11% 83%  
79 9% 73%  
80 8% 64%  
81 7% 55%  
82 5% 48% Median
83 8% 44%  
84 19% 36%  
85 4% 17% Majority
86 5% 12%  
87 2% 7%  
88 1.5% 5%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.6% 99.3%  
70 0.7% 98.7%  
71 1.0% 98% Last Result
72 5% 97%  
73 7% 92%  
74 5% 85%  
75 9% 79%  
76 13% 71%  
77 6% 57%  
78 8% 51% Median
79 11% 43%  
80 6% 32%  
81 11% 26%  
82 5% 15%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 6% 92%  
72 6% 87%  
73 6% 80%  
74 11% 74%  
75 13% 63% Median
76 9% 50%  
77 20% 41%  
78 8% 22%  
79 4% 14%  
80 2% 10%  
81 2% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 99.3%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 1.4% 97% Last Result
69 1.4% 96%  
70 5% 95%  
71 9% 90%  
72 10% 81%  
73 7% 71%  
74 17% 64%  
75 9% 47%  
76 8% 38% Median
77 10% 30%  
78 4% 19%  
79 5% 15%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.0% 4%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.7% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.1%  
65 0.8% 98.7%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 94%  
69 4% 92%  
70 4% 88%  
71 7% 83%  
72 9% 76% Last Result
73 7% 67%  
74 21% 60% Median
75 6% 39%  
76 4% 34%  
77 6% 30%  
78 12% 23%  
79 3% 11%  
80 3% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.7% Majority
86 0% 0.4%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.4%  
65 1.1% 98.9%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 6% 94%  
69 6% 88%  
70 7% 82%  
71 13% 76%  
72 10% 63%  
73 16% 52% Median
74 11% 37%  
75 16% 26%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.7%  
61 1.0% 98.9%  
62 0.7% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 5% 95%  
65 4% 90% Last Result
66 9% 85%  
67 12% 76%  
68 12% 64%  
69 13% 52% Median
70 10% 39%  
71 10% 29%  
72 4% 19%  
73 6% 15%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.2%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 3% 98%  
61 2% 95%  
62 3% 93%  
63 2% 90%  
64 5% 88%  
65 10% 83%  
66 9% 73%  
67 6% 63%  
68 10% 58%  
69 14% 48% Median
70 5% 35%  
71 4% 29%  
72 13% 25%  
73 3% 12%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.2% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.8% 1.3%  
79 0.4% 0.5%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1% Last Result
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 1.1% 99.1%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 3% 94%  
60 3% 91%  
61 4% 89%  
62 6% 84%  
63 15% 79%  
64 6% 64%  
65 11% 58%  
66 10% 46%  
67 12% 37% Median
68 6% 24%  
69 3% 18%  
70 9% 15%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.5% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.9% 99.2%  
57 1.3% 98% Last Result
58 3% 97%  
59 12% 94%  
60 7% 82%  
61 11% 75%  
62 7% 65% Median
63 15% 57%  
64 16% 42%  
65 10% 27%  
66 6% 17%  
67 4% 11%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.3% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 5% 93%  
56 6% 87%  
57 7% 82%  
58 10% 74%  
59 12% 64%  
60 23% 51% Median
61 6% 28%  
62 5% 23%  
63 12% 18%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
48 0.8% 98.8%  
49 1.3% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 3% 94%  
52 12% 92%  
53 5% 80%  
54 14% 75%  
55 7% 61%  
56 13% 54%  
57 5% 40%  
58 11% 35% Median
59 10% 24%  
60 6% 14%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.1% 4%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 1.1% 99.6%  
49 1.0% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 3% 96%  
52 3% 93%  
53 6% 90%  
54 10% 83%  
55 12% 74%  
56 9% 62%  
57 16% 53% Median
58 13% 37%  
59 12% 23%  
60 4% 11%  
61 3% 7% Last Result
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.9% 1.5%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.4% 99.7%  
20 1.1% 99.3%  
21 7% 98%  
22 2% 92%  
23 4% 90%  
24 3% 86%  
25 10% 83%  
26 9% 73%  
27 10% 63%  
28 8% 53%  
29 4% 45%  
30 8% 41% Median
31 13% 32%  
32 12% 19%  
33 2% 7%  
34 2% 6%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.1% Last Result
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations