Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 1–2 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.8% 23.9–27.9% 23.4–28.4% 22.9–28.9% 22.0–29.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 21.8% 20.0–23.8% 19.5–24.3% 19.1–24.8% 18.3–25.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 11.0% 9.7–12.6% 9.4–13.0% 9.1–13.4% 8.5–14.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.7% 8.5–11.1% 8.1–11.6% 7.8–11.9% 7.3–12.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.7% 7.5–10.1% 7.2–10.5% 6.9–10.8% 6.4–11.6%
Rødt 4.7% 7.3% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0% 5.7–9.3% 5.2–10.0%
Venstre 4.6% 5.1% 4.2–6.2% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–6.8% 3.4–7.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.3% 3.6–5.4% 3.3–5.7% 3.1–6.0% 2.8–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.1% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.5% 1.8–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 45 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 42 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–48
Fremskrittspartiet 21 19 17–21 17–22 16–23 15–25
Senterpartiet 28 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 13–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 12–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Rødt 8 12 11–15 10–15 9–16 9–17
Venstre 8 9 7–10 6–11 3–11 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 2–9 2–9 2–9 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 2–3 1–7 0–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 3% 97%  
42 5% 94%  
43 8% 89%  
44 16% 80%  
45 27% 65% Median
46 11% 38%  
47 13% 27%  
48 6% 14%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 9% 91%  
39 10% 81%  
40 13% 71%  
41 6% 58%  
42 10% 52% Median
43 9% 42%  
44 20% 33%  
45 5% 13%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.3% 99.6%  
16 2% 98%  
17 10% 96%  
18 27% 86%  
19 20% 59% Median
20 16% 39%  
21 17% 23% Last Result
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.5%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 2% 99.0%  
15 24% 97%  
16 17% 73%  
17 20% 56% Median
18 25% 37%  
19 6% 11%  
20 3% 5%  
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.8%  
11 3% 99.2%  
12 10% 97%  
13 8% 86% Last Result
14 27% 79%  
15 19% 51% Median
16 14% 33%  
17 12% 19%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100% Last Result
9 3% 99.7%  
10 6% 97%  
11 14% 91%  
12 29% 77% Median
13 28% 48%  
14 9% 19%  
15 6% 10%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 3% 98%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.6% 95%  
7 11% 95%  
8 24% 83% Last Result
9 25% 59% Median
10 25% 34%  
11 6% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 12% 99.4%  
3 8% 88% Last Result
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 1.5% 80%  
7 30% 78% Median
8 37% 48%  
9 9% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 3% 96%  
2 71% 93% Median
3 15% 22% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 2% 7%  
7 4% 6%  
8 1.0% 1.2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 92 99.5% 88–96 88–97 87–99 84–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 93 98% 88–96 86–97 85–98 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 85 68% 82–90 80–91 79–92 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 82 15% 78–86 76–87 75–89 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 82 21% 78–86 77–87 76–88 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 80 4% 76–83 74–84 72–86 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 75 0.3% 72–79 71–81 70–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 76 0.2% 71–79 69–80 69–81 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 73 0% 69–76 69–78 67–79 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 73 0.1% 69–76 68–78 67–79 65–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 67 0% 63–72 61–72 59–73 56–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 64 0% 61–67 60–69 59–70 58–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 61 0% 57–64 56–66 55–67 53–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 59 0% 55–62 54–63 52–64 51–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 56 0% 53–59 52–61 51–62 49–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 48–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 28 0% 26–30 25–31 23–33 21–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 1.3% 99.2%  
87 3% 98%  
88 5% 95%  
89 5% 90%  
90 19% 85%  
91 11% 66%  
92 12% 55% Median
93 7% 43%  
94 14% 36%  
95 12% 22%  
96 2% 10% Last Result
97 4% 8%  
98 1.3% 5%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.5% 1.1%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.5%  
84 0.8% 98.9%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 2% 95%  
88 5% 93%  
89 5% 88%  
90 14% 82%  
91 6% 69%  
92 10% 62%  
93 22% 52% Median
94 8% 31%  
95 9% 23%  
96 4% 13%  
97 5% 9%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 95%  
82 7% 91%  
83 11% 83%  
84 5% 73%  
85 19% 68% Majority
86 15% 49% Median
87 12% 34%  
88 8% 23%  
89 4% 14%  
90 2% 10%  
91 4% 8%  
92 1.3% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.4% 1.1%  
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.1% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 98%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 1.3% 94%  
78 4% 93%  
79 7% 89%  
80 6% 82%  
81 8% 76%  
82 22% 68%  
83 19% 46% Median
84 12% 27%  
85 4% 15% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 3% 8%  
88 1.2% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.6% 99.3%  
75 0.8% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 6% 94%  
79 5% 88%  
80 10% 83%  
81 9% 72%  
82 19% 63% Median
83 19% 44%  
84 4% 25%  
85 9% 21% Majority
86 6% 11%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.1%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 1.2% 99.4%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 4% 91%  
77 10% 87%  
78 4% 76%  
79 8% 72%  
80 23% 64%  
81 18% 41% Median
82 11% 23%  
83 3% 12%  
84 5% 9%  
85 1.2% 4% Majority
86 0.9% 3%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
69 1.1% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 8% 91%  
73 7% 83%  
74 11% 76%  
75 24% 66% Median
76 11% 42%  
77 7% 31%  
78 12% 24%  
79 4% 12%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 0.6% 99.1%  
68 1.0% 98.5%  
69 3% 98%  
70 2% 95%  
71 5% 93%  
72 3% 88% Last Result
73 12% 85%  
74 15% 73%  
75 8% 58%  
76 4% 50% Median
77 18% 46%  
78 16% 28%  
79 5% 12%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.3%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 7% 95%  
70 5% 88%  
71 6% 83%  
72 10% 78%  
73 32% 68%  
74 13% 35% Median
75 10% 23%  
76 3% 13%  
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
66 0.4% 99.2%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 3% 97%  
69 6% 94%  
70 7% 87%  
71 7% 80%  
72 13% 73%  
73 21% 59% Median
74 10% 39%  
75 9% 28%  
76 10% 19%  
77 4% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.4% 99.4%  
58 0.7% 98.9%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 1.1% 97%  
61 1.0% 96%  
62 3% 95%  
63 4% 92%  
64 9% 88%  
65 6% 80%  
66 8% 73%  
67 17% 65%  
68 10% 48% Median
69 15% 39%  
70 5% 24%  
71 7% 19%  
72 8% 12%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.7%  
60 4% 96%  
61 3% 92%  
62 14% 88%  
63 24% 75%  
64 6% 50% Median
65 8% 45%  
66 11% 36%  
67 17% 26%  
68 2% 9%  
69 3% 7%  
70 1.4% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.1%  
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 1.2% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 8% 92%  
58 5% 84%  
59 13% 79%  
60 10% 66%  
61 23% 56% Median
62 9% 33%  
63 6% 24%  
64 8% 17%  
65 3% 9%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.4%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 99.5%  
52 2% 98.7%  
53 1.4% 97%  
54 4% 95%  
55 9% 92%  
56 6% 82%  
57 14% 76%  
58 12% 62%  
59 24% 50% Median
60 8% 27%  
61 4% 19%  
62 7% 15%  
63 5% 7%  
64 1.4% 3%  
65 0.6% 1.3%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 1.4% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 6% 92%  
54 7% 86%  
55 12% 79%  
56 21% 67% Median
57 23% 46%  
58 8% 23%  
59 5% 15%  
60 4% 10%  
61 3% 6%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.4%  
50 3% 98.8%  
51 1.5% 96%  
52 5% 94%  
53 6% 89%  
54 10% 83%  
55 11% 73%  
56 14% 61%  
57 11% 48% Median
58 19% 37%  
59 6% 18%  
60 6% 12%  
61 2% 6% Last Result
62 3% 4%  
63 0.6% 1.5%  
64 0.5% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.8%  
21 0.3% 99.6%  
22 1.1% 99.3%  
23 1.1% 98%  
24 2% 97%  
25 5% 96%  
26 9% 91%  
27 24% 82%  
28 30% 58% Median
29 12% 28%  
30 7% 16%  
31 4% 9%  
32 2% 5%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 2%  
35 0.4% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.6%  
37 0.2% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations