Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagbladet, 25–27 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.2% 24.4–28.1% 23.9–28.6% 23.5–29.1% 22.6–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 23.8% 22.1–25.7% 21.6–26.2% 21.2–26.7% 20.4–27.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.8–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.2%
Rødt 4.7% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.1%
Venstre 4.6% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.0% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 46 42–49 42–50 41–51 40–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 45 42–47 41–48 40–49 38–50
Fremskrittspartiet 21 18 17–20 16–21 15–22 14–23
Senterpartiet 28 16 15–18 14–19 13–19 12–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–19
Rødt 8 10 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Venstre 8 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 3–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.2%  
42 8% 96%  
43 7% 88%  
44 12% 81%  
45 12% 69%  
46 24% 57% Median
47 10% 33%  
48 11% 23%  
49 6% 12%  
50 2% 6%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.8% 99.3%  
40 2% 98.6%  
41 3% 97%  
42 7% 94%  
43 7% 87%  
44 15% 80%  
45 26% 65% Median
46 18% 39%  
47 13% 21%  
48 4% 8% Last Result
49 2% 4%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 1.0% 99.8%  
15 2% 98.8%  
16 6% 97%  
17 19% 91%  
18 32% 72% Median
19 19% 39%  
20 12% 20%  
21 5% 8% Last Result
22 3% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 6% 97%  
15 17% 91%  
16 26% 75% Median
17 22% 49%  
18 19% 26%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.6% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 7% 98%  
13 13% 91% Last Result
14 20% 78%  
15 31% 58% Median
16 13% 27%  
17 9% 14%  
18 4% 5%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0.1% 99.7%  
7 2% 99.7%  
8 9% 98% Last Result
9 16% 89%  
10 36% 74% Median
11 19% 37%  
12 13% 18%  
13 3% 5%  
14 0.9% 1.1%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0.9% 99.6%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0.1% 98.8%  
7 4% 98.6%  
8 17% 95% Last Result
9 29% 77% Median
10 28% 49%  
11 14% 20%  
12 5% 7%  
13 1.1% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 27% 96%  
3 14% 69% Last Result
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 1.0% 55%  
7 27% 54% Median
8 21% 27%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 4% 99.5%  
2 52% 96% Median
3 21% 43% Last Result
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 3% 22%  
7 14% 19%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 93 99.8% 88–98 88–99 87–100 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 92 98% 87–96 86–96 85–97 83–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 87 77% 83–90 81–91 80–92 78–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 85 57% 81–88 79–89 78–90 76–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 82 17% 78–85 77–87 76–88 74–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 82 11% 77–85 76–85 75–86 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 76 0.6% 73–81 72–82 72–83 69–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 76 0.3% 73–79 71–80 70–82 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0.1% 71–80 70–80 68–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 73 0% 70–77 69–78 69–79 66–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 71 0% 66–74 64–75 62–76 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–69 57–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 62 0% 59–64 57–65 56–67 54–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 58 0% 54–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 60 0% 57–63 55–64 54–64 53–66
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 29 0% 26–33 25–34 24–35 22–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8% Majority
86 1.0% 99.5%  
87 3% 98%  
88 6% 96%  
89 4% 90%  
90 6% 86%  
91 7% 80% Median
92 16% 73%  
93 12% 57%  
94 12% 45%  
95 10% 33%  
96 7% 23% Last Result
97 4% 16%  
98 6% 12%  
99 3% 6%  
100 1.3% 3%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.6% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.6%  
84 0.9% 99.1%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 6% 93%  
88 6% 87%  
89 8% 80%  
90 10% 73%  
91 8% 63%  
92 7% 54%  
93 12% 47% Median
94 19% 35%  
95 5% 15%  
96 8% 10%  
97 0.6% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 99.1%  
80 1.3% 98%  
81 3% 97%  
82 2% 94%  
83 7% 91%  
84 8% 85%  
85 10% 77% Majority
86 17% 68% Median
87 21% 50%  
88 10% 29%  
89 6% 19%  
90 4% 13%  
91 5% 9%  
92 1.3% 3%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.9% 99.8%  
77 1.3% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 4% 94%  
81 5% 90%  
82 9% 85%  
83 8% 76%  
84 11% 68%  
85 7% 57% Median, Majority
86 24% 50%  
87 13% 25%  
88 6% 13%  
89 4% 7%  
90 1.3% 3%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.1%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.8%  
77 4% 97%  
78 5% 93%  
79 6% 88%  
80 10% 82%  
81 13% 72%  
82 18% 59% Median
83 15% 41%  
84 8% 26%  
85 9% 17% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.7%  
74 1.3% 99.0%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 5% 93%  
78 9% 88%  
79 9% 79%  
80 8% 70%  
81 11% 62%  
82 8% 52%  
83 9% 44% Median
84 23% 35%  
85 7% 11% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 0.7% 1.3%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0% 0.1% Last Result
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.6% 99.3%  
71 1.2% 98.7%  
72 6% 98%  
73 6% 92%  
74 6% 86%  
75 23% 80% Median
76 9% 57%  
77 9% 48%  
78 10% 39%  
79 9% 29%  
80 5% 20%  
81 6% 14%  
82 5% 9%  
83 1.5% 4%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 1.0% 99.5%  
70 1.3% 98.5%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 4% 92%  
74 8% 88%  
75 10% 79%  
76 23% 69% Median
77 25% 46%  
78 7% 21%  
79 7% 14%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.3%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.4%  
68 0.9% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 6% 91%  
72 7% 85% Last Result
73 10% 78%  
74 12% 69%  
75 11% 57%  
76 8% 47%  
77 18% 39% Median
78 8% 21%  
79 3% 14%  
80 6% 11%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.9% 1.5%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.4% 99.3%  
68 1.0% 98.9%  
69 3% 98%  
70 10% 95%  
71 11% 84%  
72 9% 73%  
73 21% 64% Median
74 10% 43%  
75 11% 33%  
76 6% 22%  
77 7% 16%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.9% 1.3%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.7%  
62 2% 98.8%  
63 1.4% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 3% 94%  
66 7% 91%  
67 5% 84%  
68 11% 79%  
69 5% 68%  
70 8% 63% Median
71 26% 55%  
72 13% 29%  
73 5% 16%  
74 6% 12%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1% Last Result
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 4% 93%  
62 4% 89%  
63 15% 85% Median
64 24% 70%  
65 11% 46%  
66 9% 35%  
67 8% 25%  
68 7% 17%  
69 6% 10%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.5% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.6%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
58 0.5% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 5% 97%  
61 8% 92%  
62 15% 84%  
63 13% 69%  
64 17% 56% Median
65 14% 39%  
66 8% 25%  
67 7% 17%  
68 4% 11%  
69 4% 7%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 3% 96%  
58 4% 94%  
59 6% 90%  
60 11% 84%  
61 20% 73% Median
62 28% 53%  
63 13% 25%  
64 5% 12%  
65 3% 7%  
66 0.8% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.4%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 99.1%  
53 3% 98%  
54 7% 96%  
55 8% 89%  
56 8% 82%  
57 15% 74% Median
58 12% 59%  
59 14% 47%  
60 9% 33%  
61 6% 24%  
62 7% 18%  
63 3% 11%  
64 3% 7%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.6% 1.5%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.5%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 7% 90%  
58 15% 84%  
59 11% 69%  
60 24% 58% Median
61 13% 34% Last Result
62 8% 21%  
63 6% 13%  
64 4% 6%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.2% 99.7%  
23 0.5% 99.5%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 3% 97%  
26 7% 94%  
27 12% 86% Median
28 19% 75%  
29 14% 55%  
30 12% 41%  
31 9% 30%  
32 8% 20%  
33 6% 12%  
34 2% 7%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1% Last Result
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations