Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Dagsavisen, Fagbladet and FriFagbevegelse, 3–9 October 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.3–22.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Venstre 4.6% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Rødt 4.7% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 46 41–49 40–49 40–50 40–51
Arbeiderpartiet 48 37 34–41 34–42 33–42 32–44
Fremskrittspartiet 21 24 21–27 20–28 20–29 18–30
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 15 13–19 12–19 12–19 11–21
Senterpartiet 28 14 12–16 12–16 10–17 8–17
Venstre 8 7 6–10 5–10 3–11 3–12
Rødt 8 7 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 3 2–7 2–7 1–7 1–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–6 2–7 2–7 2–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 7% 99.8%  
41 9% 92%  
42 5% 84%  
43 11% 78%  
44 6% 68%  
45 11% 61%  
46 16% 51% Median
47 16% 35%  
48 9% 20%  
49 6% 10%  
50 2% 4%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.6%  
33 3% 98%  
34 7% 95%  
35 9% 89%  
36 10% 79%  
37 28% 69% Median
38 16% 41%  
39 6% 25%  
40 8% 19%  
41 4% 11%  
42 4% 7%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 1.5% 99.4%  
20 8% 98%  
21 10% 90% Last Result
22 16% 80%  
23 10% 64%  
24 24% 54% Median
25 8% 30%  
26 5% 22%  
27 10% 16%  
28 3% 6%  
29 1.1% 3%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.5%  
12 4% 98%  
13 10% 95% Last Result
14 22% 85%  
15 15% 62% Median
16 11% 47%  
17 7% 36%  
18 18% 29%  
19 9% 11%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 0.8% 99.4%  
10 1.1% 98.5%  
11 1.2% 97%  
12 7% 96%  
13 23% 89%  
14 43% 66% Median
15 12% 24%  
16 7% 11%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 0% 97%  
5 3% 97%  
6 12% 95%  
7 32% 82% Median
8 19% 50% Last Result
9 18% 31%  
10 9% 13%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100%  
2 0.2% 85%  
3 0% 85%  
4 0% 85%  
5 7% 85%  
6 27% 78%  
7 27% 51% Median
8 18% 24% Last Result
9 5% 7%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 22% 96%  
3 30% 74% Last Result, Median
4 0% 44%  
5 5% 44%  
6 24% 39%  
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 38% 99.8%  
3 33% 62% Last Result, Median
4 0% 29%  
5 5% 29%  
6 18% 24%  
7 5% 6%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 99.6% 89–99 87–100 87–101 85–102
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 84 43% 80–88 78–90 77–91 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 79 14% 75–85 74–86 73–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 77 2% 71–82 70–83 69–84 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 76 0.4% 71–81 70–82 70–83 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 75 0.3% 69–79 69–80 67–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 74 0% 68–77 67–78 66–80 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 71 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 63–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 68 0% 64–74 63–74 62–75 61–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 63 0% 57–68 57–69 56–71 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 59 0% 54–64 53–65 52–66 50–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 57 0% 51–61 50–62 50–63 49–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 55 0% 51–59 50–60 49–61 47–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 53 0% 49–57 48–59 47–60 46–61
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 51 0% 48–55 47–56 46–56 45–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 25 0% 22–28 21–29 20–30 18–31

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 1.1% 99.6% Majority
86 0.8% 98%  
87 3% 98%  
88 3% 94%  
89 4% 91%  
90 10% 87%  
91 9% 76%  
92 9% 68%  
93 8% 59%  
94 8% 51% Median
95 9% 43%  
96 6% 34% Last Result
97 5% 28%  
98 9% 23%  
99 7% 14%  
100 4% 7%  
101 1.4% 3%  
102 1.1% 1.3%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.8% 99.9%  
75 1.2% 99.1%  
76 0.3% 98%  
77 2% 98%  
78 1.0% 96%  
79 3% 95%  
80 5% 92%  
81 11% 87%  
82 14% 76%  
83 9% 62% Median
84 9% 53%  
85 8% 43% Majority
86 6% 35%  
87 11% 29%  
88 10% 18%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 0.9%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 1.4% 99.3%  
73 3% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 12% 89%  
77 10% 77%  
78 9% 67%  
79 9% 58%  
80 5% 49% Median
81 6% 43%  
82 7% 38%  
83 6% 31%  
84 11% 24%  
85 6% 14% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 3% 99.2%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 94%  
72 7% 89%  
73 5% 82%  
74 12% 78%  
75 3% 66%  
76 7% 63% Median
77 7% 56%  
78 8% 49%  
79 6% 41%  
80 9% 35%  
81 11% 26%  
82 5% 14%  
83 5% 10%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.2% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 95%  
72 4% 89%  
73 8% 86%  
74 11% 78%  
75 13% 67%  
76 8% 54%  
77 6% 45% Median
78 7% 39%  
79 8% 32%  
80 5% 24%  
81 10% 19%  
82 5% 9%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.5% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.2%  
68 1.3% 97%  
69 6% 96%  
70 4% 90%  
71 13% 86%  
72 5% 73% Median
73 7% 67%  
74 10% 60%  
75 10% 50%  
76 7% 40%  
77 9% 33%  
78 8% 24%  
79 7% 16%  
80 5% 9%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.3% 1.3%  
84 0.8% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 0.8% 99.4%  
66 3% 98.6%  
67 3% 96%  
68 5% 93%  
69 6% 88%  
70 8% 82%  
71 12% 74%  
72 5% 62%  
73 6% 56% Median
74 13% 51%  
75 14% 38%  
76 10% 24%  
77 7% 13%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.5% 0.5%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 3% 99.0%  
65 3% 97%  
66 4% 93%  
67 7% 89%  
68 14% 82%  
69 6% 68% Median
70 7% 62%  
71 10% 55%  
72 6% 45%  
73 10% 39%  
74 7% 29%  
75 10% 22%  
76 6% 12%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.5% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.6%  
62 2% 98%  
63 1.3% 95%  
64 6% 94%  
65 4% 89%  
66 10% 85%  
67 11% 75%  
68 15% 64%  
69 11% 48%  
70 9% 37% Median
71 5% 28%  
72 7% 23%  
73 5% 16%  
74 7% 11%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 1.0% 99.4%  
61 1.4% 98%  
62 4% 97%  
63 6% 93%  
64 10% 88%  
65 13% 78%  
66 10% 64% Median
67 11% 55%  
68 13% 43%  
69 12% 31%  
70 8% 19%  
71 5% 11%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.7% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.7%  
56 4% 98.9%  
57 5% 95%  
58 6% 90%  
59 8% 84%  
60 7% 76%  
61 4% 68%  
62 9% 64% Median
63 7% 55%  
64 8% 48%  
65 5% 40%  
66 9% 35%  
67 10% 26%  
68 6% 16%  
69 5% 10%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.7% 2% Last Result
73 0.7% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 99.3%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 5% 92%  
55 7% 87%  
56 6% 81%  
57 8% 75% Median
58 12% 67%  
59 12% 55%  
60 10% 43%  
61 11% 33%  
62 6% 22%  
63 5% 16%  
64 3% 11%  
65 5% 8%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100% Last Result
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.6%  
50 5% 98%  
51 4% 93%  
52 8% 90%  
53 5% 82%  
54 7% 77%  
55 10% 70%  
56 10% 60% Median
57 12% 50%  
58 14% 38%  
59 7% 25%  
60 6% 18%  
61 4% 12%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 3%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.4%  
49 2% 98.9%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 10% 85%  
53 10% 75%  
54 14% 64% Median
55 11% 50%  
56 10% 39%  
57 10% 29%  
58 5% 19%  
59 8% 13%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.2%  
48 3% 96%  
49 5% 94%  
50 11% 88%  
51 12% 78%  
52 12% 66% Median
53 11% 54%  
54 10% 43%  
55 10% 32%  
56 10% 22%  
57 4% 12%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.7% 99.5%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 3% 96%  
48 7% 94%  
49 11% 87%  
50 14% 76%  
51 15% 62% Median
52 19% 47%  
53 10% 28%  
54 7% 18%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.1% 99.8%  
18 0.5% 99.7%  
19 1.0% 99.2%  
20 1.1% 98%  
21 4% 97%  
22 5% 93%  
23 19% 88%  
24 14% 69% Median
25 13% 55%  
26 13% 42%  
27 9% 29%  
28 12% 20%  
29 4% 9%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations