Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 3–8 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 20.4% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Venstre 4.6% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Rødt 4.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 36 46 43–48 42–49 41–51 40–53
Arbeiderpartiet 48 36 35–41 34–42 34–42 33–45
Fremskrittspartiet 21 24 22–26 21–27 20–28 19–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 18 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–24
Senterpartiet 28 13 12–15 11–15 10–17 10–17
Venstre 8 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 7–14
Rødt 8 10 8–11 8–12 7–13 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 8 2–9 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 1.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 9% 93%  
44 13% 84%  
45 7% 71%  
46 39% 64% Median
47 11% 25%  
48 5% 14%  
49 4% 9%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.3% 3%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 11% 94%  
36 40% 82% Median
37 9% 42%  
38 11% 33%  
39 4% 21%  
40 3% 17%  
41 8% 14%  
42 4% 6%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.2%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.6% 99.8%  
20 2% 99.2%  
21 6% 97% Last Result
22 13% 91%  
23 10% 78%  
24 42% 68% Median
25 13% 26%  
26 6% 13%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.8%  
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100% Last Result
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 1.5% 99.5%  
16 6% 98%  
17 10% 92%  
18 47% 82% Median
19 15% 35%  
20 10% 20%  
21 5% 9%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.4% 1.2%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 4% 97%  
12 5% 93%  
13 54% 88% Median
14 23% 34%  
15 6% 11%  
16 2% 5%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 1.1% 99.9%  
8 5% 98.8% Last Result
9 12% 94%  
10 45% 82% Median
11 14% 37%  
12 14% 23%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.9% 1.0%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 3% 99.2%  
8 12% 96% Last Result
9 19% 83%  
10 45% 64% Median
11 13% 19%  
12 3% 6%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 19% 100%  
3 12% 81% Last Result
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0.1% 70%  
7 17% 70%  
8 14% 52% Median
9 38% 38%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100%  
2 59% 85% Median
3 5% 26% Last Result
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0.1% 21%  
7 14% 21%  
8 5% 7%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 4%  
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 102 100% 94–103 91–103 91–105 90–106
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 91 95% 85–92 85–94 83–94 81–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 88 73% 80–89 78–90 78–91 77–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 79 19% 79–88 78–90 77–90 75–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 65 80 8% 76–84 76–85 74–86 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 77 3% 76–83 74–83 74–85 72–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 78 3% 75–82 74–83 72–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 70 0% 69–78 68–79 67–79 66–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 66 0% 65–74 65–77 63–77 62–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 57 70 0% 65–73 65–74 64–76 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 68 0% 67–72 65–74 64–75 63–78
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 64 0% 58–65 56–67 56–67 54–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 60 0% 56–64 55–65 53–66 51–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 58 0% 53–60 52–62 51–62 49–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 54 0% 53–59 52–60 51–61 50–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 49 0% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 31 0% 26–34 25–34 24–35 23–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.7%  
91 6% 99.3%  
92 0.9% 93%  
93 1.5% 92%  
94 3% 91%  
95 3% 88%  
96 4% 85% Last Result
97 5% 82%  
98 5% 76%  
99 8% 71%  
100 3% 62%  
101 8% 59% Median
102 35% 51%  
103 11% 16%  
104 1.2% 4%  
105 3% 3%  
106 0.3% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.4% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 2% 99.2%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 1.3% 97%  
85 8% 95% Majority
86 8% 87%  
87 6% 79%  
88 4% 73%  
89 7% 69%  
90 6% 62% Median
91 42% 56%  
92 5% 14%  
93 4% 9%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 6% 99.4%  
79 0.9% 93%  
80 3% 92%  
81 2% 89%  
82 1.3% 87%  
83 4% 86%  
84 8% 81%  
85 6% 73% Majority
86 5% 67%  
87 7% 61%  
88 6% 54% Median
89 39% 48%  
90 5% 9%  
91 3% 4%  
92 1.0% 1.4%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.9% 99.5%  
77 3% 98.5%  
78 5% 96%  
79 41% 91% Median
80 4% 50%  
81 7% 46%  
82 5% 39%  
83 6% 33%  
84 8% 27%  
85 4% 19% Majority
86 1.2% 14%  
87 2% 13%  
88 3% 11%  
89 0.9% 8%  
90 6% 7%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.6%  
73 1.1% 99.0%  
74 1.4% 98%  
75 1.5% 97%  
76 9% 95%  
77 8% 86%  
78 5% 78%  
79 3% 74%  
80 39% 71% Median
81 6% 32%  
82 12% 26%  
83 3% 14%  
84 3% 11%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 0.8% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.6%  
73 1.2% 99.0%  
74 3% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 5% 91%  
77 44% 86% Median
78 4% 41%  
79 7% 38%  
80 4% 31%  
81 6% 27%  
82 8% 21%  
83 8% 13%  
84 1.3% 5%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.1% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.5%  
72 2% 98.9%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 8% 93%  
76 5% 85%  
77 10% 79% Median
78 36% 69%  
79 4% 33%  
80 5% 29%  
81 11% 24%  
82 5% 13%  
83 3% 8%  
84 1.4% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 1.3% 99.5%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 34% 92% Median
70 11% 59%  
71 3% 47%  
72 4% 44%  
73 11% 40%  
74 8% 29%  
75 3% 22%  
76 6% 19%  
77 2% 13%  
78 3% 11%  
79 7% 9%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.4%  
64 1.2% 97%  
65 12% 96%  
66 37% 84% Median
67 6% 47%  
68 3% 41%  
69 8% 37%  
70 5% 29%  
71 6% 24%  
72 3% 18% Last Result
73 3% 15%  
74 3% 12%  
75 1.5% 9%  
76 1.0% 7%  
77 6% 7%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 98.8%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 8% 97%  
66 5% 88%  
67 4% 84%  
68 9% 79%  
69 9% 71%  
70 36% 62% Median
71 9% 26%  
72 2% 16%  
73 8% 14%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 1.1%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 2% 99.1%  
65 2% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 36% 91% Median
68 15% 55%  
69 4% 40%  
70 7% 36%  
71 9% 29%  
72 10% 20%  
73 5% 10%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.4% 1.3%  
77 0.4% 0.9%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 98.6%  
56 6% 98%  
57 2% 92%  
58 4% 90%  
59 6% 86%  
60 7% 80%  
61 6% 74%  
62 5% 68%  
63 9% 63%  
64 13% 54% Median
65 34% 41%  
66 2% 7%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.2%  
53 1.2% 98.7%  
54 2% 97%  
55 4% 96%  
56 3% 92%  
57 7% 89%  
58 12% 82%  
59 6% 70% Median
60 35% 64%  
61 4% 29%  
62 4% 25%  
63 12% 22%  
64 3% 10%  
65 3% 8%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.1%  
51 1.5% 98%  
52 4% 97%  
53 4% 93%  
54 5% 88%  
55 8% 83%  
56 16% 75%  
57 8% 60% Median
58 36% 52%  
59 4% 16%  
60 3% 12%  
61 4% 9%  
62 3% 5%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.5%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.2% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.5%  
52 3% 97%  
53 5% 94%  
54 44% 89% Median
55 8% 45%  
56 8% 38%  
57 5% 30%  
58 5% 25%  
59 11% 20%  
60 5% 9%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.3% 1.2%  
64 0.5% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 3% 98%  
48 4% 95%  
49 46% 91% Median
50 8% 45%  
51 8% 37%  
52 9% 29%  
53 6% 20%  
54 10% 15%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.6% 1.4%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.6%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 2% 97%  
26 11% 95%  
27 6% 84%  
28 7% 78%  
29 7% 72%  
30 7% 65%  
31 8% 58% Median
32 35% 50%  
33 4% 15%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 1.0% 1.2%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations