Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Dagsavisen, Fagbladet and FriFagbevegelse, 19–24 February 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.4–29.1% | 24.0–29.6% | 23.2–30.5% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 16.8% | 15.3–18.4% | 14.9–18.8% | 14.5–19.2% | 13.9–20.0% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 13.3% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.6–15.2% | 11.3–15.6% | 10.7–16.3% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.8% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 5.9–10.4% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–6.0% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0.3% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 46 | 44–50 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 41–54 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 33 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 27–37 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 23 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 18–30 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 17 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 14 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 10–19 |
| Rødt | 8 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 7–14 |
| Venstre | 8 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 3–14 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 7 | 3–9 | 2–10 | 2–10 | 2–11 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 7 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–9 | 2–10 |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–7 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 94% | |
| 44 | 8% | 90% | |
| 45 | 26% | 82% | |
| 46 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 47 | 11% | 48% | |
| 48 | 12% | 37% | |
| 49 | 12% | 26% | |
| 50 | 8% | 13% | |
| 51 | 2% | 6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 94% | |
| 31 | 10% | 88% | |
| 32 | 18% | 78% | |
| 33 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 34 | 31% | 43% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 3% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 20 | 5% | 97% | |
| 21 | 13% | 93% | Last Result |
| 22 | 7% | 80% | |
| 23 | 36% | 73% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 37% | |
| 25 | 10% | 23% | |
| 26 | 7% | 13% | |
| 27 | 2% | 6% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 14 | 4% | 98% | |
| 15 | 11% | 94% | |
| 16 | 31% | 83% | |
| 17 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 14% | 40% | |
| 19 | 15% | 26% | |
| 20 | 5% | 11% | |
| 21 | 4% | 6% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 4% | 97% | |
| 12 | 4% | 93% | |
| 13 | 15% | 90% | |
| 14 | 48% | 74% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 27% | |
| 16 | 7% | 14% | |
| 17 | 5% | 7% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 9 | 38% | 90% | |
| 10 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 14% | 28% | |
| 12 | 11% | 14% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 18% | 98% | Last Result |
| 9 | 20% | 80% | |
| 10 | 37% | 60% | Median |
| 11 | 16% | 23% | |
| 12 | 6% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 86% | |
| 5 | 0% | 86% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 7 | 43% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 43% | |
| 9 | 13% | 20% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 16% | 100% | |
| 3 | 16% | 84% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 67% | |
| 5 | 0% | 67% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 7 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 38% | 48% | |
| 9 | 8% | 10% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Industri- og Næringspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 74% | |
| 2 | 52% | 59% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 100 | 100% | 96–104 | 95–105 | 94–106 | 91–109 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 71 | 93 | 99.2% | 89–96 | 88–97 | 86–98 | 84–100 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 86 | 68% | 82–90 | 81–91 | 79–91 | 76–94 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 80 | 13% | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–88 | 72–90 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 79 | 8% | 76–84 | 75–86 | 73–87 | 71–89 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 95 | 78 | 1.2% | 73–80 | 70–82 | 70–83 | 67–85 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt | 97 | 73 | 0% | 71–78 | 70–78 | 68–80 | 66–82 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 71 | 0% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–79 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 69 | 0% | 67–74 | 65–75 | 64–77 | 63–78 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 66 | 0% | 63–71 | 61–71 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 64 | 0% | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 57–71 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 63 | 0% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 82 | 61 | 0% | 55–64 | 53–65 | 52–66 | 49–67 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 54 | 0% | 48–56 | 47–57 | 45–58 | 45–60 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 50 | 0% | 47–52 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 44–57 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 47 | 0% | 44–49 | 42–50 | 42–51 | 41–53 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 31 | 0% | 25–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 | 23–37 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 3% | 95% | |
| 96 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 97 | 7% | 85% | |
| 98 | 9% | 78% | |
| 99 | 9% | 69% | |
| 100 | 29% | 60% | Median |
| 101 | 13% | 31% | |
| 102 | 2% | 17% | |
| 103 | 4% | 15% | |
| 104 | 4% | 11% | |
| 105 | 3% | 7% | |
| 106 | 2% | 4% | |
| 107 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 87 | 2% | 97% | |
| 88 | 3% | 96% | |
| 89 | 6% | 93% | |
| 90 | 7% | 87% | |
| 91 | 10% | 79% | |
| 92 | 7% | 69% | |
| 93 | 31% | 62% | Median |
| 94 | 9% | 31% | |
| 95 | 6% | 22% | |
| 96 | 7% | 16% | |
| 97 | 6% | 9% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 81 | 5% | 96% | |
| 82 | 7% | 90% | |
| 83 | 6% | 83% | |
| 84 | 10% | 77% | |
| 85 | 6% | 68% | Majority |
| 86 | 31% | 62% | Median |
| 87 | 9% | 31% | |
| 88 | 7% | 22% | |
| 89 | 4% | 15% | |
| 90 | 6% | 11% | |
| 91 | 3% | 5% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 96% | |
| 77 | 5% | 93% | |
| 78 | 7% | 88% | |
| 79 | 8% | 82% | |
| 80 | 30% | 74% | |
| 81 | 5% | 44% | Median |
| 82 | 13% | 39% | |
| 83 | 4% | 26% | |
| 84 | 9% | 22% | |
| 85 | 6% | 13% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 4% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 3% | 96% | |
| 76 | 3% | 93% | |
| 77 | 10% | 90% | |
| 78 | 29% | 80% | |
| 79 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 80 | 17% | 44% | |
| 81 | 6% | 27% | |
| 82 | 5% | 22% | |
| 83 | 5% | 16% | |
| 84 | 3% | 11% | |
| 85 | 2% | 8% | Majority |
| 86 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 87 | 3% | 5% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 95% | |
| 72 | 3% | 93% | |
| 73 | 3% | 91% | |
| 74 | 5% | 87% | |
| 75 | 10% | 83% | |
| 76 | 9% | 73% | |
| 77 | 11% | 64% | |
| 78 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 79 | 30% | 47% | |
| 80 | 7% | 16% | |
| 81 | 3% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 70 | 2% | 95% | |
| 71 | 12% | 93% | |
| 72 | 7% | 82% | |
| 73 | 29% | 75% | |
| 74 | 13% | 45% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 32% | |
| 76 | 5% | 23% | |
| 77 | 7% | 18% | |
| 78 | 7% | 12% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 6% | 88% | |
| 69 | 8% | 82% | |
| 70 | 7% | 74% | |
| 71 | 27% | 66% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 39% | |
| 73 | 11% | 27% | |
| 74 | 3% | 16% | |
| 75 | 6% | 13% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 3% | 94% | |
| 67 | 9% | 91% | |
| 68 | 25% | 82% | |
| 69 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 48% | |
| 71 | 10% | 38% | |
| 72 | 11% | 28% | |
| 73 | 6% | 17% | |
| 74 | 3% | 12% | |
| 75 | 5% | 9% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 95% | |
| 63 | 3% | 92% | |
| 64 | 5% | 89% | |
| 65 | 7% | 84% | |
| 66 | 31% | 76% | |
| 67 | 10% | 46% | Median |
| 68 | 8% | 36% | |
| 69 | 9% | 28% | |
| 70 | 7% | 19% | |
| 71 | 7% | 12% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 4% | 97% | |
| 61 | 11% | 93% | |
| 62 | 9% | 83% | |
| 63 | 8% | 74% | |
| 64 | 28% | 66% | Median |
| 65 | 17% | 38% | |
| 66 | 8% | 21% | |
| 67 | 6% | 13% | |
| 68 | 3% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 97% | |
| 58 | 8% | 93% | |
| 59 | 6% | 85% | |
| 60 | 6% | 79% | |
| 61 | 4% | 73% | |
| 62 | 6% | 69% | |
| 63 | 31% | 63% | Median |
| 64 | 8% | 32% | |
| 65 | 11% | 24% | |
| 66 | 6% | 13% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 54 | 2% | 94% | |
| 55 | 3% | 92% | |
| 56 | 5% | 88% | |
| 57 | 7% | 84% | |
| 58 | 11% | 77% | |
| 59 | 6% | 66% | |
| 60 | 7% | 59% | |
| 61 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 62 | 6% | 42% | |
| 63 | 26% | 36% | |
| 64 | 3% | 11% | |
| 65 | 4% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 3% | 96% | |
| 48 | 6% | 93% | |
| 49 | 5% | 87% | |
| 50 | 9% | 81% | |
| 51 | 7% | 73% | |
| 52 | 7% | 66% | |
| 53 | 7% | 59% | |
| 54 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 7% | 43% | |
| 56 | 26% | 36% | |
| 57 | 5% | 9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 8% | 96% | |
| 48 | 12% | 88% | |
| 49 | 11% | 76% | |
| 50 | 33% | 65% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 32% | |
| 52 | 10% | 20% | |
| 53 | 4% | 10% | |
| 54 | 3% | 6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 43 | 2% | 93% | |
| 44 | 7% | 91% | |
| 45 | 8% | 84% | |
| 46 | 13% | 76% | |
| 47 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 48 | 32% | 47% | |
| 49 | 7% | 16% | |
| 50 | 5% | 9% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 25 | 8% | 96% | |
| 26 | 6% | 88% | |
| 27 | 6% | 83% | |
| 28 | 10% | 76% | |
| 29 | 9% | 66% | |
| 30 | 7% | 57% | |
| 31 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 32 | 30% | 44% | |
| 33 | 8% | 14% | |
| 34 | 2% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinion Perduco
- Commissioner(s): Dagsavisen, Fagbladet and FriFagbevegelse
- Fieldwork period: 19–24 February 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 985
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%