Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 5–9 March 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 27.0% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.2–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 15.1% | 13.8–16.7% | 13.4–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.3% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.4–12.2% | 7.9–12.8% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.5% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.3–5.3% |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 48 | 44–50 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 40–55 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 33 | 31–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 27 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 23–34 | 21–35 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 | 13–23 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 11 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| Rødt | 8 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| Venstre | 8 | 11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–15 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 3 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–9 | 2–10 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 2 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 1–9 |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 43 | 3% | 93% | |
| 44 | 4% | 90% | |
| 45 | 7% | 86% | |
| 46 | 13% | 79% | |
| 47 | 10% | 66% | |
| 48 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 49 | 23% | 43% | |
| 50 | 11% | 20% | |
| 51 | 4% | 9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 31 | 7% | 97% | |
| 32 | 21% | 90% | |
| 33 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 34 | 24% | 49% | |
| 35 | 5% | 24% | |
| 36 | 5% | 19% | |
| 37 | 6% | 15% | |
| 38 | 3% | 9% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98% | |
| 24 | 5% | 93% | |
| 25 | 21% | 88% | |
| 26 | 9% | 67% | |
| 27 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 28 | 7% | 43% | |
| 29 | 9% | 36% | |
| 30 | 4% | 27% | |
| 31 | 18% | 23% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 98% | |
| 15 | 10% | 95% | |
| 16 | 9% | 85% | |
| 17 | 13% | 76% | |
| 18 | 32% | 63% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 31% | |
| 20 | 12% | 17% | |
| 21 | 3% | 6% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | |
| 10 | 8% | 90% | |
| 11 | 33% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 7% | 50% | |
| 13 | 20% | 43% | |
| 14 | 18% | 22% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 9 | 11% | 97% | |
| 10 | 20% | 86% | |
| 11 | 32% | 66% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 34% | |
| 13 | 8% | 11% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 12% | 95% | |
| 10 | 25% | 83% | |
| 11 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 26% | |
| 13 | 6% | 8% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 20% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 37% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 43% | |
| 5 | 0% | 43% | |
| 6 | 2% | 43% | |
| 7 | 15% | 42% | |
| 8 | 18% | 26% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 53% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 31% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 21% | |
| 5 | 0% | 21% | |
| 6 | 2% | 21% | |
| 7 | 10% | 19% | |
| 8 | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Industri- og Næringspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 103 | 100% | 98–106 | 97–107 | 95–108 | 92–110 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 71 | 93 | 99.8% | 89–97 | 88–99 | 87–101 | 86–102 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 91 | 92% | 86–95 | 84–96 | 83–97 | 81–100 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 85 | 58% | 81–91 | 79–91 | 79–93 | 77–94 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 77 | 3% | 73–82 | 72–84 | 71–85 | 68–87 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 74 | 0.1% | 71–80 | 69–81 | 68–82 | 66–83 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt | 97 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 69–80 | 67–81 | 66–82 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 95 | 72 | 0% | 66–77 | 65–77 | 65–79 | 64–81 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 66 | 0% | 62–72 | 62–72 | 61–74 | 58–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 65 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–73 | 58–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 63 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–69 | 57–70 | 56–71 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 63 | 0% | 59–67 | 57–68 | 55–69 | 55–72 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 82 | 54 | 0% | 48–59 | 48–60 | 47–62 | 45–64 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 50 | 0% | 46–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 | 44–60 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 48–57 | 47–57 | 44–59 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 45 | 0% | 43–49 | 42–51 | 41–51 | 39–52 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 27 | 0% | 24–32 | 23–33 | 21–34 | 20–35 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 97 | 5% | 96% | |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 5% | 85% | |
| 100 | 7% | 80% | Median |
| 101 | 9% | 73% | |
| 102 | 13% | 64% | |
| 103 | 4% | 51% | |
| 104 | 13% | 47% | |
| 105 | 17% | 34% | |
| 106 | 8% | 17% | |
| 107 | 5% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 86 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 88 | 4% | 97% | |
| 89 | 5% | 94% | |
| 90 | 9% | 89% | |
| 91 | 5% | 80% | Median |
| 92 | 12% | 75% | |
| 93 | 13% | 63% | |
| 94 | 6% | 49% | |
| 95 | 11% | 43% | |
| 96 | 17% | 32% | |
| 97 | 6% | 15% | |
| 98 | 4% | 10% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 100 | 2% | 5% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 84 | 4% | 97% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 92% | Majority |
| 86 | 7% | 91% | |
| 87 | 3% | 84% | |
| 88 | 11% | 81% | |
| 89 | 7% | 70% | Median |
| 90 | 11% | 63% | |
| 91 | 12% | 52% | |
| 92 | 5% | 40% | |
| 93 | 8% | 36% | |
| 94 | 17% | 28% | |
| 95 | 4% | 11% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 3% | 98% | |
| 80 | 4% | 95% | |
| 81 | 8% | 91% | |
| 82 | 3% | 83% | |
| 83 | 13% | 80% | |
| 84 | 9% | 67% | |
| 85 | 9% | 58% | Majority |
| 86 | 10% | 49% | Median |
| 87 | 9% | 39% | |
| 88 | 3% | 30% | |
| 89 | 4% | 27% | |
| 90 | 2% | 22% | |
| 91 | 16% | 20% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 93 | 3% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 96% | |
| 73 | 4% | 93% | |
| 74 | 17% | 89% | |
| 75 | 8% | 72% | Median |
| 76 | 5% | 64% | |
| 77 | 12% | 60% | |
| 78 | 11% | 48% | |
| 79 | 7% | 37% | |
| 80 | 11% | 30% | |
| 81 | 3% | 19% | |
| 82 | 7% | 16% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 84 | 4% | 8% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 3% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 87 | 2% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 69 | 4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 2% | 92% | |
| 71 | 13% | 90% | |
| 72 | 8% | 77% | |
| 73 | 11% | 69% | |
| 74 | 9% | 58% | |
| 75 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 76 | 3% | 41% | |
| 77 | 12% | 39% | |
| 78 | 3% | 27% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 24% | |
| 80 | 17% | 23% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 70 | 4% | 94% | |
| 71 | 6% | 90% | |
| 72 | 17% | 85% | |
| 73 | 11% | 68% | Median |
| 74 | 6% | 57% | |
| 75 | 14% | 51% | |
| 76 | 12% | 37% | |
| 77 | 5% | 25% | |
| 78 | 9% | 20% | |
| 79 | 5% | 11% | |
| 80 | 4% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 14% | 94% | |
| 67 | 2% | 80% | Median |
| 68 | 3% | 79% | |
| 69 | 5% | 76% | |
| 70 | 12% | 71% | |
| 71 | 8% | 59% | |
| 72 | 6% | 51% | |
| 73 | 13% | 44% | |
| 74 | 9% | 31% | |
| 75 | 8% | 22% | |
| 76 | 3% | 14% | |
| 77 | 6% | 11% | |
| 78 | 2% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 6% | 96% | |
| 63 | 19% | 90% | |
| 64 | 4% | 71% | Median |
| 65 | 10% | 67% | |
| 66 | 8% | 57% | |
| 67 | 12% | 48% | |
| 68 | 10% | 37% | |
| 69 | 5% | 27% | |
| 70 | 4% | 22% | |
| 71 | 4% | 18% | |
| 72 | 10% | 14% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 75 | 2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 96% | |
| 62 | 8% | 92% | |
| 63 | 17% | 83% | |
| 64 | 13% | 66% | Median |
| 65 | 4% | 53% | |
| 66 | 13% | 49% | |
| 67 | 9% | 36% | |
| 68 | 7% | 27% | |
| 69 | 5% | 20% | |
| 70 | 6% | 15% | |
| 71 | 5% | 9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 97% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 20% | 88% | |
| 62 | 6% | 68% | Median |
| 63 | 13% | 61% | |
| 64 | 13% | 48% | |
| 65 | 15% | 36% | |
| 66 | 7% | 21% | |
| 67 | 3% | 14% | |
| 68 | 3% | 11% | |
| 69 | 5% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 58 | 4% | 95% | |
| 59 | 5% | 91% | |
| 60 | 4% | 86% | |
| 61 | 7% | 81% | |
| 62 | 9% | 74% | Median |
| 63 | 24% | 65% | |
| 64 | 12% | 41% | |
| 65 | 5% | 29% | |
| 66 | 10% | 24% | |
| 67 | 5% | 14% | |
| 68 | 5% | 9% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 48 | 16% | 97% | |
| 49 | 2% | 81% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 79% | |
| 51 | 5% | 71% | |
| 52 | 7% | 66% | |
| 53 | 7% | 60% | |
| 54 | 6% | 53% | |
| 55 | 16% | 47% | |
| 56 | 6% | 31% | |
| 57 | 6% | 26% | |
| 58 | 5% | 20% | |
| 59 | 6% | 15% | |
| 60 | 5% | 9% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 14% | 96% | |
| 47 | 5% | 81% | Median |
| 48 | 10% | 76% | |
| 49 | 4% | 66% | |
| 50 | 14% | 62% | |
| 51 | 8% | 48% | |
| 52 | 7% | 41% | |
| 53 | 15% | 34% | |
| 54 | 4% | 19% | |
| 55 | 4% | 15% | |
| 56 | 6% | 11% | |
| 57 | 2% | 5% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 96% | |
| 49 | 6% | 89% | |
| 50 | 21% | 83% | |
| 51 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 52 | 18% | 47% | |
| 53 | 10% | 29% | |
| 54 | 5% | 19% | |
| 55 | 4% | 13% | |
| 56 | 3% | 10% | |
| 57 | 4% | 6% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 16% | 92% | |
| 44 | 10% | 76% | Median |
| 45 | 20% | 66% | |
| 46 | 8% | 46% | |
| 47 | 16% | 38% | |
| 48 | 5% | 23% | |
| 49 | 8% | 17% | |
| 50 | 5% | 10% | |
| 51 | 4% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 22 | 2% | 97% | |
| 23 | 4% | 96% | |
| 24 | 11% | 92% | |
| 25 | 18% | 80% | Median |
| 26 | 6% | 63% | |
| 27 | 11% | 57% | |
| 28 | 6% | 46% | |
| 29 | 12% | 40% | |
| 30 | 3% | 28% | |
| 31 | 11% | 25% | |
| 32 | 6% | 14% | |
| 33 | 5% | 8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 5–9 March 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 997
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.04%