Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 2–7 May 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 25.9% | 24.2–27.7% | 23.7–28.3% | 23.3–28.7% | 22.5–29.6% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.2% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Pensjonistpartiet | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Konservativt | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 45 | 43–49 | 41–51 | 41–51 | 39–53 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 39 | 35–43 | 33–43 | 33–43 | 32–45 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 25 | 24–31 | 23–33 | 23–33 | 21–35 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 15 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–16 | 9–17 |
| Rødt | 8 | 11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 1–14 |
| Venstre | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 3–12 | 3–12 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 7 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–10 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 2 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 1–9 |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
| Pensjonistpartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konservativt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 4% | 98% | |
| 42 | 2% | 94% | |
| 43 | 16% | 92% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 76% | |
| 45 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 46 | 7% | 48% | |
| 47 | 19% | 41% | |
| 48 | 6% | 22% | |
| 49 | 9% | 16% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 51 | 4% | 6% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 53 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 5% | 95% | |
| 35 | 14% | 90% | |
| 36 | 13% | 76% | |
| 37 | 9% | 64% | |
| 38 | 4% | 55% | |
| 39 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 40 | 7% | 40% | |
| 41 | 4% | 33% | |
| 42 | 13% | 29% | |
| 43 | 13% | 15% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 22 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98% | |
| 24 | 11% | 93% | |
| 25 | 46% | 83% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 36% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 32% | |
| 28 | 4% | 31% | |
| 29 | 5% | 26% | |
| 30 | 9% | 21% | |
| 31 | 4% | 12% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 33 | 5% | 7% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 14 | 24% | 92% | |
| 15 | 22% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 46% | |
| 17 | 15% | 28% | |
| 18 | 11% | 13% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 11 | 18% | 93% | |
| 12 | 22% | 74% | |
| 13 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 3% | 48% | |
| 15 | 38% | 45% | |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 7% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 9 | 13% | 92% | |
| 10 | 27% | 79% | |
| 11 | 29% | 52% | Median |
| 12 | 20% | 23% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 7 | 5% | 97% | |
| 8 | 20% | 92% | Last Result |
| 9 | 40% | 72% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 33% | |
| 11 | 13% | 17% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 28% | 81% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 53% | |
| 5 | 0% | 53% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 53% | |
| 7 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 28% | |
| 9 | 3% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 38% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 48% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 33% | |
| 5 | 0% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 33% | |
| 7 | 24% | 32% | |
| 8 | 6% | 8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Industri- og Næringspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Pensjonistpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konservativt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 99 | 100% | 96–105 | 95–109 | 95–109 | 91–111 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 71 | 89 | 99.1% | 87–96 | 86–98 | 86–99 | 84–102 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 85 | 70% | 82–93 | 80–95 | 80–97 | 79–99 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 80 | 21% | 78–88 | 78–91 | 77–94 | 74–94 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 83 | 14% | 75–86 | 73–88 | 71–88 | 69–89 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 71 | 0% | 67–79 | 67–82 | 67–84 | 66–84 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt | 97 | 79 | 0.6% | 72–81 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 66–85 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 95 | 77 | 0.2% | 71–80 | 68–81 | 64–82 | 64–84 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 72 | 0% | 65–75 | 64–78 | 61–78 | 60–79 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 69 | 0% | 63–72 | 59–73 | 59–73 | 57–77 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 69 | 0% | 63–71 | 60–71 | 60–71 | 57–74 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 82 | 61 | 0% | 56–65 | 52–66 | 50–68 | 50–69 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 60 | 0% | 55–64 | 55–64 | 53–66 | 52–68 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 57 | 0% | 52–63 | 50–63 | 49–63 | 46–65 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 54 | 0% | 50–59 | 48–59 | 48–59 | 45–60 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 52 | 0% | 48–55 | 46–55 | 45–56 | 42–59 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 28 | 0% | 23–30 | 22–32 | 20–34 | 16–34 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 6% | 98% | |
| 96 | 13% | 92% | Last Result |
| 97 | 3% | 80% | |
| 98 | 5% | 76% | |
| 99 | 30% | 71% | Median |
| 100 | 15% | 42% | |
| 101 | 7% | 27% | |
| 102 | 4% | 20% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 104 | 2% | 15% | |
| 105 | 4% | 13% | |
| 106 | 2% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 8% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 109 | 5% | 6% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 87 | 16% | 94% | |
| 88 | 15% | 79% | Median |
| 89 | 16% | 64% | |
| 90 | 6% | 48% | |
| 91 | 16% | 42% | |
| 92 | 3% | 25% | |
| 93 | 3% | 22% | |
| 94 | 6% | 20% | |
| 95 | 3% | 14% | |
| 96 | 4% | 11% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 98 | 3% | 6% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 93% | |
| 82 | 4% | 91% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 84 | 16% | 86% | |
| 85 | 23% | 70% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 47% | Median |
| 87 | 17% | 45% | |
| 88 | 2% | 28% | |
| 89 | 7% | 27% | |
| 90 | 3% | 20% | |
| 91 | 3% | 17% | |
| 92 | 3% | 14% | |
| 93 | 1.5% | 11% | |
| 94 | 4% | 9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 97 | 3% | 4% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 29% | 96% | |
| 79 | 16% | 67% | Median |
| 80 | 5% | 51% | |
| 81 | 16% | 47% | |
| 82 | 4% | 30% | |
| 83 | 3% | 26% | |
| 84 | 3% | 24% | |
| 85 | 2% | 21% | Majority |
| 86 | 4% | 19% | |
| 87 | 4% | 15% | |
| 88 | 4% | 12% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 91 | 3% | 6% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 94 | 3% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 74 | 4% | 95% | |
| 75 | 2% | 91% | |
| 76 | 4% | 89% | |
| 77 | 3% | 86% | |
| 78 | 2% | 82% | |
| 79 | 7% | 80% | |
| 80 | 2% | 74% | Median |
| 81 | 17% | 72% | |
| 82 | 3% | 54% | |
| 83 | 22% | 52% | |
| 84 | 16% | 30% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 14% | Majority |
| 86 | 4% | 13% | |
| 87 | 2% | 9% | |
| 88 | 6% | 7% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 68 | 6% | 89% | |
| 69 | 3% | 83% | |
| 70 | 27% | 80% | Median |
| 71 | 5% | 53% | |
| 72 | 19% | 48% | |
| 73 | 3% | 30% | |
| 74 | 2% | 27% | |
| 75 | 5% | 25% | |
| 76 | 4% | 21% | |
| 77 | 3% | 17% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 79 | 5% | 13% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 83 | 2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 3% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 97% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 72 | 4% | 93% | |
| 73 | 3% | 89% | |
| 74 | 6% | 86% | |
| 75 | 2% | 80% | |
| 76 | 3% | 78% | |
| 77 | 16% | 75% | |
| 78 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 79 | 16% | 52% | |
| 80 | 15% | 36% | |
| 81 | 16% | 21% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 3% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 71 | 3% | 91% | |
| 72 | 4% | 88% | |
| 73 | 6% | 84% | |
| 74 | 5% | 78% | |
| 75 | 15% | 73% | |
| 76 | 5% | 59% | Median |
| 77 | 4% | 54% | |
| 78 | 3% | 50% | |
| 79 | 33% | 46% | |
| 80 | 8% | 14% | |
| 81 | 3% | 6% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 4% | 94% | |
| 66 | 2% | 89% | |
| 67 | 3% | 87% | |
| 68 | 5% | 84% | |
| 69 | 6% | 79% | Median |
| 70 | 2% | 73% | |
| 71 | 17% | 71% | |
| 72 | 36% | 54% | |
| 73 | 3% | 19% | |
| 74 | 2% | 16% | |
| 75 | 5% | 14% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 7% | 8% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 61 | 2% | 94% | |
| 62 | 2% | 92% | |
| 63 | 4% | 91% | |
| 64 | 2% | 86% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 66 | 4% | 83% | |
| 67 | 7% | 79% | Median |
| 68 | 15% | 73% | |
| 69 | 29% | 58% | |
| 70 | 5% | 28% | |
| 71 | 3% | 24% | |
| 72 | 13% | 20% | Last Result |
| 73 | 6% | 8% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 63 | 4% | 92% | |
| 64 | 5% | 88% | |
| 65 | 15% | 83% | |
| 66 | 5% | 68% | |
| 67 | 7% | 62% | Median |
| 68 | 5% | 55% | |
| 69 | 28% | 51% | |
| 70 | 12% | 23% | |
| 71 | 9% | 11% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 52 | 2% | 96% | |
| 53 | 2% | 94% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 55 | 2% | 92% | |
| 56 | 4% | 90% | |
| 57 | 3% | 86% | |
| 58 | 8% | 84% | |
| 59 | 2% | 76% | |
| 60 | 19% | 74% | |
| 61 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 62 | 10% | 41% | |
| 63 | 3% | 31% | |
| 64 | 7% | 28% | |
| 65 | 16% | 22% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 69 | 2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 55 | 9% | 96% | |
| 56 | 3% | 87% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 58 | 2% | 83% | |
| 59 | 19% | 81% | |
| 60 | 16% | 61% | |
| 61 | 13% | 45% | Median |
| 62 | 15% | 32% | |
| 63 | 3% | 18% | |
| 64 | 10% | 15% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 50 | 3% | 95% | |
| 51 | 2% | 93% | |
| 52 | 3% | 91% | |
| 53 | 17% | 88% | |
| 54 | 4% | 72% | |
| 55 | 4% | 68% | |
| 56 | 6% | 64% | |
| 57 | 8% | 58% | |
| 58 | 15% | 50% | |
| 59 | 4% | 35% | Median |
| 60 | 9% | 31% | |
| 61 | 4% | 21% | |
| 62 | 2% | 17% | |
| 63 | 13% | 15% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 5% | 98% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 50 | 15% | 92% | |
| 51 | 5% | 77% | |
| 52 | 5% | 72% | |
| 53 | 5% | 67% | |
| 54 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 46% | |
| 56 | 10% | 38% | |
| 57 | 14% | 29% | |
| 58 | 3% | 14% | |
| 59 | 11% | 12% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 3% | 94% | |
| 48 | 4% | 91% | |
| 49 | 4% | 86% | |
| 50 | 17% | 83% | |
| 51 | 16% | 66% | |
| 52 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 53 | 12% | 43% | |
| 54 | 7% | 31% | |
| 55 | 21% | 24% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 98% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 21 | 2% | 97% | |
| 22 | 4% | 95% | |
| 23 | 4% | 92% | |
| 24 | 2% | 88% | |
| 25 | 7% | 86% | |
| 26 | 4% | 79% | |
| 27 | 22% | 75% | |
| 28 | 4% | 53% | |
| 29 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 30 | 13% | 22% | |
| 31 | 4% | 9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Respons Analyse
- Commissioner(s): VG
- Fieldwork period: 2–7 May 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.95%